Russell Wilson will try to lead his team back to another championship and it starts against the Lions
In what should be a fun matchup to watch, the night cap on Saturday (8:15pm ET) features two teams that are far from the dominant squads that showed up during stretches this season. The “Legion of Boom” misses their All-Pro safety, Earl Thomas, while Matthew Stafford’s finger has become a storyline. There’s reason to believe that Seattle, though, is better situated to move on. After all, they’re 8 point favorites, they’ve been here before, winning two of the last three championships, their quarterback is relatively healthy, and they play at home where the crowd cranks it up with the best of them.
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The Lions, on the other hand, have lost their last eight Wild Card appearances and haven’t won a road playoff game since 1957. As mentioned, their quarterback is not fully healthy and when you look at his road splits, he has a career passer rating of 83.6 when playing away from home. In the three games he has played against the Seahawks, he’s thrown five touchdowns compared to six interceptions. He does have a win under his belt, though, so it’s far from impossible.
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Raiders at Texans (-3.5) | Dolphins at Steelers (-10) | Giants at Packers (-4.5)
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“I like the Seahawks outright, but eight points is a lot to give for a team with a terrible offensive line.”
– Michael Beller (Sports Illustrated) “The Lions have lost three straight, all to NFC teams that are in the playoffs. While Seattle is a tough place to play, I’m taking the Lions with the points. The Seahawks rarely blow anyone out.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts) “I think the Seahawks win, but fail to cover this spread. I’m calling for a close one because of these defenses. It is true that Detroit could not contain Rodgers in Week 17, but collapsing the pocket around Russell Wilson should prove an easier task.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “Too many points here. Russell Wilson should have a big day, but I think the Lions can hang with them.”
– Sean Beazley (EDSFootball) “Seattle should win this one, but not by eight. Only two of Detroit’s seven losses were by eight or more points, and the Seattle defense isn’t exactly what it once was. This will be a close one.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion) “With the way the Seahawks have played recently, there’s no way that they should be more than a touchdown favorite. While I expect them to win this game, it will be fewer than eight points.”
– Mike Tagliere (Pro Football Focus) “Seattle hasn’t looked dominant all season, and their secondary hasn’t looked the same since Earl Thomas went down, while Matthew Stafford looks to be getting back on track after his finger injury. That’s a recipe for a cover, at least.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR) “Detroit makes it close with a 4th quarter surge to come from behind, but falls short.”
– Kevin Wheeler (NFL Mock) “They’re always dangerous at home, but this isn’t your grandmother’s Seahawks. They’re offensive line is arguably the worst in the league. They’re missing their best defensive player (in my opinion). Their running game is a mess. And I’m still convinced Russell Wilson’s knee is affecting his game. I’m not picking the Seahawks to lose, but I don’t think they’ll have the three-touchdown blowout that I would’ve said they’d have in this situation last year.”
– Nick Raducanu (ProjectRoto) “I think the Seahawks win the game but it’s going to be in narrow fashion. Their offense just isn’t good enough to cover 8 points in a playoff environment and the Lions defense is legit as well. Plus, the Seahawks defense struggles on third down and is no longer to be considered the “Legion of Boom.””
– Marc Caviglia (Bruno Boys) “Going into Seattle is still awful, but both of these teams are not playing up to their public perception right now. If one can get more than a touchdown, I’ll side with the points. If we could get specific here, I would take Detroit in the first half and then Seattle in the second.”
– Nick Mariano (RotoBaller) “The home-field advantage is important, but the Seattle offense has been too unpredictable to lay such a big number. The defense has sprung some leaks in recent weeks, as well.”
– Raymond Summerlin (Rotoworld) “The Lions may have backed into the playoffs but with the Seahawks missing a key member of their secondary and their weak offensive line, look for Matthew Stafford and the Lions to keep it close.”
– Brad Richter (Going For 2) “The Seahawks have their share of issues (OL, running game, no Earl Thomas, etc.) and have struggled with consistency. Even if they advance, which I expect, I think the Lions can keep this game within a touchdown.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball) “Seattle has had their periods of struggle offensively and defensively this year. The Lions know all about struggle too, but they’ve actually been playing surprisingly well this season. Newfound RB Zach Zenner should prove to be an interesting threat in this game, which will not finish with a close Seahawks victory.”
– David Biggs (Drink Five) |
“Seattle is 7-1 at home and the Lions are 0-8 all-time in the wild card round. They haven’t won a playoff game since 1991 and they are notoriously bad on the road under Matthew Stafford.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “Seattle wins this one by 10. Stafford is not quite healthy and the 12th man will be out in full force. Too difficult to overcome.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers) “Seattle hasn’t looked great over the last few weeks, but they have a knack for winning in the playoffs. With Stafford’s broken finger, I don’t think the Lions can do enough to keep it competitive.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers) “Since he hurt his finger, Matt Stafford has completed just 60.3% of his passes with 2 TDs and 3 INTs. Now he heads to Seattle, where opposing passers totaled just 8 TDs with 6 INTs in 8 regular-season games.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks) “Detroit is 0-10 in playoff games when they are the visitor. Detroit is used to playing in a dome and are 0-3 in outdoor games this season. Eight points is a lot to give up, but take Seattle and give up the 8 points.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire) “The Lions season comes to an end this week after they once again backed into the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. Detroit may keep it close in the first half but are simply a team that makes no adjustments and have been falling apart in the second half. Look for tight end Jimmy Graham to light up the Detroit defense.”
– Walton Spurlin (FantasySharks) “The Lions are pretenders. They lost to all the 9-win or better teams they faced this season. Against playoff teams, Detroit went 0-5 with a point differential of -53. In other words, they lost each of those games by an average of 10.6 points. Expecting the Lions to beat this spread in a hostile environment against a stingy defense is overly optimistic.”
– Greg Smith (TwoQBs) “The Lions are 0-5 this season against teams that made the playoffs and were outscored by better than 10 points per game in those contests. Meanwhile, Seattle was 7-1 at home in 2016, outscoring opponents by a combined 227 to 116. The Seahawks have also won nine home playoff games in a row dating back to 2005. I think Seattle runs that streak to 10 and wins this game by a comfortable margin.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts) “Seattle will force Detroit to be one dimensional and that usually ends up in poor QB play as passes are forced after drives stall. Big 10+ point win for Seattle.”
– Matt De Lima (ScoutFantasy) “It’s the postseason and that means it’s Russell Wilson time. The Seahawks and the 12th man will hold down the one-dimensional lines.”
– Dan Clasgens (Get Sports Info) “The Lions are just (1-6) against teams with a winning record with that sole win being against (8-7-1) Washington. They are only (3-5) on the road and Seattle has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. Neither team is particularly hot right now, but the Lions have lost three games in a row and they have not been the same since QB Matthew Stafford injured the middle finger on his throwing hand. I like the Seahawks to win by about 10 points at home.”
– Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax) “With the division on the line, Detroit lost each of its final 3 games by double digits … or at least it would have without a TD in the final 15 seconds to pull within 7 of Green Bay. The Lions are trending in the wrong direction, relying heavily on a QB with a bad finger. And Football Outsiders rates their defense worst in the league.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks) “Yes Seattle is not the same Seattle team we are used to in recent years, but they can still get the job done against a Detroit team that is dead last in defense DVOA.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack) “The Lions look like a safe bet to cover this spread based on their high powered offense but closer analysis reveals that the mean average loss to playoff teams is 10.5 points with a mode of 7. The seahawks on the other hand despite some inconsistency are still dominant at home (+11.4; best in the NFL) and should be able to cover the spread here with relative ease.”
– Raju Byfield (Win My Fantasy League) “This is more a pick against the Lions in this spot. A bit overrated with a 9-7 record given the fact they have actually allowed more points this year than they have scored. Seattle has been far from perfect but it’s usually a wise move to back them at home in the playoffs.”
– Sean Koerner (STATS) “It’s getting harder and harder to invest in Seattle, what with its row of turnstiles for an offensive line and its Earl Thomas-less secondary no longer impregnable. But the Lions haven’t won an outdoor game all season, and these ambassadors of America’s automotive capital have been leaking oil and other vital fluids in recent weeks, having lost three straight. Playoff pedigree and the moral support of Seattle’s full-throated 12s help the Seahawks sail through.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “Detroit is garbage. They rank 27th in DVOA, and their “strength” is an offense that ranks 19th in weighted DVOA. Seattle’s O-Line is definitely a liability, but Detroit’s D-Line has been well below average and isn’t the kind of unit to exploit Seattle’s weakness.”
– Brett Talley (The Fantasy Fix) “Seattle has been an up and down squad for the majority of the season but look for the team to get right in front of the home crowd. Matthew Stafford and the Lions’ offense have been heading in the wrong direction for some time.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall) “The Seahawks have not been the same team we’re used to during the regular season, but everything changes at home in the playoffs.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars) “I think this one is tough, but I think Seattle gets it done. They’ve been here before and it’s never easy going into Seattle, even if their defense is not as elite as it has been over the past few years.”
– Kaz Kalita (DraftStars) “The lions have lost three straight by a combined score of 51-90 since Matthew Stafford’s injury to his throwing hand. In addition to their recent woes, Detroit has yet to win a game outdoors this season and will travel cross country to Seattle where the Seahawks are 7-1 on the season and have outscored their last three opponents 95-44. Seattle has never lost a home playoff game with Pete Carroll as their coach (5-0) and I anticipate them having no trouble posting a double-digit victory on Saturday.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football) “8 points is asking a lot of the Earl Thomas-less Seattle defense. Nevertheless, they’re still a lot better than the Lions defense and their experience should help them cover the spread at home.”
– Staff Rankings (Fantasy Knuckleheads) “Detroit’s fate may have been dealt when they lost to Green Bay in week 17. Neither team has much of a running game, and Seattle’s offensive line could have trouble with Ziggy Ansah. However, Russell Wilson seems healthy enough now to use his Houdini acts and make things happen. While Seattle hasn’t been the same team this season, they still have the advantage of the 12th man.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “Seattle is just too tough for a marginally above average team to play in during this time of the year. The Seahawks are going to roll.”
– The FFGhost (Dynasty League Football) “Seattle hasn’t lost a home playoff game in their last nine contests, winning each one by an average of over 10 points. Expect a rowdy home crowd to fuel the Seahawks to a big win.”
– Daniel Marcus (Fantasy-Phenoms) “Detroit is 0-5 versus playoff teams this year — losing by 7-7-11-21-7. The 8 points is a lot to lay, but Seattle is averaging over 30 points per game in their last seven home games. Detroit against top defenses this season has scored (in regulation) 13-16-16-6 (HOU-MIN-MIN-NYG). The Seahawks may be the best D the Lions face this year…and it’s at Seattle.”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics) “Even with a big margin and a struggling run game and pass defense as of late, the Seahawks have still managed to pull off victories, including a 7-1 record against the spread at home. Their offense seems to run better at home, and Detroit has shown susceptible to some blowouts over the last three weeks of the season losing each by an average of 13 points.”
– Staff Rankings (Pyromaniac) |
Thanks to the experts for giving us their picks. Agree or disagree? You can discuss in the comment section below. Be sure to also check out and subscribe to our latest podcast.
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