Can fantasy owners trust Russell Wilson in pivotal Week 16 matchups?
My daughter drew the short end of the stick when it came to her birthday. It’s in late December. So every year, it’s the same general conversation:
“No sweetie, we can’t have your party outside like most of your friends’ parties this summer. It’s called hypothermia.” “I’m sorry, honey, most people are out of town around this time.” “I know your brother gets presents around your birthday, but they’re not BIRTHDAY presents like yours!”
And every year, my wife and I play it safe. We have the party at the local kids gym even though it’s boring because we know there won’t be any surprises. Or we keep it super small just to make sure that tons of preschoolers don’t break all our precious mementos in the house.
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But not this year. It was time to take a chance, and give this poor December baby something she’d remember. The kid is obsessed with animals, so I convinced my wife to throw the party at our house, invite every kid my daughter knows, and have a wildlife service come over with live animals and do a presentation. Not bad, right?
Sure, it was risky. After all, we couldn’t even choose the animals. We could choose the “package,” which mainly limited the size of the animals. We went with the one that was bigger than bugs but smaller than horses. I figured maybe bunnies would be nice? A hamster, perhaps?
Turns out I was a bit off. As my wife and I got ready to snap pictures of my daughter, 20 six-year-olds, and several happy parents, the presenter brought out a wallaby. Seriously, a wallaby. In my home. Hopping around like mad.
After ducking out to check my homeowner’s insurance policy and make sure it covers wallabies (note – it did not), I got a gentle tap on my shoulder from my lovely wife: “There is a baby kangaroo in our living room and your daughter wants to play with it, but only if you’ll hold it. This was your idea, big guy. Get in there.”
If you read this column regularly, you know that I’m usually willing to do anything for my kids. But holding a kangaroo was not in the manual. And if we’re STARTING with a wallaby, what in the world is coming next?
After weighing the pros and cons, being urged on by my fellow dads, and grabbing a bit of liquid courage, I went to hold the wallaby. And then I let the giant toad sit on my head. And let the arctic fox eat out of my hand. And yes, I held that darn python and pretended like I was not on the verge of passing out.
When all was said and done, the party was a hit, my daughter was elated, and I only kinda fainted once. We had taken a huge risk, both with having the wildlife party and with me holding a giant snake. A snake, people!
It’s Week 16, you guys. Whether we’re in our championship game, our consolation finals, or just playing out the season, there’s no reason to hold anything back now. Don’t be scared to start Bilal Powell over Thomas Rawls. Fear not starting Tyrell Williams over Emmanuel Sanders.
Let the arctic fox eat out of your hand. Hold that python up above your head. Hug that wallaby. Bring home a championship.
And with that, let’s get into our Week 16 QB1 analysis. As always, let’s start with how the QBs finished last week.
1. Drew Brees
2. Matt Moore
3. Carson Palmer
4. Russell Wilson
5. Cam Newton
6. Matt Ryan
7. Dak Prescott
8. Andrew Luck
9. Robert Griffin III
10. Colin Kaepernick
11. Eli Manning
12. Tyrod Taylor
And here were my picks:
1. Matt Ryan
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Tom Brady
4. Drew Brees
5. Andrew Luck
6. Kirk Cousins
7. Russell Wilson
8. Derek Carr
9. Carson Palmer
10. Philip Rivers
11. Tyrod Taylor
12. Joe Flacco
Glaring Omissions: Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger
If you take away RG3 and Matt Moore from that list, it seems like it was a pretty solid week for quarterbacks. Sure, there’s no Brady or Rodgers, but both had terrible matchups and/or injury concerns. So, let’s hope that keeps going this week, so fantasy owners can have a little consistency in their championship matchups.
So, let’s get started. Here are your QB1s for Week 16:
The Obvious Names
Drew Brees (NO)
If ever you needed evidence that this year has been a little nutty, it was Brees’ last three weeks. At home in a soft matchup against the Lions and on the road against a good but not elite defense in Tampa Bay in Weeks 13 and 14, Brees was a total disaster, with zero touchdowns and six combined interceptions. He then torched the very tough Cardinals defense on the road for four touchdowns and nearly 400 yards. Brees was obviously excellent in Arizona, but a large part of his success was simply the Saints’ commitment to and establishment of the run game. Expect the Saints to strike a similar balance again in Week 16 against the Bucs as they look for revenge for their recent loss. With Michael Thomas back and passing lanes sure to be open, expect a big performance from Brees at home.
Tom Brady (NE)
Christmas Eve with my wife’s family in New England means I get to watch Tom Brady and the Patriots torch my beloved Jets, and take endless ribbing on top of it. The Jets are abysmal against opposing quarterbacks, allowing the fourth most points to them, and Brady threw for 286 yards and two touchdowns in the teams’ first meeting. Expect Brady’s typical non-Denver production.
Andrew Luck (IND)
Luck came up huge in a tough matchup against the Vikings in Week 15, and did so with T.Y. Hilton as his lone reliable receiving option. With Donte Moncrief looking likely to suit up, the Colts’ receiving group will be pretty much at full strength for Week 16 against Oakland. Although the Raiders have given up just the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, they rank 26th in passing defense. With the Colts’ playoff hopes still faintly alive and them likely to need points, expect Luck to do well here.
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Rodgers was not a top 12 QB in Week 15, but blame Davante Adams and his two drops of easy touchdown passes. More importantly, Rodgers had no setbacks with his calf injury, and looks to be practicing in full. The Vikings obviously have a solid pass defense, but Andrew Luck just showed how beatable they are at this stage, especially with their banged up secondary. Rodgers is obviously a must-start this week.
The Still Feeling Good About You Names
Matt Ryan (ATL)
Ryan legitimately looked like he could have thrown six touchdown passes last week against the 49ers even without Julio Jones if he wanted to. He now likely gets Jones back and, although it’s a road game against an improving Panthers defense, there’s just no way you could consider sitting him here. Ryan torched these Panthers for 503 yards and four touchdowns in Week 4, and while they have gotten better since then, they’re also on a short week and still probably without Luke Kuechly. With his full complement of weapons, Ryan can best any defense, and he makes a solid play in this one.
Cam Newton (CAR)
After looking like his shoulder injury wouldn’t allow him to make it out of the first quarter, Newton put up a vintage performance, throwing for 300 yards and two touchdowns on Monday against the Redskins. He now gets the perfect matchup against the Falcons, who score a lot of points and can’t stop opposing quarterbacks. Atlanta has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the second-most passing yards. With Carolina somehow not eliminated from the playoff race yet, expect Newton to gut his way through this one, and put up another solid stat line.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
When Big Ben is on the road, he’s a borderline QB1 most weeks. But at home, like he is this week, he’s always a must-start option. It’s really that simple. Roethlisberger has averaged 327 passing yards and more than three touchdowns per game in his last five home games. The Steelers-Ravens matchup is a brutal, knockout affair, and they always play each other tough. But the Ravens defense, while excellent, is beatable on the road. Both Tom Brady and Dak Prescott threw three passing touchdowns against the Ravens in the team’s two most recent games away from M&T Bank Stadium. That’s a lofty goal for Roethlisberger, but given his track record at home, fantasy owners should expect success on Christmas.
The Getting A Little Uncomfortable With You Names
Philip Rivers (SD)
The Cleveland Browns. I’m wondering if any NFL QB would not make this last facing the Browns, as they allow the most fantasy points to opposing QBs and allow an average of a 104.0 QB rating against. Thankfully, we don’t have to test that theory, as Rivers is a borderline QB1 in most weeks, so certainly makes the cut with the Browns bump (can I patent that term?). Rivers has thrown multiple passing touchdowns in seven straight games. Unfortunately, he’s averaged two interceptions per game over that span. Expect the passing touchdowns to stay afloat, but look for Rivers to avoid the interceptions (the Browns have just eight picks all year) in what is just the best matchup you could ask for.
Derek Carr (OAK)
There’s a lot to be worried about with Carr, between Amari Cooper‘s disappearance and his dislocated finger preventing him from taking a snap from under center. But he gets a great matchup here against the Colts, who allow 261 yards per game and have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. The Raiders have to continue to win to try to get a first-round bye, and Jack Del Rio has been frustrated with the lack of explosiveness in the offense. Expect Oakland to open up the playbook and get creative, which should lead to more opportunities for Carr.
Jameis Winston (TB)
Except for a brief two-drive stretch in the third quarter, Winston looked pretty awful against the Cowboys on Sunday night, and he now gets a rematch versus the Saints, against whom he failed to score a touchdown just two weeks ago. But the Saints should put up more points in this one, forcing the Bucs to finally let Winston do his thing. This is a must-win for the Bucs to keep their playoff hopes alive, and as Dan Fouts would say, “Last game of the year, Brent. Can’t hold anything back now.” Expect Winston and the Bucs to pull out all the stops, which should lead to solid production from the young QB. (And yes, I know it’s not technically the last game of the year. But you just don’t pass up the chance to use a Waterboy reference. Fantasy writing 101.)
The Totally Not Confident In You Names
Kirk Cousins (WAS)
Man, that was a playoff-killing performance on Monday night from Cousins, huh? Despite last week’s dud, Cousins has been consistent and solid for the majority of the year, and I’m not ready to lose complete faith in him just yet. Yes, the Bears are decent against the pass and yes, the weather in Chicago can always be a factor. But, like the Bucs, the Redskins have to win to keep their fading playoff hopes alive. Expect some deep shots to DeSean Jackson and for the Redskins to get creative to try to keep their offense on the field for longer than three plays per drive this time. Cousins is a low-end QB1 for me.
Russell Wilson (SEA)
I’m equal parts terrified (because of Wilson’s inconsistency, his offensive line, and the tough matchup), and excited (because I can’t get his fantasy-championship-winning performance against these same Cardinals in Week 16 of 2014 out of my head) for this matchup. But the bottom line is that I own Wilson in one league and I’m not sitting him for a waiver wire guy in my championship match, and that means I view him as a QB1. Arizona is obviously beatable via the pass, as they showed last week against New Orleans, and at some point, that whole team is going to be checked out. The Cardinals are banged up in the secondary and have really struggled on the road this year. I’m not expecting an explosive performance, but I think Wilson does enough to get into the top 12 QBs.
Glaring Omissions
None. Sorry guys. For just the second time this season, my QB1s match the ECR, at least in terms of the names listed. I’m sorry, America. I can’t change facts!
Good luck in your championship matches, people, and enjoy the holidays. And remember, when in doubt, hug the wallaby.
Week 15: 6-6
Overall Record: 100-80 (55%)
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Dan Harris is a correspondent with FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.
