The PLAYERS Championship is a star-studded field and this week on DraftKings there are eight golfers priced at $9,400 or higher (at least $1,000 more than the average roster spot). Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas are the only two golfers priced in the 11k range at $11,400 and $11,100, respectively. Rory McIlroy ($10,800), Tiger Woods ($10,500), Justin Rose ($10,200), and Brooks Koepka ($10,000) round out the five-figure club. DraftKings gives you $50,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $8,400. As you will read later on, this course can be brutal, and a number of high-profile golfers missed the cut last year. This is one of those weeks in which you will probably love your lineup. There is a lot of value below 9k. If you finish constructing your roster and you do not feel good about it, then you need to start over. Every lineup that you submit should feel like a good lineup this week, which includes even if you try to go contrarian. There will be a number of players that you’ll like that will be low-owned and have the potential to win or finish in the top five.
The PLAYERS Championship (often referred to as the “fifth Major”) has moved to March, which should make an interesting tournament even more interesting. Other than the fact that this is a big-time event, the main thing you should know is that any type of player can win this tournament. This is a versatile course that has a little bit of everything. It also is a course that a player can go really low in a round, but a player can also blow up and have a terrible hole or two and all of a sudden, they miss the cut or are out of contention.
All of the plays that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Realize that golf is the DFS sport that probably has the most variance from week to week. Anyone can miss a cut, and anyone can have a high finish (or even win). Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals. Have a solid process and use all the information available to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.
TOURNAMENT NOTES
There are 144 golfers scheduled to tee it up for The PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP. The top 70 golfers (and ties) make the cut and move on to the weekend. The MDF (secondary cut) is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the first cut.
All of the OWGR Top-50 are scheduled to tee it up this week, though there have been some questions surrounding Jason Day, Tiger Woods, and Phil Mickelson actually playing in the event.
The Pete Dye-designed course is played at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedre Beach, Florida. The course is a Par 72 that measures 7,189 yards. It is a beautiful course that has a number of signature holes, with none more famous than the Par 3 17th island green. There have been more bogeys than birdies at hole number 17.
Water is in play on 17 of the 18 holes.
Past champions scheduled to play this week include Webb Simpson (2018), Si Woo Kim (2017), Jason Day (2016), Rickie Fowler (2015), Martin Kaymer (2014), Tiger Woods (2013, 2001), Matt Kuchar (2012), Henrik Stenson (2009), Sergio Garcia (2008), Phil Mickelson (2007), and Adam Scott (2004). Of these 11 golfers, only Scott and Woods won the event when it was held during the month of March.
Last year, when Webb Simpson became only the eighth wire-to-wire winner, he equaled the course record with a second-round 63. He also tied the 36-hole and 54-hole scoring records at 15-under and 19-under, respectively. He was on cruise control in the final round shooting a 73 and still winning by four strokes.
The average winning score is 12-under par with the average cut line at two-over par. Historically, the scoring average has been roughly one stroke worse when the event has been played in March, as opposed to May.
Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari, Jason Day, and Sergio Garcia are the only golfers to have multiple top-10 finishes within the last five years. Molinari leads the way with three.
Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott, Ian Poulter, and Zach Johnson are the only five golfers to have made the cut in each of the past five years.
Notable golfers that missed the cut last year include Rickie Fowler, Francesco Molinari, Hideki Matsuyama, Phil Mickelson, Louis Oosthuizen, Gary Woodland, and Rory McIlroy.
Only two golfers who finished in the top 10 last year were priced above $8,000. Jason Day at $11,400 (second-highest priced golfer) and Tommy Fleetwood at $8,200.
There have been 28 holes-in-one at TPC Sawgrass during this event. Eight of them have been on the 17th hole. Sergio Garcia is the last one to accomplish this feat when he did it during the opening round of the 2017 tournament.
When Si Woo Kim won in 2017 at the age of 21 years old, he bested Adam Scott’s mark by nearly two years as the youngest golfer in The PLAYERS Championship history.
Kyle Stanley (2017) and Paul Azinger (1987) are the only golfers to birdie the 17th hole in all four rounds of a single tournament.
The 54 balls that found the water on the 17th hole last year was the second-most balls in the water in the last 10 years. 69 in during the 2017 tournament has been the most in the last decade. Aaron Baddeley leads the way with 13 water balls since 2003.
RECENT FORM
Ian Poulter ($7,600)
These three guys listed in the recent form section might as well be in the value section, as well. Poulter’s 23rd-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week broke a string of four straight top-six finishes. He was one of the highest owned DFS golfers last week, so he “disappointed” a number of people with his finish. Despite that “disappointment”, he is still playing some good golf. Overall, he has made 12 straight cuts worldwide. This year on the European Tour, he ranks fifth with a 68.0 scoring average.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($7,400)
He has made 18 cuts in this last 19 worldwide events. During that stretch he has 12 top-10 finishes. He has four straight top-25 finishes, including his third-place finish this past week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He was the first-round leader and really showed some nice form. He ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in total shots gained for the last 24 rounds. He ranks 10th overall on the European Tour this year with a 69.2 scoring average.
Charles Howell III ($7,300)
He is quietly playing some great golf as he has six top-10 finishes in his last eight events. He finished 15th this past week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but that was after shooting a 74 in the first round. In the last 24 rounds, only Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy have gained more total strokes than Chuckie Three-Sticks.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Sergio Garcia ($9,100)
Nobody has more rounds in the 60s than Sergio’s 22. Even though he has made the cut in each of the last five years, he hasn’t performed great the last three years as his best finish is 30th. He did finish second and third in 2015 and 2014, though. Overall, the 2008 champion has made the cut in 17 of his 19 starts, including 15 in a row. He has six top-10 finishes during his career. In the last 24 rounds played at The PLAYERS, nobody has scored more fantasy points than Sergio.
Francesco Molinari ($8,600)
He has a curious history at this event as he has four top-10 finishes and four missed cuts in his eight appearances. Last year he missed the cut after finishing sixth, seventh, and sixth in the three prior starts. In the last 24 rounds played at TPC Sawgrass, only Adam Scott has gained more total strokes on the field. This has nothing to do with tournament history, but he just won the Arnold Palmer with a huge Sunday. We’ve seen him get incredibly hot. If this is the start of a Molinari run, then his past successes at The PLAYERS sets up well for him this week.
Adam Scott ($8,200)
In the last 24 rounds at TPC Sawgrass, nobody has gained more total strokes on the field than Scott. He seems to love this course until he gets on the green. He has been dialed in with his driver and his irons but that flat stick has probably kept him from winning more than just his 2004 title. He has three straight top-15 finishes to go with seven straight made cuts at TPC Sawgrass. He has 21 rounds in the 60s, which is one less than the leader in that category, Sergio Garcia.
COURSE FIT (KEY STATS)
Pete Dye Designed Courses
A Pete Dye course has some unique characteristics and many players seem to do well at the various tracks that he designed. Some of the other courses on the PGA Tour include (TPC Stadium Course at LaQuinta, Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), and TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship) to name just a few. In looking at the last two years, the following players have scored the most fantasy points when playing on a Pete Dye-designed course: Brooks Koepka ($10,000), Webb Simpson ($8,500), Ian Poulter ($7,600), Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($7,400), and Jason Dufner ($6,600).
Double Bogey Avoidance
Normally we might look at just Bogey Avoidance, but this course can chew up a golfer really quick with one or two bad holes. Certainly, scoring is important, but if you want to make the cut and give yourself a chance to be in contention on Sunday, you have to avoid the big numbers. The top five golfers in the last 24 rounds that have avoided double bogeys are Patrick Cantlay ($8,700), Francesco Molinari ($8,600), Hideki Matsuyama ($8,300), Charles Howell III ($7,300), and Lucas Glover ($7,100).
Bermuda Greens
The Bermuda greens are fast and smaller than the average PGA Tour green. Last year 22 of the top 25 finishers gained strokes around the green. If you are looking for someone that might be able to get hot both around the green and on the putting surface itself, we found only five golfers that rank in the Top 25 for Shots Gained: Around the Green (Bermuda) and Shots Gained: Putting on Bermuda during the last 36 rounds. Jason Day ($9,200), Webb Simpson ($8,500), Marc Leishman ($7,600), Branden Grace ($7,400), and Kevin Na ($6,700) are all guys that have shown an ability to make things happen on Bermuda.
FAVORITE STUD
Xander Schauffele ($9,000)
All the best golfers are playing this week, so we have our pick of the litter. Remember that any golfer can win from week to week and any golfer can miss the cut (e.g. last year’s PLAYERS notable cuts, as well as Koepka missing the cut last week after finishing runner-up the week before). As long as DJ is in the top five of the Official World Golf Rankings, he will always be my default stud that I would pick to win. Tiger Woods is my favorite golfer of all time, and I would never bet against him when he is healthy. I think Rory McIlroy is going to win soon as he is coming off six straight top-10 finishes. Koepka can do great things when he is in the mood, but we just don’t always know when he is focused. Sergio Garcia is the only player to make the cut 10 straight times at this event, and he is dialed in right now. This reminds me of two years ago leading up to the Masters. Webb Simpson is my second favorite golfer (behind Tiger), is the defending champion, and his caddie (Paul Tesori) lives here and has played on this course thousands of times (his dad was a starter at TPC Sawgrass). It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Webb put in another strong performance. Molinari won this past week, and we all saw what he did last year when he put an incredible six-week run together that included three wins and two runner-up finishes. Could he be primed for something like that again after lapping the field on Sunday at the API?
With all of that said, I am a huge fan of the X-Man this week. He has made 12 straight cuts worldwide. During that stretch, he has 10 top-25 finishes, four top-10 finishes, and two wins. At the WGC-Mexico (his last event), he finished 14th. He has a tendency to get up for the big events. In the last year, he has finished sixth at the U.S. Open, runner-up at the British Open, seventh at the Tour Championship, Won the WGC-HSBC and won the Tournament of Champions to start this season. Oh yeah, he was runner-up at this event last year. I think he can win it all this year, and he is priced lower than the other studs. But remember that golf has a ton of variance. In a week like this, it might not be a bad idea to just go with the stud that is projected to be the lowest owned (provided that you like him). It is hard to go wrong with any of them and a case can be made for each of them performing well or winning. Going with the lowest-owned golfer provides a little advantage and gives you leverage on the field in GPPs.
FAVORITE VALUE
Gary Woodland ($7,500)
He is the 22nd-highest-priced golfer on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he comes in at 32nd. It is always nice to get a site discount for a golfer that I like. He has the longest current streak on the PGA Tour for consecutive cuts made at 21 events. He had to really scramble the last few holes two weeks ago at the Honda Classic to keep that streak alive. He would finish a disappointing 36th but did keep his streak intact. He has top-10 finishes in six of his last 10 events, including two runner-up finishes. In the last 36 rounds played, only three players have scored more fantasy points. He doesn’t have a great track record at this course having made the cut only three times in his seven tries. His best finish was 11th back in 2014. But he is playing like a different player right now. Other than a couple of atrocious putting performances (one was at the last event he played), he might have pulled out a win recently. Ian Poulter ($7,600) and Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($7,400) are also nice value plays both from a site discount standpoint and from an equity standpoint.
FAVORITE PUNT
Jason Kokrak ($6,700)
He has made 15 straight cuts. That alone is enough to roster him. $6k punt plays don’t make 15 straight cuts. They also don’t finish top 20 in five of the previous six events. He is coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes (10th at the API and ninth at the Honda). In the last 24 rounds, Kokrak is 11th in total strokes gained and 12th in fantasy scoring. All of this has been with a shaky putter. If he can get the flat stick rolling, he could contend on Sunday. Lucas Glover also deserves a mention even though he isn’t in the $6k range. He is still rather cheap at $7,100. In the last 24 rounds, only three golfers have gained more total strokes on the field than Glover. He has only missed one cut in his last nine events. During that stretch, the worst that he has finished is 17th, which was all the way back in October. I also really like the way Keith Mitchell ($6,800) is playing right now and feel that Byeong-Hun An ($6,800) is ready to break through, as well. If you want an absolute bargain basement play, Sung Kang ($6,000) is really interesting coming off his sixth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has four top-20 finishes in his past seven events.
PROCEED WITH CAUTION
Phil Mickelson ($7,900)
He has a win and a runner-up finish in his last six events, but he also has two missed cuts and two finishes outside the top 30. Even though he won The PLAYERS Championship in 2007, he has repeatedly said that his game doesn’t fit the course for some reason. He has missed the cut in four of the last five years. The only cut he made was in 2017 when he finished in 41st-place.
Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.