Can Aaron Rodgers beat the Giants’ tough defense?
Wrapping up the Wild Card round will be the white-hot Aaron Rodgers in the late afternoon game (4:40pm ET). Let’s just look at how hot he’s been. In 3 out of his last 4 games, he threw for 11 TDs, 893 yards and these were against good defensive units in the Lions, Vikings, and Seahawks. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 10 and is an amazing 56-15 over his career playing in Lambeau. He’s 4-1 during the month of January and if it seems like we’re only talking about Rodgers, it’s because he is the key to this Packers machine. The only reason the spread isn’t greater is because of the excellent defense he’ll be facing in the New York Giants.
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Now as it’s been pointed out, Rodgers has recently beat some pretty good defenses, but this Giants team is special. They’ve simply got talent all over the defensive side and finished with as the second best unit in DVOA rankings. These two teams have met six times since Rodgers has been the starter and it wasn’t that long ago (2011) when Eli Manning headed to Lambeau and beat Rodgers in a Divisional Round game. This is not foreign territory for Manning and while he hasn’t had his best season by a long shot, the cast around him is as solid as ever with Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and the 1-2 combo of Rashad Jennings and Paul Perkins. The Giants lost to the Pack earlier this season 23-16, but a banged up Packers defense could be the spark plug that Eli and Co. need to start move the ball.
See what the experts think below based on the 4.5 point spread.
More Game Picks:
Raiders at Texans (-3.5) | Lions at Seahawks (-8) | Dolphins at Steelers (-10)
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“It’s going to be very difficult for the Giants to go into Lambo and beat the red hot Green Bay Packers with my MVP pick, Aaron Rodgers. That being said, the Giants defense has been supremely good this year and Green Bay’s has been terrible. Eli isn’t great, but he is a winner in the playoffs, so I’ll take the Giants defense for the win.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers) “While I believe the Packers will pull this game out I like the spread here as well. The Giants have had playoff success at Green Bay but those were different times. Aaron Rodgers is playing lights out football right noe and should lead the Packers to a three-point win.”
– Walton Spurlin (FantasySharks) “This is the most attractive game of the wild-card round, in my opinion. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are on a hot streak and playing at home, but the Giants’ must improved defense was one of the best in the NFL in 2016. Don’t be surprised if this one comes down to the wire.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts) “The last two times the Giants went to Lambeau for a playoff game, they upset the Packers. The Pack will look to break that trend, but this Giants defense will be too much to handle. The Packers defensively are ailing again and need to patch it up quick to somehow stop OBJ.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “I’ll take the Giants without the points. I think they win this straight up. Solid defense, and their offense is underrated.”
– Sean Beazley (EDSFootball) “Opponents hung 23 or more points on Green Bay ten times this season. Eli Manning and the Giants couldn’t do it back in Week 5, but I’m expecting a bounce-back after seeing Matt Barkley and Sam Bradford torch the Packers in Weeks 15 & 16, respectively. Meanwhile, New York’s defense is at the peak of their powers, ranking second on that side of the ball by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. In their final four games, the Giants allowed an average of only 11.8 points. The opposing offenses weren’t pushovers, either. New York held Dallas, Detroit, and Washington to 10 points or fewer in that span. This match-up has upset potential if the good Eli shows up.”
– Greg Smith (TwoQBs) “The spread on this game is somewhat surprising, considering how well the Giants defense has played as of late. This should be the closest game of the week, and getting over a field goal is nice.”
– Mike Tagliere (Pro Football Focus) “The Packers and Giants are both susceptible to big plays. I think one comes down to the last play. Green Bay wins but doesn’t cover the spread.”
– Matt De Lima (ScoutFantasy) “I’m counting on a low scoring game with New York’s defense presenting a real challenge for Green Bay’s passing game. 4.5 points is a tough spread to cover when you’re counting on Crosby field goals rather than Touchdowns.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR) “Much has been made about the Giants last two Super Bowl runs going through Lambeau… it’s meaningless. And yeah, OBJ and the boys were on a boat, and made some odd wardrobe choices… Also meaningless. What does matter? The Giants defense. Rodgers has been on a roll, yes, but they’ll do enough for Eli and the mariners to keep it close.”
– Leonard Francis (Maximize Your Odds) “I’m a Giants fan so of course I’m going to take them as a road dog. They are practicing with frozen balls, so they got that going for them.”
– Kevin Wheeler (NFL Mock) “I don’t have any upset picks in terms of winners this weekend, but if I did…this would be it. There is admittedly no statistical analysis to this, but the Giants just have that look this year. Flying under the radar. Tough defense. Game-changing weapon in Odell Beckham Jr. I know Aaron Rodgers has been playing out of his mind lately, but the Giants have one of the best secondaries in the league and could make the Packers lack of a running game come back to bite them.”
– Nick Raducanu (ProjectRoto) “The final 4 weeks found the Giants holding 2 playoff teams and another near-playoff team (Washington) to 10 points or fewer — all after losing their best defensive player (Jason Pierre-Paul). I wouldn’t bet on them winning this game outright, but I do think they’re capable of doing so.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks) “This is clearly the best game of the weekend with strength against strength. Green Bay ranks 4th in weighted offense DVOA and 23rd in weighted defense DVOA. The Giants rank 23rd and 2nd in those same categories. The Giants D along with cold weather should keep this a relatively low scoring, one-score game.”
– Brett Talley (The Fantasy Fix) “This is the best game of Wild Card weekend and should be a nail biter.I think the winner of this game has a legit chance to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Giants cover the spread, but the Packers win the game late in the 4th quarter.”
– Marc Caviglia (Bruno Boys) “The Giants are a mess offensively, but their defense is keeping them in games. They are my sleeper pick to make it to the Super Bowl.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars) “The Packers, namely Aaron Rodgers, are on fire right now. It’s very difficult to pick against them, but the Giants’ defense is legitimate. The wild card here is Eli Manning and how well he can deliver the ball in Lambeau. This could easily boil down to a field goal, so give me the points.”
– Nick Mariano (RotoBaller) “Eli could very well have his best game of the season versus a terrible Packers secondary. Eli is 9-2 ATS in his playoff career. Pick the G-men +4.5.”
– Staff Rankings (Fantasy Knuckleheads) “This one is going to be the exciting game this week. I think that a field goal will ultimately decide it but I don’t even know for which side. I’ll take the points then.”
– The FFGhost (Dynasty League Football) “The Giants always rise to the occasion against the Packers in the playoffs. The Giants defense won’t make things easy for Aaron Rodgers and the one-dimensional Packers’ offense.”
– Brad Richter (Going For 2) “The Pack are on a roll, but the Giants boast a stingy defense that has allowed an opponent to surpass 20 points only three times in the last 10 games. I give Green Bay the edge, but the final score should be within a field goal.”
– Daniel Marcus (Fantasy-Phenoms) “Giants. I like taking the points in this game as well. The Packers are on a hot streak, yes, but so are the Giants. They have been playing outstanding defense and are, in my opinion, the most likely wild card team to make a deep run. I’ll gladly take the best defense in the NFC as the ones who can stop the Packers wild ride. It doesn’t hurt that the Giants have Odell Beckham Jr. against a beat up secondary, and will certainly keep the game close. Last team to possess the ball will probably win, and I’ll take the points in those games every time.”
– David Biggs (Drink Five) – Sean Koerner (STATS)
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“New York’s defense is legit, but Green Bay is on fire with 6 straight wins and feels like a team of destiny. Aaron Rodgers feels unstoppable ad New York’s offense is pretty meh. The Giants are also just 4-4 on the road in 2016.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “I can’t pick against the Packers in Lambeau. I have them winning this one by 6 points, with the Giants offense simply unable to keep up with the Packers at home.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers) “Green Bay is on a roll and will not only win, but easily cover in this game. Aaron Rodgers should have another MVP caliber game.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire) “The Packers look like they’re playing angry these days. I feel they could run the table and it’ll start with an impressive win over the Giants.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts) “You’d have to be a crazy person if you think I’d pick against Aaron Rodgers right now. The Packers offense has been firing on all cylinders, while the defense is doing enough to keep racking up W’s. The Packers will convincingly take care of business in Lambeau.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion) “I’m a huge Packers fan (and owner), so maybe I’m biased here. But Aaron Rodgers has been amazing during the Packers six-game winning streak and Eli Manning has been anything but this season. The Giants defense presents a tough test for Green Bay, but I’m expecting the Packers to exercise some of their recent playoff demons versus New York.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts) “The Packers are one of the hottest teams in football right now; the Giants defense has been amazing but the Packers will find a way.”
– James Hatfield (Hatty Waiver Wire Guru) “There’s not much room left on the Aaron Rodgers bandwagon, but it’s the Packers’ D that is going unnoticed of late. The Giants will keep it close, but the Packers will prevail and get the cover late.”
– Dan Clasgens (Get Sports Info) “This is a fascinating matchup between two very different teams. The Packers have won six in a row and QB Aaron Rodgers has 15 touchdowns and no picks in the last six games. The Giants have won nine of their last 11 games and they have done that with a defense that is second in points allowed and 10th in yards gained. I like the Packers in this game. They beat the Giants 23-16 earlier in the year, had the same bad secondary they have now and the Giants offense could not exploit the favorable matchup. Rodgers will not have a monster day, but it will be big enough to win at home, probably by a similar score to the first matchup.”
– Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax) “Most interesting game on the slate. I think in the end, Eli is too washed to pull it out.”
– Andrew Ferris (FFLockerRoom) “Green Bay’s offense is firing on all cylinders right now and even a defense as good as New York’s is not going to be able to stop it. Packers win this one easy with the lack of offense from the Giants, who have failed to score over 20 points in the last five games.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack) “Do you prefer the team with the strong offense and mediocre defense, or the one with the strong defense and mediocre offense? (I’m a lifelong Packer backer, so excuse me for not being able to hear your answer as I scream for Eli Manning’s blood.) “
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “No player in the league is better with his back up against the wall than Aaron Rodgers. The Pack have been succeeding in “playoff” games for over a month and will keep the momentum rolling at home in frigid conditions.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall) “Everyone on the opposite side is going to play the Eli in the playoffs narrative, but they could not be anymore wrong this time around. Eli has looked horrendous this season and the Packers are absolutely on fire. This is the easiest pick of the week in my opinion.”
– Kaz Kalita (DraftStars) “The Giants are not as good as their record, and while the defense is great, Aaron Rodgers has looked unstoppable. Eli Manning will need to put some points on the board, and the Giants have not scored 20 since Week 12.”
– Raymond Summerlin (Rotoworld) “Arguably the best and most difficult game to pick this week. Much has been made about the success of Eli Manning in the playoffs, and there is no denying Eli’s ability to come through in clutch moments. After-all, he owns a 7-0 playoff record when going in to the game as the underdog. However, he has also been knocked out in the first round 3 times. The Green Bay secondary has been terrible and Odell Beckham Jr and company should have a field day with them. As good as the Giants defense is, Green Bay just has too many weapons to stop them all. New York will ineffectively try to run the ball to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, but this game is going to be decided through the air. It will be close and high scoring, ultimately ending with the Packers covering the spread.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “I get the hotter team at home in weather more conducive for Aaron Rodgers than Eli Manning. The Green Bay defense has been playing much better during their win streak — giving up junk points late, but holding teams to reasonable scoring when the game matters the last six weeks. I’ll take Green Bay winning by at least a TD…which they did earlier this season against the Giants.”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics) “Even though the Giants have one of the best defenses in the NFL, my trust in Aaron Rodgers (18 TDs and no INTs in past seven games) is much greater than it is in Eli Manning (202+ yards in one of past six games).”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball) |
Thanks to the experts for giving us their picks. Agree or disagree? You can discuss in the comment section below. Be sure to also check out and subscribe to our latest podcast.
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