NFL Stacking Options for Week 11
Let the boys at DFSR look at some stacks you can take advantage of this weekend on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Green Bay Packers
Jordy Nelson peaked last week with 18 targets, catching 12 for 126 yards and a touchdown. This was against a Titans’ defense (we will pick on them soon once again) who ranks 24th in Defense vs. the Pass. The matchup is much harder for Nelson this week as he will most likely be facing elite corner Josh Norman.
I say most likely as I thought he would be shadowing Stefon Diggs last week, but this was not the case, and Diggs blew up for 164 yards. It will be a scenario where I will want to build multiple Packers stacks and interchange the options. With the projected volume I will be trying to roster at least two of the WR in each lineup.
The great thing about Nelson is his price that comes in under $8K on both sites. Like James mentioned on the DFSR Week 11 Value Plays Podcast he is more like a mid $8K player. Take advantage in a projected high-scoring game.
If the Redskins do decide to shut down Jordy Nelson, we have Aaron Rodgers in the turn the entire target share over to his secondary options. Davante Adams has been excellent lately leading the team with 47 targets over the last four games with two 100 yard game and three touchdowns. He gets, by far, the best matchup of the three Packers wideouts as he should see Bashaud Breeland who occupies the right side of the defense over 70% of time.
When looking at PFF’s cornerback rankings, Breeland stands out in a good way for fantasy as he ranks 111th of 117 ranked corners. For value this week I think Cobb makes a great play with Adams or on his own. Since returning from injury he has seen his target share rise from two in his first game back to eight last game.
If Jordy Nelson is shut down that total could hit double digits for the first time since Week 7 where he had 10+ for three straight weeks. The Packers are on a three-game losing streak and will be going into Sunday Night Football extremely motivated as they sit just one game out of the division lead in the NFC North. This game could easily be the highest scoring game of the week. Lock and load!
Speaking of high totals, we will settle in on the highest of the week (53) in the AFC South matchup between the Colts and the Titans. I am not sure I totally agree with the Vegas line giving the Colts three points at home and while this isn’t a betting article game flow and game script is huge when predicting fantasy points. When I first look at this matchup I turn to DVOA ranks for both offense and defense and the Titans have the bigger edge in overall, rushing and passing offense to opponent defense differential.
The Titans have an elite running back in DeMarco Murray who has been taking some of the upside away from Mariota which is crazy to say because as Mariota has been amazing with multiple touchdown passes in six straight games. The point I am trying to make is that Frank Gore is not an elite running back anymore which is why we see the Colts rely much more on the pass. Looking at the Player Lab tool we quickly see the Colts are one of the seven teams that rely on 70%+ of the overall yards on passing but the big standout is that they get 88% of their touchdowns via the pass.
I would say Andrew Luck is in for big game and is projected for 39 passing attempts and has two very viable options to target. T.Y. Hilton has been the clear #1 for Luck this season as he has been the healthiest and most productive. He is averaging 10.1 targets per game and torched the Titans back in Week 7 catching seven of 12 for 133 yards and a touchdown.
If you are looking for value and lower ownership pair Luck with Donte Moncrief who comes at a low end $6K price on both sites. He has received 15 targets over the last two weeks and while he has only caught seven of them he has touchdowns in both games.
Looking at the Player Lab once again we see the Titans ranking 24th in Defense vs. the Pass. Expect to see a lot of Colts lineups at the top of tournaments on Sunday.
Chris Durell is a correspondent at FantasyPros, and he’s also a contributor of Daily Fantasy Sports Rankings, a site that gives daily fantasy picks for all of the major sports every day and offers access to its projection system. To hear more from Doug, look out for his weekly column here, or follow DFSR @dailyfantasysr.