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Super Bowl: NFL Game Picks Against the Spread (2019 Playoffs)

Jan 31, 2019

The biggest game in America is just days away and no matter how each team got here, the battle between the Patriots and Rams should be a great one. With just a 2.5 point spread and an over/under of 56.5 we should expect to see multiple touchdowns from each team in a close fought battle. It’s easy to say this is Tom Brady and the Patriots in another Super Bowl so just hand it to them already. However, these two teams have not met once in the Sean McVay era so anything is possible as the familiarity is simply not there. When it comes to playing against the spread, we should dive deep into why any given team should cover.  To help with the analysis, we have the most accurate sports betting experts giving their thoughts below to help identify which picks you should have the most confidence in.

View picks from the entire consensus for the Super Bowl >>

Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread and why?

“The Los Angeles Rams by 2.5 points feels like the proper bet to me at this point. The New England Patriots’s “mystique” is likely influencing this line. The Rams have younger, more explosive players on offense and while the Patriots have an experience edge, I am taking the underdog in a game where I feel like the teams are evenly matched.”
– Davis Mattek (DailyRoto)

“The line is close enough that it essentially comes down to which team is more likely to win, and that’s New England. The biggest hope the Rams have is that their defensive line, with Donald and Suh, can consistently collapse the pocket and make life miserable for Tom Brady, but the Patriots’s offensive line is excellent at limiting inside pass rushes, and Brady gets the ball out as quickly as anyone. On the other side, I think New England can stop Los Angeles’s running game and force Goff to make a series of accurate throws downfield. Goff can do that, but I don’t see him going the whole game without a couple of major mistakes, while I do see Brady nickel-and-dime-ing the Rams to death.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post)

Rams +2.5: Interior pressure from Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh will be key. Brady’s sustained only three QB hits in two playoff games. But in each of the Pats’s five losses this season, Brady endured 5+ hits.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

Patriots -2.5: The Patriots are peaking at the right time. Two of their best weapons (Rob Gronkowski and James White) also exploit weaknesses the Rams have. Goff has been underwhelming in the playoffs so far, so expect New England to key on the run game first.”
– Zach Brunner (FlurrySports)

View full set of consensus picks Against the Spread here >>

Q2. Do you believe the teams will hit the over/under and why?

Under: 56.5
“The under is generally not a public bet. No one wants to root for a low-scoring, boring game. However, both of these teams like to run the ball and can do it well which shrinks the total number of plays run in the game.”
– Davis Mattek (DailyRoto)

Under: 56.5
“I like the under because, ideally, each of these teams would like to impose its will on the other and run the ball. I think the Patriots will be more able to do that, and while it’s not out of the question for the Rams, I also think New England has a good enough secondary to limit big plays in the Los Angeles passing game.”
– Des Bieler (The Washington Post)

Over: 56.5
“The Rams enter Sunday averaging 33.75 PPG over their last 4. The Pats come in at 35. Perhaps the Rams’ youth pops up on the game’s biggest stage. But with two up-tempo teams playing in a dome, I’ll side with the over.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

Under: 56.5
“The Patriots have scored just three first-quarter points through eight Super Bowl appearances in the Belichick/Brady era. I believe this trend continues despite how hot this offense has been. On the other side, the Rams haven’t been the dominating force they were early this season.”
– Zach Brunner (FlurrySports)

View full set of consensus Over/Under game picks here >>

Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more advice throughout the playoffs.

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