Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for five straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.
We are going to jump right into the projection model this week. Last week’s results were in line with what we have seen all season, with a rank correlation of 0.390, and edging out consensus rankings for an eighth consecutive week. There were some duds – Minnesota and Baltimore in particular stung pretty badly – but also some highly ranked teams who performed very well.
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Week 16 D/ST Scoring (Team, expected points – tier) – all scoring assumes MFL Standard, from www.myfantasyleague.com.
- New England Patriots, 11.0 – Tier 1 (vs NYJ)
- San Diego Chargers, 10.7 – Tier 1 (at CLE)
- Seattle Seahawks, 10.3 – Tier 1 (vs ARI)
- Kansas City Chiefs, 10.3 – Tier 1 (vs DEN)
- Buffalo Bills, 9.8 – Tier 2 (vs MIA)
- Green Bay Packers, 9.5 – Tier 2 (vs MIN)
- New York Giants, 9.2 – Tier 2 (at PHI)
- Dallas Cowboys, 9.0 – Tier 2 (vs DET)
- Washington Redskins, 8.8 – Tier 2.5 (at CHI)
- Pittsburgh Steelers, 8.6 – Tier 3 (vs BAL)
- Tennessee Titans, 8.4 – Tier 3 (at JAX)
- San Francisco 49ers, 8.4 – Tier 3 (at LA)
- Denver Broncos, 8.4 – Tier 3 (at KC)
- Houston Texans, 8.2 – Tier 3 (vs CIN)
- Los Angeles Rams, 8.1 – Tier 3 (vs SF)
- Miami Dolphins, 8.0 – Tier 3 (at BUF)
Tier 1 – New England, San Diego, Seattle, Kansas City
The most interesting options will come later on because these are all pretty obvious up at the top. We have the Browns’ opponent (San Diego), the Jets’ opponent (New England), the top-scoring D/ST in 2016 (Kansas City), and the Seahawks at home in a decent matchup.
Boring, right? None of those D/STs are likely to be available, and if you have them on your roster you likely already know how good they are. Just a quick run through for anybody with two Tier 1 D/STs on the roster:
The Chiefs are still matchup-proof and still probably the best fantasy play. They are at home on Sunday Night, and are favored in a low-scoring game and a good D/ST matchup – the Broncos are the 6th most generous team to opposing D/STs.
New England and San Diego each have top matchups, but the Patriots profile looks slightly better. Consider that on the year, the two D/STs are tied for 12th in season scoring, and their opponents are the second and third most generous matchups in the game. However, the Patriots get their game at home, and that alone is enough to favor them in a tight choice.
That leaves the Seahawks, who still have huge question marks, but are still too good to drop too far down any rankings. They are at home, they are favored, and the scoring profile is fairly low. The Seahawks are coming off a great game against the Rams, but it was against the best matchup in the league for D/STs… and in that game, they still only scored 11 points and converted zero turnovers. Overall, the matchup and venue are enough to elevate an otherwise league-average D/ST into the worst of the tier 1 options.
Let’s dive a little deeper.
Tier 2 – Buffalo, Green Bay, New York Giants, Dallas
Here we have a few options that might be available to stream.
The Bills are likely owned everywhere after their Week 15 game against the Browns. They had a great day with 5 sacks, but a lack of turnovers left things a little underwhelming. However, another home game against Miami is another great matchup after the injury to Ryan Tannehill. Expect another game with 3-5 sacks, as well as an increased shot at turnovers. The Bills D/ST are a great piece for the championship game, and they are my favorite on this tier.
What has been the top D/ST over the last 8 weeks? If you guessed the New York Giants, you are right. They have outscored even the Chiefs with a robust 12.75 points per game. They go on the road in Week 16 or else their projection would be Tier 1, but they get a Philadelphia Eagles team that has been pretty dreadful. Prior to last week’s game, the Eagles had allowed scores of 10+ to opposing D/STs in four straight games (and six overall). The matchup could be a lot better, but the Giants are still one of the league’s best defenses and a very nice second-half surprise.
Green Bay is available in quite a few leagues right now and makes for a decent play, even if it is a little bit capped with regard to its upside. The only score above 12 all season for Green Bay is their Week 14 game against Seattle, and that took 5 interceptions! Still, if this game goes as expected, the Packers should be able to dial up their pass rush a little and force the Vikings to throw. No part of the Vikings offense has been clicking lately, and over the last half-season have been a good matchup for opposing D/STs. While there is plenty to worry about with Green Bay here, the situation more than makes up for it, and they get the nod over fellow Tier 2 streamer Dallas.
Speaking of the Cowboys, they are coming off an excellent game against the Buccaneers. Four sacks, three interceptions, and a fumble recovery were enough for 16 points, and it marked the third week in a row with 9+ points. The Cowboys have been a pleasant surprise lately, and they get a Week 16 game at home against the Lions. Detroit is not a great matchup, but it really has not been bad either. Again over the last 8 weeks, they have been a top 12 matchup for opposing D/STs. If this one were on the road it would probably be a mistake, but a home game gives the Cowboys just enough of an edge (evidence by their spread of -7!) that they profile well enough.
I would rate the Bills and Giants are a step up from the other two, but the projection model does have them all on the same tier.
Tier 2.5 – Washington
The nearer we get to Week 17, the weirder we can expect a game like this to be. Here, the Redskins are favored by just 3 on the road, facing a bad and 3-11 Chicago Bears team. The Bears have been eliminated from the playoffs for a while, but the Redskins are teetering on the edge. They are half a game back of two different teams and could find their season over in a hurry, but does that even really matter? Probably more for next week than it does for Week 16.
Over 14 games, the Redskins started off great, but they have been horrible lately: Just one 10+ score since their bye, and in just one of their last eight games. The Bears have been a top 12 D/ST matchup over the season but have actually been better since their starting QB went down. The Redskins will need a 3-4+ sack game to put enough pressure on the Bears, and likely will need a turnover or two as well. This is one to stay away from if you can.
Tier 3 – Pittsburgh, Tennessee, San Francisco, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Philadelphia
Whew, this looks fun to sort out.
The Broncos are in such an awkward spot. First, it is a road game, and second, it is against a Chiefs team that is really hard to capitalize on with a D/ST. Their season-long numbers have been fine, but they scored much better to start the season than they have lately. Over their recent eight-game lull, they even have scores of 9, 20, 10, and 17, and they come in at just 10th overall at the position. Especially after last week’s game against the Patriots, it might be time to admit the Broncos may not be matchup-proof anymore. They are probably the best option on Tier 3, but that is as much credit as I will give them this week.
Pittsburgh is probably the next most desirable choice on the tier. Their game is at home, and while overall they have been relatively mediocre on the season, they have shown themselves to have a high D/ST upside at times. They have interceptions in each of their last five games, including sack totals of 5 and 8 (and 19 total in those games). Especially if the Steelers get up to an early lead and can sit back on their pass rush all game long, this could be a cheap ticket for a score of 10+ in Week 16.
Both the Jaguars’ opponent and the Rams’ opponent show up on this tier, but they are the Titans and 49ers, respectively. Not to mention the 49ers’ opponent is here too, but they obviously get the Rams. Yuck. Trust any of them if you dare, especially the Titans, but if I am dipping into these ranks for my championship game, I would not feel particularly good about the position this weekend.
The Texans in particular might at first look a little out of place here, because even with a home game, their opponent has not been all that bad and the Texans have not been all that good defensively. Still, they are small Vegas favorites in a low-scoring home game, so they realistically have to show up in the top half of the rankings somewhere. Jadeveon Clowney has been playing out of his mind and this could be a very nice boom/bust option if you have been shut out of the top options above.
That just leaves Miami on the tier. This is mostly the “bust” complement to the Buffalo projection’s “boom” component above. If the Bills D/ST does poorly, we can expect a decent percentage of those outcomes to include the Dolphins D/ST doing very well. With Miami playing on the road and, even coming off a great road game against the Jets, I would only take on the Dolphins if I needed a long-shot boom/bust play.
Tier 4 and below
Everything else has Vegas totals of 24 or higher, with the exception of Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Neither are a very good choice, but Cincinnati would represent the choice if forced. It is possible that Texans have finally found a decent NFL QB. I just would not bet on it.
Best of luck to everybody in their championship games. We will be back briefly in Week 17 to look at the projection model one last time, and to go over some results.
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