The pitching selections for tonight’s slate are headlined by an ace southpaw who draws a matchup that’s seemingly tough, but perhaps isn’t actually tough. He’s joined by another lefty and a pair of bargain righties. The hitters are comprised of some power-chasing one-offs and a mid-order, three-man stack.
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Pitchers
James Paxton (SEA): $10,700 vs. Red Sox
Boston’s lineup is loaded, right? Well, it does have some serious talent near the top of the order, but they collectively have their struggles with southpaws. They were notably no-hit by Sean Manaea earlier in the year, and Paxton’s no stranger to no-hitters having thrown one this season. Alas, I digress. Getting the train back on the tracks, the Red Sox are tied for 26th in wRC+ (84) against left-handed pitchers this year and have the fifth highest strikeout rate (24.6% K%) against them, per FanGraphs. They’ve also been a considerably less fearsome offense on the road. They’ve tallied a 121 wRC+ at home, but that drops to a 101 wRC+ on the road. Boston’s team over/under total of three runs, according to Pinnacle, is tied with two other teams for the lowest on the slate. Paxton and the host M’s are -151 favorites. For his part, “Big Maple” has been outstanding this year with a 3.02 ERA (2.79 FIP, 3.13 xFIP, and 3.00 SIERA as well as a 2.68 DRA, per Baseball Prospectus), 1.01 WHIP, 7.1% BB%, and 31.4% K%. At a steep discount ($2,900) from Corey Kluber and $1,400 from Charlie Morton, Paxton is easily my favorite pitching option in all game types tonight.
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