The Masters is only a week away but FanDuel is still offering a variety of good contests for the Valero Texas Open this week. There are seven golfers priced at $11,000 or above. Rickie Fowler ($12,500) is the highest priced player. Matt Kuchar ($12,100) and Tony Finau ($12,000) are the next highest priced golfers. Jordan Spieth ($11,700), Jason Kokrak ($11,200), Sungjae Im ($11,100), and Billy Horschel ($11,000) round out the five-digit club. FanDuel gives you $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000.
Remember that just like real-life golf, DFS golf can be frustrating and fun all at the same time. Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind.
All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals.
Have a solid process and use all the information available to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
The Valero Texas Open is played on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. The Par 72 course measures 7,522 (according to the Valero website). Sergio Garcia consulted on this Greg Norman-designed course, which was ranked as the 12th most difficult course on the PGA Tour last year.
This is a larger field than normal with 156 players scheduled to tee off. The top 72 (and ties) will make the cut and advance to the weekend.
Previous winners of the Valero Texas Open that are in the field this week include Andrew Landry (2018), Charley Hoffman (2016), Jimmy Walker (2015), Martin Laird (2013), and Brendan Steele (2011).
Last year, only three golfers priced above the average roster spot ($10,000) placed in the event’s top 20. Ryan Moore was the only golfer to finish in the top 10. Kevin Chappell and Brandt Snedeker finished in the top 15.
The average winning score has been 13-under par and the cut line has averaged 1-over par.
Andrew Landry’s score of 17-under par last year was the best score in the last decade. Trey Mullinax set the course record when he shot a 62 in the third round last year on his way to a second-place finish.
This is one of the weaker fields of the year as there are only three players ranked in the top 30 of the Official World Golf Rankings. Rickie Fowler is the eighth-ranked player, Tony Finau is ranked 15th and Matt Kuchar is ranked 16th. Jordan Spieth is probably the biggest name in the field, but he is only ranked 32nd in the world as he has had a rough year and a half.
The Masters field is pretty much set for next week but if a player wins the Valero then they get in (if they aren’t already in the field). Ian Poulter and Russell Henley won the Houston Shell Open each of the last two years to earn themselves an invite to Augusta. The PGA schedule changed this year and the Valero (not the Shell Open) is now the tournament played the week prior to the Masters. If you are looking for players with a little extra motivation to do well, Jim Furyk (52), Byeong Hun An (54), Andrew Putnam (55), Sungjae Im (57), and Abraham Ancer (58) are the highest ranked players (according to the OWGR) in the field who do not have a spot in next week’s Masters field. Graeme McDowell won last week but opposite field events do not get automatic invites into the Masters so he will look to ride the winning momentum into back-to-back victories and get himself into next week’s field.
RECENT FORM
Sungjae Im ($11,100)
Last year’s Web.com darling has really had quite an interesting 2019 so far with six top-16 finishes. His finished seventh after a poor Sunday this past week. This gave him his third top-seven finish in his last four tournaments. His only hiccup during that time was a missed cut at The PLAYERS Championship, but a lot of other high-level players also missed the cut at TPC Sawgrass.
Billy Horschel ($11,000)
If not for being sick and having to withdraw from the Dell Technologies Championship back in September, he’d have the PGA’s longest current consecutive cut streak. That withdrawal was sandwiched between two third-place finishes so it wasn’t a case of playing bad. He was legitimately sick. Taking that out of the equation, he has gone 18 straight events without missing a cut. During that stretch, he has six top-11 finishes. He played well at the WGC-Dell Match Play but was in a very tough bracket. The week before that, he finished T26 at The PLAYERS Championship. In the last 24 rounds, he is second in this field for fantasy scoring. I will take a guy making every cut that is also giving us fantasy production.
Jim Furyk ($10,900)
Of all the players in this field, nobody has gained more total strokes than Furyk. He seems to have found the fountain of youth. Seven top-20 finishes in his last 10 events, including a runner-up to Rory McIlroy at The PLAYERS Championship. His worst finish in the 2019 season is a T37 back in February at the Genesis Open. He is also coming off a strong performance at the WGC-Dell Match Play.
Byeong-Hun An ($10,200)
Leads the entire PGA Tour with 18 consecutive made cuts (he did miss a Euro Tour cut back in October). If he could just putt decently, he’d be a superstar. The putting has kept him from having high finishes. During his streak, his best finish has been a runner-up at the RBC Canadian but that was back in July. Since then, his best finish has been 10th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The numbers say that he is pretty safe to make the cut. He’s been playing well for a while now. He just struggles with the flat stick.
Jonathan Byrd ($9,000)
Has made the cut in nine straight PGA Tour events. He has four top-25 finishes in his last five events, including a fourth-place finish this past week at the Corales Open.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Charley Hoffman ($9,900)
He has never missed a cut at this event in his 13 starts. He has struggled a little bit the last couple of years since winning in 2016. He has an amazing history of 10 top-15 finishes in his 13 years.
Jimmy Walker ($9,700)
He has finished in the top 16 in four of his last five starts at this event. He did miss the cut in 2016 as the defending champion but rebounded the next two years to finish T13 and fourth last year. He leads the field in total strokes gained over the course of the last five years.
Aaron Baddeley ($9,600)
After missing the cut in his first Valero Open way back in 2000, Baddeley has made 10 straight cuts. He has had four top-15 finishes. He finished fifth in 2017 and 16th last year. In the last five years, only Jimmy Walker, Charley Hoffman, and Ryan Palmer have gained more total strokes on the field than Baddeley.
Joaquin Niemann ($9,600)
I don’t normally mention guys that have only played the tournament one time. That is not a big enough sample size for course history. But I wanted to mention Niemann somewhere in the article. He has struggled this year but is really talented. He was owned by a lot of people last week but missed the cut. Why does any of this matter in the course history section? Because this was the tournament where he made his professional debut last year and won over our hearts with a sixth-place finish. Maybe he will be able to capture some of that magic again this week. I will continue to play him because he has the ability to win a weaker-field event. Maybe it will be this week at the place that it all started for him last year.
COURSE FIT (KEY STATS)
Windy Conditions
Texas courses tend to be affected by the wind. The Valero has had some issues in the recent past with the wind affecting the players and particular tee time waves. Regardless of what wave a golfer plays in, if they are a good wind player then they might be able to gain a slight advantage on the field. Rickie Fowler ($12,500), Matt Kuchar ($12,100), Jim Furyk ($10,900), Luke List ($10,500), Daniel Berger ($9,800), Ryan Palmer ($9,800), and Kelly Kraft ($8,400) are players that have rated out the best for playing in windy conditions over the last 24 rounds.
Long Par-3s
There are four Par 3 holes that average an incredible 220 yards. We usually think of Par 5 scoring being a barometer of success but when the Par 3s are this long, being able to differentiate yourself on them can be invaluable. Last year, Andrew Landry did exceptionally well on these long Par 3s, which helped lead him to victory. For the week, he played all the Par 3s at under par. In the last 24 rounds Jason Kokrak ($11,200), Charley Hoffman ($9,900), Daniel Berger ($9,800), Martin Kaymer ($8,800), Kelly Kraft ($8,400), and Tyler Duncan ($7,000) have done the best on Par 3s from a distance of 200-225 yards. This doesn’t mean that they will contend on Sunday, but they have shown an ability to play this distance well, which could be crucial this week.
Green in Regulation & Approach Game
This course is more difficult when it comes to hitting greens in regulation (as compared to the tour average). There is a combination of factors involved including the wind. Besides the wind, this tends to be a second-shot course. There are specific angles and paths that are better than others to approach the green. Many of the approaches are going to be from 175-225 yards. There are five players that rank in the top 20 in both GIR and SG: Approach (175-200) in the last 24 rounds. Matt Kuchar ($12,100), Jason Kokrak ($11,200), Ryan Palmer ($9,800), and Sepp Straka ($8,100) have the type of approach game that could prove useful at Valero.
FAVORITE STUD
Jason Kokrak ($11,200)
I plan on going light on most of the top guys this week. I don’t know where they are mentally with the Masters coming up and don’t want to pay up for this uncertainty. I am going to go with a guy that is hungry and that there is no chance he is looking ahead to Augusta. Kokrak certainly isn’t a “stud” in the traditional sense of the word, nor in golf lingo for that matter, but he is trending toward winning a tournament. Over the last 24 rounds, only Jim Furyk has gained more total strokes than Kokrak. He is first in SG: Ball-Striking, SG: Tee-to-Green, and SG: Approach. Those stats give you a pretty good indication that he is hitting the ball very well right now. He hasn’t missed a cut since last July’s Open Championship. In the 17 events since, he has nine top-20 finishes. Just as telling is that he has three top-10 finishes in his last four tournaments, including a runner-up at his last even (Valspar). He has also done all of this while struggling with the flat stick. Sure, in a vacuum, the guys priced ahead of him are possibly more talented, but I think Kokrak is close to winning a tournament and to get him at a discounted price compared to the rest of the field, I’ll take it. He is probably playing his best golf of his PGA career right now but his course history here is not too shabby, which also leads me to believe that he can put it together this week (especially at his price). In the last five years, he has made the cut four times. Please make sure that you read Corwin Parker’s power rankings to get more information about the top players in this field.
FAVORITE CORE PLAYS
Haotong Li ($10,000)
He appears to be one of the better value plays this week as he is the 16th highest-priced player in the field but he is the fifth-best player in the field (according to the OWGR). Li is ranked 38th in the world. He has struggled a little bit on the PGA Tour in recent weeks as he missed the cut at both The PLAYERS Championship and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Those have been hiccups in what has been a strong stretch of golf. Li has a run of nine top-12 finishes in his last 14 events, including a nice showing at last week’s WGC-Dell Match Play. He has also played well in windy conditions on the European Tour (this and other Texas courses can be susceptible to windy conditions).
Joost Luiten ($9,700)
Seven top-25 finishes in his last nine events equal consistency. We don’t know much about Luiten because he primarily plays on the European Tour. He is fourth on the Euro Tour in SG: Approach and 10th in Euro Tour scoring average. In his last five events, he has four top-12 finishes, including a T10 at the WGC-Mexico Championship against the best that PGA Tour has to offer.
FAVORITE VALUE PLAY
Ryan Moore ($10,100)
This is a site discount and course history play. Moore has not exactly been lighting it up in 2019 but has more talent than a lot of the other players and has experienced a good deal of recent success at this event. He finished seventh last year and 18th in 2017. Yes, I know. He just missed the cut at Valspar, which brought his total to three missed cuts in the 2019 calendar year. He was not spectacular prior to his Valspar MC but did have three straight tournaments in which he finished in the top 35. He also had a runner-up performance back in October at the Safeway, so he has it in him to put together high finishes. Maybe he will get a little bit of his mojo back this week at a course that he likes. I wouldn’t go crazy and lock him but realize that you are getting a talented player at a slight site discount. He is priced well above the average roster spot over on DK where he is $9,100.
FAVORITE PUNT PLAY
Justin Harding ($7,000)
This is possibly the easiest punt play recommendation of the year. It is unusual to find a golfer that is this significantly lower-priced on FD than DK but that is what we have with Harding as he is priced at $7,700 on DraftKings. He is not a household name but has been playing well lately. Getting him at the minimum price on FanDuel is a steal. I won’t say he is a free square, but you will definitely want to be overweight on him. Harding just put together a solid showing at the WGC-Dell Match Play. Immediately preceding that event, he had a runner-up performance and a win internationally. He has missed only two cuts in his last 10 events. His worst finish has been 26th. Overall, he has five top-seven finishes. Other cheap plays that I will be considering are Harold Varner ($8,300), Sam Ryder ($8,100), D.J. Trahan ($8,000), and Adam Schenk ($7,900).
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
