Last week was fun for golf with the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Maui but now we turn our attention to the first full-field event of the year. There are 144 golfers slated to start the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Hawaii. The top 70 golfers (plus ties) will make the cut and play on the weekend. Waialae CC is a little shorter than the average PGA event as it’s a Par-70, 7,044-yard course. Historically speaking, any type of player can play well at the Sony Open, which puts everybody in play this week. However, realistically speaking, you’ll need to get 6 of 6 through to the weekend to have a good shot at cashing. In a no-cut event, you can take multiple low-priced players in a stars and scrubs approach. In a normal full-field event, if you take a chance on a lower-priced player, then they should be a cut maker. Even though anyone can win from week to week, the odds of you picking that low-priced sleeper that will win is not likely.
All of the plays that I mention in this article are those that I will be considering for my lineups. That doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Realize that golf is the DFS sport that probably has the most variance from week to week. Anyone can miss a cut and anyone can finish in the top 5 (or even win). Remember to check the news and social media reports on the morning of the event. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news for, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process using all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and have fun!
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
Six of the last seven champions competed in the Sentry TOC the week before. Overall, 14 of the last 20 champions have played in Maui the previous week. Taking it to another level were Ernie Els and Justin Thomas when they won both events in the same year in 2003 and 2017, respectively.
Since the first Sony Open in 1965, Russell Henley (2013) is the only player to win the event in his first try.
The previous five winners are Patton Kizzire (2018), Justin Thomas (2017), Fabian Gomez (2016), and Jimmy Walker (2015 & 2014).
The average cut line has been -2 and the average winning score has been -21. Patton Kizzire won with a -17 last year and Justin Thomas won with a -27 the year before.
Even though the course is in Hawaii, unlike last week’s TOC, everything about the course is pretty average compared to the other courses on tour – with the exception of more narrow fairways. The course is flat, short and the greens are of average speed and size.
RECENT FORM
Bryson DeChambeau ($12,400)
Six straight top-20 finishes with an astounding three victories during that stretch. Think about that – a 50% win rate in his last six events! That is Tiger-esque. Last week he was seventh at the Tournament of Champions.
Gary Woodland ($12,000)
He played great last week and was the runner up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. That gave him his sixth top-12 finish in his last seven events. He has made 16 straight cuts, which is the longest current streak on tour.
Cameron Champ ($11,600)
He finished T11 last week giving him six straight top-25 finishes. His last three events have been T11 > 6 > T10. He won at Sanderson Farms back at the end of October.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Gary Woodland ($12,000)
Three top-10 finishes in the last four years, with his only “down” year being in 2016 when he only finished T13.
Zach Johnson (10,100)
Three top-10 finishes in the last five years. He also finished T14 last year. He is the 2010 winner and has made the cuts 11 of the last 12 times he has played here.
Jerry Kelly ($7,800)
This will most likely be the only time all year that Jerry Kelly is mentioned in my articles but it is hard to argue with his success here. Outside of an MC in 2017, he has been in the top 15 four of the last five years. If you get into the way back machine, you’ll also see that he won the 2002 Sony Open. Overall, he has made 17/21 cuts with nine top 10s at the Sony Open.
COURSE FIT
Last week’s course had some of the largest fairways on tour, but this week’s course has smaller fairways. Historically, though, golfers are not penalized very much for missing the fairway. Obviously, you’d rather be in the fairway than not but the rough is not too penal. Iron play and approaches are key at this course. In looking at Shots Gained Approach, there are seven players that are in the Top-10 for both the last 24 rounds and last 50 rounds played. Bryson DeChambeau ($12,400), Justin Thomas ($12,300), Hideki Matsuyama ($11,300), Adam Scott ($10,600), Keegan Bradley ($9,800), Stewart Cink ($9,200), and Sam Ryder (8,900) are golfers that could have strong weeks because of their iron play and approach game.
Just like last week at Kapalua, these greens are Bermuda. Unlike last week, these greens are of average speed and average size. Most players that have done well in the past here have putted well. When examining Strokes Gained Putting (on bermuda grass) on the PGA Tour, there are four players that are ranked in the Top-10 for both the last 24 and last 50 rounds. Kevin Kisner ($9,600), Johnson Wagner ($8,800), Michael Thompson ($8,500), and Luke Donald ($8,000) are golfers to keep an eye on that have shown that they can get hot with the flat stick.
The last three winners (Patton Kizzire, Justin Thomas, and Fabian Gomez) finished in the Top-10 for the week in proximity but were outside the Top-50 in driving accuracy. As we mentioned earlier, even though the fairways are narrow, it is not necessary to hit the fairways. When looking at Proximity rankings, there are five players ranked in the Top-10 in both proximity for the last 24 rounds and the last 50 rounds. Kyle Stanley ($9,900), Chez Reavie ($9,400), Sam Ryder ($8,900), Ryan Armour ($8,300), and Vaughn Taylor ($8,400) are players to consider even though they might not be bombers and they might not appear on many people’s radars this week. These could be some sleepers this week because of their proximity rankings.
FAVORITE STUD
Justin Thomas ($12,300)
I absolutely like each of the three highest-priced players this week (Woodland, Thomas, and DeChambeau) and wouldn’t be surprised to see them all finish in the top 5. I will probably end up playing them all equally if I enter multiple lineups in the same contest. For my single-entry contests, I may end up taking the player with the least projected ownership. As for right now, I am probably leaning JT and this is only because I faded him last week at the TOC. That isn’t a sound reason but when you like three guys equally, I guess that will have to do. JT is playing really well right now as his solo third-place finish at the TOC confirms. He also has done really well at the Sony Open in the past. Vegas really likes him at 6:1, which is always something that we should pay some attention to.
FAVORITE VALUES
Marc Leishman ($10,900)
Normally I only give you one favorite in each of the categories but today you get a special bonus. This week’s value plays are a little higher priced than normal but you get two of them and both are underpriced in my opinion. Leishman is the 4th highest priced player on DK ($2,300 above average) but only 9th ($900 above average) on FD. He has made 13 straight cuts and has three top-4 finishes in his last four events, including a win at the CIMB Classic back in October. As for the Sony Open, he only has two top-10 finishes but has made all nine of his cuts.
Cameron Smith ($10,200)
He is the eighth highest-priced player on DK ($1,100 more than average). On FD, he is only the 15th highest-priced player and is a mere $200 more than the average price for roster construction. He is definitely not a household name but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a good player. Unfortunately, he didn’t play in the TOC last week but he has played this event in the past finishing 18th (2018) and 27th (2017) in his last two tries. Coming into this event, he is on a roll. He won the last even that he played in (Australian PGA Championship in December). He has made 13 straight cuts, which includes four top 10s and seven top 25s.
FAVORITE PUNT
Rory Sabbatini ($7,600)
I typically try to play it safe in golf DFS and not punt too often. When I do, it is a guy that makes a lot of cuts or a guy that I have a really good feeling about. Those feelings are dangerous in golf, especially when there is such a premium on getting all six of your golfers through to the weekend. I can’t figure Sabbatini out but he is dirt cheap and has the talent and experience to really pay off the salary. If you are going to go bargain shopping, he is not a bad option. He had a stretch last year where he made 13 of 14 cuts. He also has missed the cut or withdrawn from five of his last 10 events. At the Sony Open, he has made three of his last four cuts, including a T6 in 2015. He is not a safe pick, nor is he a glamorous pick but his price is extremely attractive if you are set on a punt play. All you need from him is a made cut this week to pay off his salary.
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Jordan Spieth ($11,400)
#FOMO. I love Jordan Spieth, but I lost so much money on him last year because (1) I am a big fan and (2) I had the Fear Of Missing Out. I didn’t want to listen to my head and not play him the week that it all came together. It never did. All of my DFS football winnings were donated back to the DFS community because of my refusal to avoid Jordan Spieth. My New Year’s Resolution is to have more money at the end of the year. One way that I will accomplish this is by fading Jordan Spieth. If you could see me right now, you’d see that I am at a chalkboard. I will not play Jordan Spieth. I will not play Jordan Spieth. I will not play Jordan Spieth. I will not play Jordan Spieth. Seriously, he has the fifth-highest salary but has missed three cuts in his last 11 events. In that same span, he only has one top 10. He is not worth his salary right now. I will not play Jordan Spieth. I will not play Jordan Spieth. I will not play Jordan Spieth. But then again, #FOMO.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. His DFS twitter is @WinningDFS101, and his website is www.FantasyFocusFootball.com. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
