Jerick McKinnon could be in line for a nice week with AP out
Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes which players he believes are overvalued or undervalued in Week 17.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Aaron head to FantasyTruth.
In this column, I reveal the players that I believe are being overvalued or undervalued on a weekly basis. This is based on where I stand on a player in comparison to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, or ECR for short. For Week 17 I’ll be giving you one overvalued and one undervalued player at each position along with the reasons that my opinion differs from the other experts.
Before getting into my Week 17 picks, let’s take a moment and see how I did against the experts in Week 16. These results are based on FantasyPros Fantasy Football Leaders.
Overvalued
- Russell Wilson (QB – SEA) ECR: 12th – Finished: 2nd – Winner: ECR
- Jay Ajayi (RB – MIA) ECR: 13th – Finished: 2nd – Winner: ECR
- Michael Crabtree (WR – OAK) ECR: 8th – Finished: 36th – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Martellus Bennett (TE – NE) ECR: 9th – Finished: 12th – Winner: FantasyTruth
Undervalued
- Blake Bortles (QB – JAC) ECR: 20th – Finished: 7th – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Doug Martin (RB – TB) ECR: 22nd – Finished: N/A – Winner: N/A
- Pierre Garcon (WR – WAS) ECR: 43rd – Finished: 32nd – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Charles Clay (TE – BUF) ECR: 18th – Finished: 2nd – Winner: FantasyTruth
I was way off on Russell Wilson and Jay Ajayi this week but came out ahead on all of the other matchups (excluding Doug Martin, who was a healthy scratch well before game time but after the publication of this article). Things get a bit more unpredictable in week 17 which should make for some interesting results.
Overvalued
Drew Brees (QB – NO) ECR: 3rd
Why the experts like him
In a week full of bad matchups and questionable motivation, Brees is one of the most attractive quarterback plays available. The Atlanta Falcons have a porous secondary and despite this being a road matchup, Brees could benefit from playing in a dome.
Why I think he’s overvalued
Drew Brees‘ struggles on the road have been well documented. He is also facing a team that is fighting for playoff seeding so don’t expect the Falcons to take it easy on them. Brees will still be a startable quarterback but I don’t think he’s a top-five option this week.
Jerick McKinnon (RB – MIN) ECR: 23rd
Why the experts like him
McKinnon should get the majority of touches for Minnesota this week. These will come against a Chicago Bears defense that just allowed 178 yards and two touchdowns on the ground against Washington. If the Bears have packed it in for the season, he could have a big game.
Why I think he’s overvalued
Outside of last week, the Bears defense has been decent against the run. Minnesota’s offensive line just isn’t very good and usually fails to create running lanes for their backs. I don’t believe that McKinnon will be able to generate RB2 numbers with the players he has around him.
Tyrell Williams (WR – SD) ECR: 13th
Why the experts like him
With all of the injuries to the Chargers receivers, Williams has been the clear-cut top option. He has the speed and size to be a threat anywhere on the field, including in the red zone. With Melvin Gordon either out or limited, this could be a pass heavy game script for the Chargers.
Why I think he’s overvalued
Since tearing his Labrum in week 12, Williams is averaging only three receptions per game. This makes him extremely touchdown dependent to have any chance of reaching his current ranking. I expect that Antonio Gates will get plenty of redzone looks this week which would further limit Williams’ upside.
Greg Olsen (TE – CAR) ECR: 2nd
Why the experts like him
With his third 1,000 yard season in the books, Olsen is the most reliable tight end in the NFL. He blew up against Tampa Bay in week 5 with 181 yards and will look to do so again this week.
Why I think he’s overvalued
In order to rank as the second best tight end, at least one touchdown is almost a necessity. Olsen has only found the end zone three times this year and the last time was eight weeks ago. He has also failed to eclipse 100 receiving yards in 10 weeks. I feel safe saying that Olsen won’t come anywhere near his current ECR.
Undervalued
Landry Jones (QB – PIT) ECR: 22nd
Why the experts dislike him
The Steelers can’t improve their seeding with a win this week so they are resting many of their starters. This means that Jones will be without his normal top receiving options in his fill-in role for Ben Roethlisberger. In past starts, Jones has not impressed so there is little optimism that this time will be any different.
Why I think he’s undervalued
Even without starting caliber receivers, Jones should be able to find openings in the awful Cleveland Browns defense. The Browns finally have a win on the books and have absolutely nothing to play for as a win would actually hurt them in the draft next year. This could be Landry Jones last opportunity to showcase his talents as he may be done in Pittsburgh after this season.
Fitzgerald Toussaint (RB – PIT) ECR: 45th
Why the experts dislike him
Toussaint is viewed as the backup to DeAngelo Williams, who made his return from injury in week 16. He has seen very little work all season and even in a great matchup the potential workload is a concern. There’s no doubt that Toussaint is a risky play this week.d
Why I think he’s undervalued
I do expect that DeAngelo Williams will receive some work this week, but it seems more likely that the Steelers will want him rested for the playoffs. This could lead to a heavy workload from Toussaint as the Steelers won’t want to overexpose Landry Jones. If you’re in desperate need of a running back I believe that he will vastly outperform his ECR.
Pierre Garcon (WR – WAS) ECR: 40th
Why the experts dislike him
The Giants have been solid against opposing wide receivers all season long and Garcon isn’t exactly the most exciting option available. This is a divisional matchup which could lead to a tough outing for Garcon if the Giants have the Redskins number.
Why I think he’s undervalued
Garcon has found a great chemistry with Kirk Cousins this year and has been one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL. The opposing New York Giants are locked into their playoff seed which means they could be resting starters in an effort to stay healthy for the playoffs. On the flip side, the Redskins are still in the hunt for a playoff spot and will be giving it all they have in this matchup.
Jack Doyle (TE – IND) ECR: 19th
Why the experts dislike him
The Colts haven’t been able to generate much tight end production this season which limits Doyle’s upside in this matchup. Doyle has exceeded 50 yards only once in the last six weeks and isn’t on the fantasy radar for week 17.
Why I think he’s undervalued
Despite a pedestrian performance last week, Doyle did receive the second most targets on the Colts behind T.Y. Hilton. Donte Moncrief isn’t practicing this week which means that Doyle should see another healthy target share in week 17. I’m expecting this to be a high-scoring game which will give Doyle plenty of opportunity to put up points.
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