Brock Osweiler doesn’t need to be good to win, he just needs to not be bad with the Texans D behind him
The Silver & Black are back in the playoffs, but this is no easy ride as they limp in with their rookie quarterback, Connor Cook, getting his first start in the playoffs. In fact, no rookie in the history of the NFL has ever made his first career start in the playoffs. On the other side, the Texans will be going back to their $72M dud in Brock Osweiler. The fact is, this matchup is all about Houston’s defense which finished with the second fewest passing yards allowed by any team all season. If they can keep Oakland’s ground game under control, this could be the one that everybody snoozes through.
Keep your season going with FanDuel’s $500K Saturday Rush
The consensus believes Houston will cover, find out why below.
More Game Picks:
Lions at Seahawks (-8) | Dolphins at Steelers (-10) | Giants at Packers (-4.5)
|
|
|
45%of Experts |
55%of Experts |
|
“Neither of these teams should be laying more than three points to the other. I’ll happily take the 3.5.”
– Michael Beller (Sports Illustrated) “Houston’s defense will be able to keep anything the Raiders can muster with their deficiencies at QB, but the Raiders should be able to keep it close enough. Houston wins but only by 3.”
– Andy Holloway (The Fantasy Footballers) “I like the Texans at home to win the game, but in an uninspiring battle between two QBs that shouldn’t be starting for the Browns, I’m going to take the points.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers) “While I think Houston wins this one, it figures to be low-scoring and ugly. So give me the Raiders plus the points.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks) “Nobody likes this game. With a 36.5 Over/Under and a 3rd string quarterback going up against a $72 million dollar bust, the Twitter community has dubbed this the worse playoff game in decades. I’m optimistic, though. I feel each team will play like they have nothing to lose considering the circumstances and each quarterback plays slightly better than expected. This game boils down to the Raiders offense versus the Texans defense. I think this is a tight battle, down to the wire with a field goal to clinch it. I like the Texans to win but only by 3 or less.”
– Mike Rigz (Gridiron Experts) “I see the Texans winning the battle of the ‘bad’ quarterbacks this week but like the Raiders to cover the spread. Oakland will look to pound the ball on the ground and that will limit Houston’s chances to score. The fact that Brock Osweiler is playing will also limit Houston’s ability to score.”
– Walton Spurlin (FantasySharks) “The Raiders have a big intangible coming into this contest – the injured Derek Carr. Playoffs as you know are the games where emotion plays a huge part. I’m banking on a hard fought effort by the Raiders defense and Khalil Mack.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “Is 3.5 points the spread or the over/under on this game? With Brock Osweiler and Connor Cook as the opposing quarterbacks, I’m expecting a low-scoring affair and as such, I’m not comfortable laying more than a single possession on either of these teams. Give me the Raiders and the points.”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts) “Not that I trust Connor Cook, but compared to Brock Osweiler I’d take almost always take the other team when the game means something. This will be lower scoring meaning the winner takes it by three points. 3.5 is too much.”
– Adam Zdroik (Today’s Pigskin) “I expect the Raiders to run the ball as often as possible and Houston doesn’t have the caliber of offense to force the game flow in the other direction. Oakland wins outright.”
– Matt De Lima (ScoutFantasy) “This game is a coin-flip to me. Home field is a big plus for the Texans and their D is up for the task. I expect a low-scoring affair and could see the Raiders doing just enough on the ground, with their defense and Sebastian Janikowski to keep it close versus Brock Osweiler. The hook is enough for me to go with Oakland and take my chances with 3.5 points to work with.”
– Dan Clasgens (Get Sports Info) “Oakland almost certainly covers, and probably pulls out the win, even with a rookie QB.”
– Kevin Wheeler (NFL Mock) “Houston has the league’s top defense, is 7-1 at home and is facing an inexperienced third-string rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. When these two teams squared off this season in Mexico City, the Texans fared quite well before letting the game controversially slip away- and that was against Derek Carr. However, Brock Osweiler being back under center does nothing to help Houston’s stagnant offense, and I see the Texans defense stepping up and winning a low-scoring, ugly affair that is likely to be yet another close contest.”
– Jody Smith (Gridiron Experts) “We’ve been waiting to bet against Brock Osweiler in the first round for months. We almost had the chance to do so taken away from us, but it has been given back. I won’t let Connor Cook scare me away from betting against Osweiler.”
– Brett Talley (The Fantasy Fix) “Both teams are quarterback deprived but the Raiders have better skill players and their defense does just enough. This will be a close one, but give me the Raiders and the points.”
– Marc Caviglia (Bruno Boys) “I think this is a game that the Raiders could possibly win, even without Derek Carr. Bill O’Brien and Brock Osweiler do not get along and the Texans’ defense is not nearly as good as everyone thinks it is.”
– Kaz Kalita (DraftStars) ” The 3.5 points given to the Raiders suggest the linemakers believe this is an evenly matched contest. The Texans defense is one of the league’s best, but the Raiders will use the run and rely on short, quick passes to move the ball. Most experts will be on the Texans because of Connor Cook starting at quarterback. We haven’t seen much of Cook, but we have seen plenty of Brock Osweiler. That’s enough of a reason for me to take the points and go with the Raiders.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “With both teams forced to pivot to a less preferred quarterback option, you need to look to who has the better overall team. The Raiders have been good on the road all season and their offensive line will be the difference.”
– Brad Richter (Going For 2) “I have zero faith in Brock Osweiler, so I’ll take the points, even with a rookie QB making his first-ever start on the other side.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball) “In what will be one of the ugliest games this weekend, the matchup is going to be decided by a field goal or less as no team has a QB that can drive their team downfield. The kickers should be busy on both teams with no offense being able to punch the ball past the opposing defenses.”
– Tony Mauriello (ProjectRoto) – Sean Koerner (STATS)
|
“Houston is 7-1 at home and the Raiders are down to their third string quarterback. Enough said.”
– Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “So it’s Connor Cook versus Brock Osweiler this week? Can Derek Carr play with a broken fibula? A mentally depleted Raider team packs it in early against Houston. Going with the Texans, but holding my nose in this playoff matchup.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire) “I will take Houston’s defense at home vs. an inexperienced QB any day. I think Lamar Miller is the difference in this one.”
– Sean Beazley (EDSFootball) “In a game of maimed offenses, the better defense will prevail. Houston ranks first in the league in yards allowed per game, compared to 26th for Oakland. This is a world where Brock Osweiler wins a playoff game.”
– Donald Gibson (Fantasy Fusion) “The points are tempting, especially with uninspiring passers on both sides of the ball, but I’ll lay them on the defensive mismatch with Houston. The Raiders have a good offensive line, but the Texans are solid enough in coverage to contain Connor Cook in the first start of his NFL career.”
– Greg Smith (TwoQBs) “The Raiders are a different team without Derek Carr, and their run game will struggle against a Texans run defense that hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown in eight weeks. Look for Houston to lean heavily on a well rested Lamar Miller.”
– Mike Tagliere (Pro Football Focus) “The defense is enough to overcome in this matchup and the Texans will end up on top; the Raiders without Carr are lost at sea.”
– James Hatfield (Hatty Waiver Wire Guru) “The Oakland Raiders were a Super Bowl contender until QB Derek Carr suffered a broken leg and was not able to compete in the playoffs. The injury likely cost them the AFC West and now they will have to play three road games. I cannot see them scoring enough points against the Texans top-ranked yardage defense, even with Houston’s poor quarterback situation. I like the Texans to win an ugly game at home.”
– Derek Lofland (Fantasy Football Maniax) “We just watched a better prepared Raiders QB lose by 18 to a sub-par opposing QB with a strong defense. I’d welcome Connor Cook proving me wrong, but it’s hard to see a better outcome this week.”
– Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR) “Connor Cook will be the first QB ever in NFL history to make his first start in a game in the playoffs. The Texans have a decent defense.”
– Dalton Del Don (Yahoo! Sports) “Texans cover for three reasons: 1. defense, 2. home field, and 3. Connor Cook. Wasn’t impressed with Cook at Michigan State, and he did little to change that last week. While the Raiders should lean on the ground game (and find success), tough draw for his first NFL start.”
– Leonard Francis (Maximize Your Odds) “I want to pick Oakland to outright win this one. I really do. But I just can’t go there with Connor Cook. I realize Brock Osweiler is REALLY bad himself, but I have to defer to the home team and better defense in what should be everybody’s “hey honey, I’m not watching playoff football just so I can spend more time with you” game.”
– Nick Raducanu (ProjectRoto) “Oakland’s a lopsided team in favor of the offense, and that unit fell apart when Derek Carr broke his leg. The run game has the talent but can’t figure out who to give the ball to. Tough to bet on at this point.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks) “While the Texans have big question marks on offense, they have built a great defense even without JJ Watt as their run defense only allows 99.7 yards per game. The Raiders are down to 3rd string QB Connor Cook, and the Texans will load the box with 8 to blunt Oakland’s three-headed rushing attack. Also, the Raiders will actually give Brock Osweiler time to throw, as they allow 258 yards passing per game, and they have only sacked opposing QB’s 25 times this year.”
– Dan Yanotchko (EDSFootball) “Oakland without Derek Carr is going to struggle to move the ball on the Houston defense. I’m not a big fan of Brock Osweiler, but should be able to do enough to cover.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack) “I despise having to pick against the Raiders in this one, but the Derek Carr injury is too demoralizing for Oakland to overcome. The Texans advance and await execution in the divisional round.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “In the ugliest game of the weekend slate, you gotta give the nod to the home team with the superior defense.”
– Wayne Bretsky (BretskyBall) “The Raiders are starting rookie Connor Cook, who will struggle on the road in a hostile environment.”
– Adam Sutton (DraftStars) “The only reliable commodity here is Houston’s defense, which has performed well all year despite having an awful offense stranding them on the field often. Oakland’s rushing attack could also be viewed as such, but with no aerial threat to balance things out I am not comfortable calling it reliable. Give me the better defense at home.”
– Nick Mariano (RotoBaller) “I’m banking on Houston creating enough turnovers to cover the spread versus a 3rd string quarterback on the road.”
– Staff Rankings (Fantasy Knuckleheads) “This will be a battle of the defenses and running games. The Raiders’ rushing attack struggled last week against a bad Denver front, and the Texans clearly have the better defense. It does not hurt this game is in Houston.”
– Raymond Summerlin (Rotoworld) “The Raiders looked great this season and if the midseason version was the one playing this game I’d be all over Oakland. However, the wheels have fallen off in recent weeks and the injuries are mounting, I just don’t think it’s Oakland’s year despite how it seemed most of the season.”
– The FFGhost (Dynasty League Football) “The Houston defense should be able to force turnovers and pressure quarterback Connor Cook enough to hide their own quarterback issues.”
– Daniel Marcus (Fantasy-Phenoms) “Oakland was 1-3 against playoff teams this season — with Derek Carr at QB. The one win was over Houston…that Monday night game where the referees botched several calls to hand the Raiders a win. Oakland is overrated, and now working with an under-prepared 3rd-string QB. I don’t love Houston, but I have to take them here.”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics) “Houston. Osweiler has been a terrible quarterback this season, but Houston has great offensive threats both in the passing and running game, not to mention a top-rate defense when they have it together. With Connor Cook under center, the Raiders are going to embarrass themselves in this matchup.”
– David Biggs (Drink Five) |
Thanks to the experts for giving us their picks. Agree or disagree? You can discuss in the comment section below. Be sure to also check out and subscribe to our latest podcast.
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS