Fantasy Football QB1 Primer: Week 13

Tyrod Taylor’s ceiling increases with a healthy Sammy Watkins

There are two types of people who play fantasy football. Those who believe that their matchups will be determined by the outfit they wear or the chair on which they choose to sit during the games. And other, misguided souls, who think that their actions have no impact on their fantasy football matchups.

We spend an awful lot of time pondering our lineup decisions, poring over rankings and trying to make the best decisions. But it’s all for naught. Our destiny is determined by the fantasy gods, whose benevolence can be glorious, but whose wrath can be fierce and mighty.

I’ve felt the fantasy gods’ anger this season in my most important league, about which I’ve written several times. I share it with my close friend, Fitz. Two years ago, Fitz and I won the league on a long touchdown run by Marshawn Lynch on Sunday Night Football in Week 16 against Arizona. Lynch ended his run by jumping backward into the end zone and making an . . . obscene gesture. Fitz and I didn’t care. It was one of the great moments of our fantasy football careers, and we still talk about it daily.

But the fantasy gods are angry at us now. Whether it’s because of the ridiculous rabbit we pulled out of our hat to win the league that year, or simply our lack of outrage over Lynch’s gesture, the fantasy gods’ retribution has been vicious.

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Fitz and I had an outstanding auction in the league this year, and easily won all four of our matchups in the first two weeks (we play two opponents each week). Then, we got hit with a ton of injuries. Although we were able to continue to plug the holes and put up huge scores each week, we began losing matchups on ridiculous developments, such as when Marvin Jones randomly went for 205 yards and two TDs in Week 3, Martellus Bennett scored three TDs in Week 5, and Jordan Howard, who was barely supposed to play, went for 200 yards and two TDs against the Vikings in Week 8.

The playoffs begin in Week 12 in this league, and Fitz and I were barely hanging onto to a playoff spot entering last week. We needed to win at least one of our matchups and, thankfully, drew the two worst teams in the league. We felt cautiously optimistic about our chances, until, among other things, Jordan Reed returned to his Thanksgiving game after having his arm in a sling in the second quarter to score two touchdowns and put us in a big hole.

About the time Reed scored his second touchdown, I finally accepted our fate. No amount of roster management or analysis could save us. We had angered the fantasy gods, and there was nothing we could do.

That whole Sunday, I decided to forego my usual football ritual of sitting in front of the TV for six hours and following my matchups, and instead acted as the perfect husband and father. I went grocery shopping for my wife right in the middle of the one o’clock games. I indulged every one of my children’s whims, giving my wife the afternoon off while I played trucks and magic pet store (Note: this is a game where you pretend to be a pet store owner and magically transform your children into different animals. It is a winner, parents. Give it a try.). I gave my kids an extra book at bedtime.

In other words, I was the man I had always wanted to be. Or, rather, the man my wife had always wanted me to be. Either way, I did well.

Yes, I followed the box scores of the games on my phone, and yes, I had the Red Zone channel on in the background. But Fitz and I did not text about our matchup, and I did not open up the host website’s app to check our scores.

Of course, Fitz and I wound up putting up our highest point total since Week 2 (thanks Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy!) and, although we still lost to the Jordan Reed-led team (who, of course, put up the highest point total that week despite being in last place), we managed to win our other matchup and sneak into the playoffs as the sixth seed.

I say this with all sincerity. I believe our success happened because I sacrificed myself to the fantasy football gods. I don’t think it’s because we went with our gut and started Marqise Lee or because Willie Snead randomly threw a touchdown pass. It was the grocery shopping and magic pet store that did it.

This is a big week for most of us. Many of us have playoff spots on the line. So, take my advice. Go do the grocery shopping. Play Simba Baseball with your kids (another game I invented – we’ll talk about it next week). Read the kids’ favorite book at bedtime. Appease the fantasy gods.

And with that good karma engendered, let’s dive into another week of QB analysis. As always, let’s start with how the QBs finished up last week:

And here were my picks:

Blech, seven out of 12. Serves me right for winding up with the exact same top 12 as the ECR. But, to be fair, when you see the likes of Matt Barkley and Trevor Siemian on the leaderboard, you know it was a weird week. So, let’s do better in Week 13:

The Obvious Names

Drew Brees (NO)
In the league I discussed above, I was so hopeful that we would make the playoffs because I saw this matchup on the horizon. Brees is an absolute monster (leading the NFL in touchdowns, completion percentage and yardage), is on a whole different level at home, and now gets a fantastic matchup with a Lions defense that gives up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Plus, there’s about a 95% chance that Brees forces at least two touchdown passes to Brandin Cooks to make up for the goose egg in Week 12. Brees is certainly the top option for the week.

Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Assuming that the hamstring injury is minor, here’s the next best choice. You don’t need me to tell you that Aaron Rodgers is good at football, so the only thing that even remotely gives you pause is the matchup with the Texans, who allow only 209 passing yards per game and give up the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Even if the matchup could scare you off Rodgers (which of course, neither it nor any matchup should), that vaulted defense is starting to crack, having allowed six touchdown passes in the last two games. Monitor the hamstring injury, but Rodgers should play, and you’re starting him.

Andrew Luck (IND)
All signs point to Luck being recovered from the concussion that forced him to miss the Colts’ Thanksgiving matchup against the Steelers. He now gets a good matchup against the Jets at home on Monday Night Football, in a game the Colts really need to win. I say good, not great, matchup, because the Jets defense is improving, they’ll get pressure on Luck because of the Colts’ porous offensive line, and they’ve actually given up only the 18th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Still, with the Jets being able to stop the run, T.Y. Hilton looking likely to play, and Revis Island looking more like Revis . . . (Googling the opposite of an island) Mainland (ugh, that doesn’t really work but whatever, blame Google), Luck should still be able to put up some points here.

Tom Brady (NE)
I am nervous about Brady’s injury. I am nervous that Rob Gronkowski will miss this game, which will make Brady less effective. I am not nervous about either of those things enough to make me sit Brady against a Rams defense that just allowed five passing touchdowns. I’m not overly confident here, and this is the one week, assuming Gronkowski sits, that I’d be willing to start several guys over Brady. But, let’s not kid ourselves, he’s still a QB1.

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
Color me intrigued on this one. On the one hand, you have Roethlisberger, who is unstoppable at home (15 TDs and two interceptions in just four home games). On the other hand, you have the Giants, who allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have held their last five opposing quarterbacks to one or fewer touchdown passes. Hmmmm. Well, put me solidly in the camp of Roethlisberger is matchup proof at home, especially when the Steelers are on extra rest and healthy. The Giants certainly do well against opposing QBs for fantasy purposes, but I don’t fear them like I might, say, the Broncos. If I own Roethlisberger, I am starting him here without hesitation.

The Studs Who Disappointed You Last Week Names

Matt Ryan (ATL)
To put Ryan in this category is a little unfair, since he played splendidly against a tough Cardinals defense in Week 12, but just lost several touchdowns to rushing scores. Ryan has been fantastic all season, and now gets a good KC defense, but one that just allowed Trevor Siemian to drop 368 yards passing and has given up the ninth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. And played a Sunday night game. That went to overtime. Lots of reasons to like Ryan here, as usual.

Russell Wilson (SEA)
Ugh, to the guy on Twitter who I told to start Wilson over Kirk Cousins last week, I’m sorry. It was based on a faulty assumption that the Seattle offensive line would give Wilson more than one second to throw the ball. Sigh, after starting his second half roll like usual, Wilson put up one of the most random and unexpected stinkers for any quarterback all season. The only remotely saving grace was his 80 yards rushing, but considering that Wilson was running for his life, I wouldn’t get too excited about it. Still, this is a good matchup against a Carolina defense that has given up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Expect the Seahawks to gameplan around their horrendous offensive line to make sure Wilson is able to produce. The game against the Bucs was just plain crazy. I’m still starting Wilson with confidence.

The Usually Reliable Names

Philip Rivers (SD)
Multiple passing touchdowns in four straight weeks despite matchups at Denver and Houston? You’ve earned yourself some QB1 status, Mr. Rivers. With the running game not working quite as well in recent weeks, Rivers has stepped up his game and now has a decent complement of receiving options at his disposal. The Bucs looked like world-beaters against the Seahawks, but that was probably more of a product of the Seahawks issues on the offensive line. The Bucs have given up the 13th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and Rivers should continue his recent run of throwing multiple passing touchdowns, especially since this is a home game, where Rivers almost always does well.

Eli Manning (NYG)
Manning has been steady since the Giants’ bye, with 12 passing touchdowns over his last four games. He gets a tough matchup here, on the road against a solid Steelers pass defense that allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. As mentioned above, I expect the Steelers to put up some points in this game, and I think Eli and the Giants will need to go big to hang with them. It’s dangerous, but Manning is a QB1 for me this week.

The I Love Your Matchups Names

Matthew Stafford (DET)
Kinda struggling fantasy quarterback with a bad defense? Meet the Saints! Stafford has thrown for more than one touchdown just once in his last five games, but come on now. The Saints have allowed multiple touchdown passes to seven of the 11 quarterbacks they faced (including three to Jared Goff last week), and the Lions are probably going to need at least four touchdowns to win this game. Unless Theo Riddick is ready for an all-time game, Stafford should get his here.

Colin Kaepernick (SF)
I mean, wow. For those of us lucky enough to own Andrew Luck and be forced to use Kaepernick as a replacement last week (slowly raises hand), we were treated to the top fantasy game from any QB. Kaepernick has quietly been getting it done for weeks, both through the air and on the ground, and that should continue this week. Although the Bears aren’t terrible against the pass, they give up the 10th most rushing yards to opposing QBs. You know who is an opposing QB who runs a lot? Kaepernick. #analysis. Start Kaep until further notice.

Tyrod Taylor (BUF)
Taylor doesn’t put up a ton of passing yards or passing touchdowns. But he is steady, runs a heck of a lot, and has a tasty matchup against the Raiders, who allow 25 points per game and have given up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Monitor injuries to Taylor and Sammy Watkins, but if both play, I’m good to trust Taylor here.

Glaring Omissions

Derek Carr (OAK) and Kirk Cousins (WAS)
For Carr, it’s largely about the grotesque finger injury. Plus, Buffalo is solid against quarterbacks, and I could see a lot of Latavius Murray in this game, especially close to the end zone. For Cousins, it’s entirely the matchup, though I’d feel much better about him if Patrick Peterson misses the game. Still, a cross-country game against a desperate and angry Arizona defense makes me nervous.

Week 12: 7-5

Overall Record: 82-62 (57%)

Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.

NFL Marshawn Lynch Marvin Jones Martellus Bennett Jordan Howard Jordan Reed Drew Brees LeSean McCoy Marqise Lee Willie Snead Colin Kaepernick Kirk Cousins Trevor Siemian Ryan Tannehill Aaron Rodgers Dak Prescott Marcus Mariota Blake Bortles Ben Roethlisberger Matt Barkley Tyrod Taylor Cam Newton Tom Brady Russell Wilson Matt Ryan Eli Manning Derek Carr Brandin Cooks Andrew Luck T.Y. Hilton Rob Gronkowski Philip Rivers Matthew Stafford Jared Goff Theo Riddick Sammy Watkins Latavius Murray