If Lebron and Kyrie are both out, Jordan McRae should smash value
This has been a fun and frustrating week as a daily fantasy player. Before I jump into tonight’s eight-game slate, I have to say the late injury news out of Chicago and Cleveland a couple nights ago was very frustrating. Pivoting off of LeBron James to Carmelo Anthony was not a bad thing, but do you know how stressful it is to be making lineup changes at two minutes before lineup lock? Well, try making it on a train when your service is guaranteed to go in and out at times.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my article, I am a cash game player. I play 70 percent cash games in NBA and it is how I make most of my fantasy winnings. I also rarely play the main slate in cash. I prefer breaking it down into the smaller four-game slates and spreading my money over the board. That said, I always start with the main slate and make lineups before I break things down into the smaller ones.
If you like to game stack, I suggest using the Cleveland versus Brooklyn game if LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving all play. I’d pair them with guys like Sean Kilpatrick and Brook Lopez. That said, I doubt all three play so the other game I’d consider stacking is Houston versus Orlando. If Kristaps Porzingis is out again, I’d stack the Knicks versus Bucks game. Without game stacking, though, here is who I like for tonight.
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Point Guard
Goran Dragic (MIA): $7,400 @ LAL
It is already rumored that Hassan Whiteside will not play tonight. The team hopes to have him back on Sunday. With Whiteside out, give me all of the Goran Dragic at this price. He only needs 37 DraftKings price to hit value and he has the upside for more than that if you want to roster him in tournaments. With Whiteside and Justice Winslow (out for the season) off the court, Dragic sees an increase of 2.6 percent in usage and 0.13 more fantasy points per minute. I prefer Dragic in cash games, but this matchup is also favorable for tournaments as the Lakers are 23rd in DVP against opposing point guards.
Other Options: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): $10,700 vs. NY
Shooting Guard
Jordan McRae (CLE): $4,600 @ BKN
I am putting McRae here because I am going to assume that both Kyrie Irving and LeBron James are going to sit. I am also going to assume that if that happens, McRae will see the start again. In his start against the Bulls, McRae played 33 minutes and scored 21 real points. He finished with 31 DraftKings points and nearly 8x value. They bumped his salary up $600, but that does not scare me away if he starts again. This is a cash game lineup and he only needs 23.0 DraftKings points to hit cash game value. Be ready to watch injury news and hopefully the Cavs do a better job getting information out quickly tonight.
Other options: Malcolm Brogdon (MIL): $5,700 vs. NY
Small Forward
Jae Crowder (BOS): $5,200 vs. PHI
This selection fell into place based on pricing. Crowder is a solid cash game option who typically hits around 5x value. You can trust his consistency and I locked him with the other guys I chose. He has hit at least 5x value in seven of his last 10 games. The matchup may help too if Joel Embiid sits tonight and Crowder may see an extra rebound or two.
Other options: J.J. Redick (LAC): $5,200 @ SAC
Power Forward
Kevin Love (CLE): $8,100 @ BKN
Remember, this is based on only Love playing out of the big three. If Kyrie and LeBron sit, Love sees a 15 percent increase in usage. That is huge! His usage rate would be 45 percent, which puts him over Russell Westbrook usage. Love also sees 1.62 DraftKings points-per-minute in this situation. If he plays 30 minutes, he will see 48.6 DK points and hit exactly 6x value. If he plays more minutes than just consider that extra frosting on the cake.
Other options: James Johnson (MIA): $5,500 @ LAL
Center
Julius Randle (LAL): $7,200 vs. MIA
Randle has been on a tear and I am going to continue to ride his hot streak. Miami would likely try and guard him with Willie Reed and James Johnson throughout the night. Give me that matchup any day of the week at this salary and Randle is in play for me in cash. Over his last 10 games, Randle is averaging 42.5 fantasy points on DraftKings. This game is at home where Randle has a huge differential in his home/road splits. At home, Randle is averaging 6.9 more DK points. He also has over 50 point upside if you want to consider him in tournaments.
Other options: Nikola Vucevic (ORL): $6,300 @ ORL
Guard
J.J. Redick (LAC): $5,200 @ SAC
Redick has a great price here and looks to be healthy again. He has seen over 35 minutes his last two games and put up over 35 DraftKings points the last time these two teams met. I prefer him in cash, but I could take a risk on him in tournaments tonight too. This all is dependent on Chris Paul (hamstring) being out, though. You could save some money and go Raymond Felton here too. He also has played well in Paul’s absence and the Kings guards do not scare me on defense.
Forward
Ersan Ilyasova (PHI): $6,000 @ BOS
I love Ilyasova in this spot tonight. Even if Embiid plays, Ilyasova has been starting and playing well. Over his last 10 games, Ilyasova has averaged 34.5 DraftKings points. He has a great matchup tonight as Boston is 28th in rebound differential. Robert Covington (back) is questionable too. If he sits, I expect more minutes and opportunities to go Ilyasova’s way. With Covington and Embiid off the floor, Ilyasova sees a 1.4 percent increase in usage. I am on Ilyasova in both cash and tournament formats.
Utility
Nikola Vucevic (ORL): $6,300 vs. HOU
Houston will be in the second game of a back-to-back, and I think Nene Hilario will either be out or see limited minutes. Hilario is punt option by the way in tournaments if he plays tonight and sees similar minutes. That means, Vucevic will see more Montrezl Harrell and I think that is a plus matchup for Vucevic. In his last 10 games, Vucevic has hit over 32 DraftKings points six times. That is good enough for cash game value. Not to mention, five of the six games he was over 40 DraftKings points. He rounds out this lineup nicely in my opinion.
Remember, many things can change from now until tipoff. An hour before lineups lock is when we will see real value and may have to make some drastic changes. Good luck and make sure to look for the FantasyPros updates by downloading the app and setting up the notifications. You would not want to miss news about a guy not playing!
Help yourself out by checking out our NBA Optimal Lineup for today’s slate
Rob Schwarz, Jr. is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Rob, check out his archive. You may also read his work on Fantasy Life, FLAFFLhouse and House Money Fantasy or you can follow him on Twitter @ChiSportsnut25.
