The 2017-18 college football bowl season promises to feature some exciting games. As of the writing of this article, the betting markets only expect two teams, Florida Atlantic and Florida State, to win their bowl games by 10 points or more.
On their heels is a big block of teams all expected to win by around a touchdown. Some of those teams, like Michigan (favored by 7.5 points over South Carolina in the Outback Bowl), are being fairly valued by the public in bowl pick’em contests. In other words, bowl pool players are picking Michigan about as often as you’d expect, based on Michigan’s chance to win.
However, some glaring inefficiencies also exist in regards to public picking trends with this year’s bowl games. A few teams in particular are being almost criminally underrated by your coworkers, fellow sports bar patrons, and other potential opponents in your college bowl pool.
Below we highlight five under-the-radar college bowl picks that could help you get a big leg up in your college bowl pick’em contest.
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TeamRankings has provided picks, tools, and analysis for football pools since 2000. Check out their expert college bowl pool picks and college bowl betting picks.
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Bowl Pick Strategy: Focus On Favorites First
There’s often no better way to increase the expected value of your college football bowl pool entry than to pick a favored team that also ends up being a relatively unpopular pick in your pool.
Underrated favorites offer two big benefits. First, you’re picking the more likely team to win and taking on less risk than opponents who pick the other way. Second, if your pick wins as expected, you create a disproportionate amount of separation in the standings between you and your pool opponents.
The catch? These value pick opportunities often arise because of some popular public narrative that is being blown out of proportion.
Maybe the public is reading too much into a great win-loss record without considering a team’s schedule strength, or overestimating the significance of a team being ranked vs. unranked in the AP poll.
So to exploit these opportunities, you need to be comfortable bucking the crowd and trusting solid data instead.
Under-The-Radar Bowl Picks, Part One (3 Favorites)
Based on the betting markets, our objective power ratings, and public picking trends published by ESPN’s Bowl Mania pick’em game, here are three picks involving favored teams that look particularly underrated this bowl season:
1. Ohio over UAB
Bahamas Bowl
Point Spread: Ohio -7.5
Favored by more than a touchdown, Ohio is one of the most likely teams to win its bowl game this year, with over 70% win odds. Yet public picks are currently split almost exactly 50/50 on this game. Perhaps that’s because UAB got press for its surprising success this year, and Ohio will be without leading rusher A.J. Ouellette. However, that’s widely known information already incorporated into the betting lines. At full strength, our power ratings would favor Ohio by more than 10 points on a neutral field.
Full matchup analysis at TeamRankings.com
2. Oregon over Boise State
Las Vegas Bowl
Point Spread: Oregon -7
Oregon has been as high as a 7.5-point favorite in recent days, and the Ducks have more than a 70% chance to win this game. However, Oregon is only being picked by around 26% of bowl pick’em entries. That’s a huge discrepancy, but common narratives are at play: Boise State has a better win-loss record, Boise State is ranked in the AP and Coaches’ polls (barely, at #25 in both) while Oregon is unranked, and Oregon head coach Willie Taggart just bolted for Florida State. Our predictive ratings imply that this game may be closer than Vegas thinks, but even so, Oregon still ranks as the better team and is an extremely unpopular pick considering they are the favorite.
Full matchup analysis at TeamRankings.com
3. Utah over West Virginia
Heart Of Dallas Bowl
Point Spread: Utah -7
The also-huge discrepancy between win odds and pick popularity for Utah (over 70% win odds, only 21% picked) is likely explained by a number of factors. Utah is a .500 team (6-6) that has lost six of its last eight games, while West Virginia is 7-5 and has a much stronger national reputation as a football school. Still, Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is 10-1 all-time in bowl games, and Utah draws a West Virginia team with injured quarterback Will Grier looking highly unlikely to play. Even if you considered this game an even matchup, the extreme popularity of West Virginia would make Utah the smarter pick.
Full matchup analysis at TeamRankings.com
When To Gamble On Upset Picks
The more entries there are in your college bowl pool, the more likely it is that one or a few of your opponents are going to get really lucky with their picks. The bad news is, you still need to beat those people in order to come in first place.
As a result, increasing your odds to win larger bowl pools often requires you to take some significant (yet educated) gambles, and hope they come through. That means giving strong consideration to picking one or more teams that aren’t expected to win their games (true underdogs), but that very few of your opponents are likely to pick.
Alternatively, your bowl pool’s scoring system may award some bonus points for correctly picking underdogs, which would be another reason to consider picking more of them.
Under-The-Radar Bowl Picks, Part Two (2 Underdogs)
If you want to take some more significant risks to buck the crowd, these picks currently look like two of the best options:
4. Washington over Penn State
Fiesta Bowl
Point Spread: Penn State -2
Based on betting market odds and our power ratings, Washington’s odds to win this game are around 45%, which is pretty close to a coin flip. Less than 20% of bowl pool entries nationwide are picking the Huskies, though. Penn State has the better brand recognition and better AP ranking, but the point spread has moved a point in Washington’s direction early on, after opening at Penn State -3. The Huskies could be more than up to the task of stopping standout Penn State running back Saquon Barkley, as Washington has the #2 ranked defense in terms of opponent yards per rush.
Full matchup analysis at TeamRankings.com
5. Texas Tech over South Florida
Birmingham Bowl
Point Spread: South Florida -2.5
Picking Texas Tech, with win odds in the 40% range, is more of a risk than picking Washington, but a paltry 10% of bowl pool entries nationwide are on the Red Raiders. Typical narratives again apply: South Florida is 9-2 while Texas Tech is only 6-6, South Florida is ranked while Texas Tech is not. Factoring in schedule strength and scoring margins, though, our power ratings have South Florida as less than a point better than Texas Tech on a neutral field. With 90% of entries picking South Florida, correctly picking a Texas Tech upset would carry a major reward in terms of increasing your odds to win your pool.
Full matchup analysis at TeamRankings.com
Combined, there’s almost a 70% chance that either Washington and/or Texas Tech come away with a victory this bowl season.
Remember that this analysis is based on national picking trends, and it’s possible that picking trends in your pool(s) could be significantly different in some cases. For example, if you’re in a pool based in Seattle that’s full of Washington alumni, then the Huskies are probably going to be a much more popular pick compared to the national trends, and consequently, not nearly as good a value as an upset gamble.
Making The Best Possible Bowl Picks For Your Pool
Whether you should make all or just some of the picks above — not to mention, which team you should pick in all of the other 35 bowl games — depends largely on the characteristics of your pool. The format, scoring system, and the total number of entries all play a role in determining how conservative or risky your picks should be overall.
There’s a ton of data and math required to figure out the specific combination of picks that give you the best chance to win your specific pool, especially if your pool requires assigning confidence points to each pick.
If you want to maximize your edge in bowl pick’em pools this year, use our Bowl Pick’em Picks. It’s the only product that applies algorithms to customize recommended picks for your specific pool, and the results speak for themselves. Last year our customers took first place in college bowl pools five times as often as expected.
TeamRankings has provided data-driven picks, tools, and analysis for football and March Madness pools since 2000. You can check out their college bowl pool picks and college bowl betting picks.
