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Week 14 Start/Sit (Fantasy Football)

Dec 9, 2016

Will Fuller has fallen deep down the rankings, but this could be the week he bounces back

Will Fuller has fallen deep down the rankings, but this could be the week he bounces back

So the first round started off with a bang for all the Tyreek Hill owners out there (hopefully you started him based on our advice), but if not, there is still an entire weekend of games to make your way into the second round.

Recently, we had Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! Sports on our podcast and he talked about what needs to be done during the playoffs to win. One of the things mentioned was how to take down a better opponent when you’re simply outmatched. How do you do that exactly? Well in some cases, you’re going to need to make the play that is going to give you the higher ceiling. Now this isn’t to say you should be sitting your studs, but the bottom line is, you should have no allegiance to any of your players at this time of the year. You play the best matchups you possibly can for your team against your opponent right now.

Our featured experts below were asked what players deep down in the rankings have sleeper potential this week, and on the flip side, what studs could disappoint. Again, you don’t have to sit your studs, but just be aware of what our featured experts have to say. Then you can make any decision you please with your lineup.

If you need further start/sit advice or don’t see any of your players listed below, head over to My Playbook and get advice tailored to your team and league.

Featured Experts:
Ken ZalisPressbox
R.C. FischerFantasy Football Metrics
Adam SuttonDraftStars
Donald GibsonFantasy Fusion
Anthony StaggsPyromaniac
Andy HollowayThe Fantasy Footballers
Doug MooreInside the Pylon

Q1. Give us a player outside of our top 110 Flex that represents a deep sleeper start.

Will Fuller (WR – HOU): at IND
“Fuller appears to be past his injury, and this could very well be the week he returns to form in terms of production. It’s no secret the Texans are a mess, but they have a decent matchup this week against the Colts, and it’s one Fuller could exploit. He was on quite a run for the first four weeks of the season, and I like him to produce this week like he did at the start of this season.”
Adam Sutton (DraftStars)

Adam Thielen (WR – MIN): at JAC
“Believe it or not, Thielen has actually outperformed Stefon Diggs in terms of yardage in each or the last two weeks (139 vs. 96). Diggs should be matched up with Jalen Ramsey, which will turn Thielen into Sam Bradford’s favorite target (again). Thielen has averaged ten targets over his last two games, and I see that as his floor vs. Jacksonville.”
Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion)

Jacquizz Rodgers (RB – TB): vs. NO
“Well I am not much for coach speak, but Jacquizz Rodgers was really good for the 3 weeks he filled in for Doug Martin before he got hurt. He was back last week and had 8 touches. This week he gets a Saints defense that for the season, has given up the 3rd most fantasy points per week to opposing RBs.”
Ken Zalis (Pressbox)

Christine Michael (RB – GB): vs. SEA
“Michael led the Packers in carries (9) in Week 13, in his second game on the active roster. He brought a little spark to the run game when he entered and was trusted to take the final three carries with less than two minutes left and the Packers trying to run out the clock on Houston. Michael is not the most talented running back, but he is fast and does hit the holes full speed. If the line opens up space, he’ll get yards, and Green Bay has a nice O-Line. The big factor here is the obvious – Michael plays against the team that just released him a few weeks prior. He’s sure to get extra chances to work against his old team. If he gets hot, the Packers will stick with him. He might be a surprise RB this week who gets 12-15+ touches… with a ‘mission’.”
R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)

Michael Floyd (WR – ARI): at MIA
“Floyd looks like he is surging up the depth chart in Arizona at the end of the season again. Last week he played 70 of 74 snaps and was involved as this offense has started to slowly morph over the last few weeks to play to Palmers decreasing arm strength and deep ball accuracy. Floyd has been targeted at least five times in every game since getting back in the fold in Week 10. With John Brown struggling with hamstring issues and J.J. Nelson a one trick pony, Floyd could be heavily involved in the passing game. Floyd possesses weekly boom-bust ability, but should be able to get loose against a Miami secondary that was just torched by the Ravens.”
Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac)

Josh Bellamy (WR – CHI): at DET
“I don’t have any desire to pick a Chicago WR that I like in Week 14, but if I had to pick one it would be Josh Bellamy. He was terrible in the difficult weather last week but Barkley found him often, and if he can capitalize on a few opportunities he’ll certainly outperform his current consensus flex ranking.”
Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers)

Jermaine Gresham (TE – ARI): at MIA
“I’m going to actually go with Jermaine Gresham. Over the past three weeks, Gresham is the number eight ranked tight end in standard leagues and number seven in PPR leagues. He has 12 receptions for 120 yards and two touchdowns over the past three weeks. Gresham faces the Dolphins, who have given up 24 receptions, 250 yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends over the past three games. They just lost their best linebacker in Kiko Alonso and subsequently gave up nine receptions, 90 yards, and two touchdowns to Dennis Pitta last week. Gresham is seeing an uptick in usage over the past few games and comes into a very favorable matchup this weekend.”
Doug Moore (Inside the Pylon)

Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 35 Flex is likely to disappoint?

Matt Forte (RB – NYJ): at SF
“This is a juicy matchup on paper, as the 49ers have been deplorable against opposing running backs. That being said, the Jets are a mess offensively, and now they will be starting Bryce Petty at quarterback. This is a cross-country trip for Forte and the Jets, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the San Francisco rush defense show up for once this season.”
Adam Sutton (DraftStars)

“The 49ers are the worst in the league against running backs, which speaks to Matt Forte’s ranking as a clear RB1, I get it. However, Forte has averaged a meager 11 carries and three receptions over his last two games with a per carry average of 2.4 – a number that would disappoint even Trent Richardson. Further, Bilal Powell (28 snaps) actually out-snapped Forte (24) in that rough Week 13 showing against the Colts. The Jets have a premier matchup and should try to run with Bryce Petty behind center, but I’d temper expectations for a waning Matt Forte.”
Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion)

Jordan Howard (RB – CHI): at DET
“The Detroit Lions have only given up 3 Rushing TDs all year and are the 11th stingiest overall versus opposing RBss. Jordan Howard is someone I do not love this week. Detroit plays especially well at home. I have limited my expectations for Howard this week.”
Ken Zalis (Pressbox)

T.Y. Hilton (WR – IND): vs. HOU
“I’m a huge Hilton fan, but I’m equally a fan of the way A.J. Bouye is playing corner for Houston – a real shutdown corner. Hilton is just the type of WR that Bouye can lock down. Hilton’s smaller and thinner-framed, and he cannot out-physical or outreach Bouye. In their last meeting, Hilton had 3 catches on 9 targets for 49 yards and no touchdowns. I don’t know how you bench T.Y. Hilton, but if you did have reasonable other options, this would be the week to consider it.”
R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)

Jay Ajayi (RB – MIA): vs. ARI
“I can’t say that I’m excited by Ajayi in Week 14. Arizona is fighting for their playoff lives and their defensive front has been generally unfriendly to opposing running backs. Ajayi will have the volume, but unless he can break off a few big runs, we may see a performance reminiscent of the one we got from Spencer Ware this week on TNF. Lots of volume, low production.”
Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers)

Doug Martin (RB – TB): vs. NO
“I’m going to go with Doug Martin. He has been a big disappointment for most of the season, including rushing for 132 yards on 40 attempts (3.3 yards per carry) over the past two games. Couple that with the fact that Charles Sims is reportedly returning from injury and Martin may not receive as much work. The Saints have also been much improved against the run recently, only allowing 152 rushing yards and a touchdown to opposing running backs over the past three weeks on 57 attempts (2.67 rushing yards per carry).”
Doug Moore (Inside the Pylon)

Julian Edelman (WR – NE): vs. BAL
“Edelman being ranked so high always scares me, mostly because he can’t top 15 targets in a given week and is no way guaranteed a red zone look or 100 yards. While I think he is a great play, having him as a back-end WR1 is too rich for my blood. Baltimore is awesome against the run, which should lead to additional pass attempts and targets to go Edelman’s way. In the last two seasons, though, there have been ten games where Edelman has received double-digit targets, and in those games, he has notched just one one-hundred yard game in that 10-game span. You can ignore everything I said here if you play in a PPR league, but in standard, his ranking is too rich for my blood.”
Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac)

Thank you to the experts for taking the time to give their picks. For more advice, be sure to check out our latest podcast below and subscribe for all the latest updates and tips.

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