The next major is right around the corner and FanDuel already has their prices up on the site for those of us that can’t wait. Before we get to select Tiger’s name, we have to get through the AT&T Byron Nelson. This is not a great field and we are probably destined for our third straight unknown winning (C.T. Pan and Max Homa the last two events). Whether or not the event is good or bad, we still get DFS and that means somebody has to win so why not it be one of us? FanDuel has a variety of decent contests this week ranging from $0.60 GPPs to single entries to their $9.99 contest with a $25,000 first place prize. There are five golfers priced at $11,000 or above (down from nine last week at the Wells Fargo). Brooks Koepka is the clear alpha with a $12,600 price tag. Hideki Matsuyama is the next most expensive golfer, but he is still more than $1,000 cheaper than Koepka at $11,500. Jordan Spieth ($11,200), Patrick Reed ($11,100), and Henrik Stenson ($11,000) round out the top five, in terms of salary. FanDuel provides you with $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000.
All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will be considering for my own lineups. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. Additional news, research, and roster construction may lead me to different plays. Remember to check the news and social media reports leading up to the first golfer teeing off. Though golf is more difficult to get injury news, you might be able to pick up a nugget or two that helps with roster construction – especially when dealing with possible withdrawals.
Remember that just like real-life golf, DFS golf can be frustrating and fun all at the same time. DFS Golf is really hard. Work at having a solid process week in and week out as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Have a solid process and use all the information available to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.
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TOURNAMENT NOTES
The AT&T Byron Nelson is played at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas. The course is only three years old. Quail Hollow in Charlotte, NC. The course is a Par 71 and measures nearly 7,400 yards. The greens are Bermuda, slow, and ultra-huge.
156 players are scheduled to tee it up with the top 70 (and ties) making the cut and playing on the weekend.
Tony Romo and Jordan Spieth are notable members of Trinity Forest GC.
Last year was the first year that Trinity Forest hosted the Byron Nelson Classic, which is one of just two PGA events named after a golfer (Arnold Palmer Invitational is the other one).
The Dallas-Fort Worth area is the only metropolitan area that hosts more than one PGA Tour stop.
This won’t help you this week in DFS but you may find it interesting that Tiger Woods’ record streak of 142 cuts made ended at the Byron Nelson Classic in 2005. Related to that, Matt Kuchar’s tour-leading streak of 30 made cuts last year ended at Trinity Forest. He was vocal about his displeasure for the course and did not return this year.
Trinity Forest has the look of a European links course, but it doesn’t necessarily play like one. It is wide open with no trees or water coming into play on the course. The fairways are wide and there is little to no rough throughout the course.
Aaron Wise, last year’s winner, hit 49 of 56 fairways. The rest of the field wasn’t too far behind as nearly 80% of the drives found the fairway last year.
Trinity Forest surrendered the highest GIR rate on the PGA Tour last year with a 77% GIR percentage.
Previous winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson that are in the field this week include Aaron Wise (2018), Brendon Todd (2014), Rory Sabbatini (2009), and Ernie Els (1995). Remember that only Aaron Wise from last year was the only champion that prevailed at Trinity Forest.
Last year’s 69.4 scoring average was the second-lowest scoring average of all of the PGA Tour’s Par 71 courses.
Fourteen golfers shot in the 60s for all four rounds last year. Aaron Wise’s 23-under par set the tournament record.
The cut line was 4-under par last year.
Last week’s Wells Fargo Championship was top heavy with a number of the world’s best playing (and playing well, as it turned out). That is not the case this week as Brooks Kopeka (3) and Patrick Reed (19) are the only two golfers in the OWGR’s top 20 that are teeing it up this week at the Byron Nelson. However, the overall field is stronger this year than last year. Last year, only five of the world’s best 50 players showed up but this year, 14 will tee it up.
Tony Romo, the former Dallas Cowboys quarterback and current CBS announcer, may be the most famous golfer in the field with Texas ties. However, other notable Texans competing this week include Jordan Spieth, Ryan Palmer, Beau Hossler, Doug Ghim, Dylan Frittelli, Kelly Kraft, Patrick Reed, Ollie Schniederjans, Shawn Stefani, Johnson Wagner, and Jimmy Walker.
COURSE FIT (Key Statistics)
Second Shot Ability
Four of the top five golfers last year in terms of SG: Approach ended up finishing in the top 10 on the leader board. Nearly 80% of fairways were hit last year, as well as nearly 80% of greens were hit in regulation. This becomes a second shot golf course. Even though most players hit the fairway and greens thus leading to somewhat of a putting contest, it is still important to target golfers that are better than the others at getting the ball close. The following eight golfers are ranked in the top 10 in both SG: Approach and Proximity of 175-225 yards: Hideki Matsuyama, Marc Leishman, Trey Mullinax, Henrik Stenson, Russell Knox, Brian Stuard, Nate Lashley, Scottie Scheffler, Ryan Palmer, and Thomas Pieters.
Putting
The greens are huge and undulating. Last year there were significantly more three-putts at this event than at a normal tour event. The best 10 golfers (in ranked order) when it comes to my custom putting model for three-putt avoidance and Shots Gained: Putting (Bermuda and non-Bermuda mix) are Sam Burns, Peter Malnati, Dominic Bozzelli, Denny McCarthy, Wyndham Clark, Brian Stuard, Vaughn Taylor, Pat Perez, Michael Thompson, and Harris English.
Birdie or Better Percentage
This is one of the longest courses on tour but it still is very scoring-friendly. If a golfer is going to contend then they must be able to score. In the last 24 rounds, the 10 golfers that have the best birdie or better percentage on courses longer than 7,400 yards include (in rank order) Brooks Koepka, Ryan Palmer, Keith Mitchell, Aaron Wise, Rory Sabbatini, Matt Every, Ryan Moore, Wyndham Clark, Martin Trainer, and D.J. Trahan.
TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Marc Leishman ($10,800)
Leishman has an interesting history at the Byron Nelson. He has played here 10 times and missed the cut three times, including back-to-back in 2015 and 2016. That is a little concerning, however, all seven times that he has made the cut, he finished no worse than T13. He has three top-three finishes in those seven made cuts, including a runner-up last year to Aaron Wise. Only Jimmy Walker has gained more total strokes on the field in the last five years than has Leishman. His second last year is even more important because it was the first time the tournament was played at Trinity Forest. He had the lead (or a share of the lead) at the conclusion of each of the first three days.
Aaron Wise ($10,900)
In the only time that the Byron Nelson has been played at Trinity Forest, Wise took it down. Technically he has the best course history because he’s been the only winner here.
Charles Howell III ($10,400)
He has three top-10 finishes in his last four Byron Nelson starts. He did miss the cut in 2015 but that was sandwiched between a T4 and T3. Last year, he finished T9. He has made the cut in eight of his last nine Byron Nelson starts.
RECENT FORM
Rory Sabbatini ($10,100)
His top-20 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship gave him his seventh straight made cut. He doesn’t have a lot of upside as a T10 at the RBC Heritage has been his best finish during that stretch, but you have the like the consistency out of a guy that tends to be streaky.
Scott Piercy ($9,800)
After missing the cut at the Safeway Open to begin the Fall Swing, Piercy has played the weekend in 13 of his 14 starts. He has five top-10 finishes during that stretch, including a T3 in his last tournament (RBC Heritage).
Nick Taylor ($8,500)
He has made 9 straight cuts on the PGA Tour (tops in the field after Matsuyama’s 19). He hasn’t displayed a lot of upside during the streak, but he has been consistent. Even though he doesn’t have high finishes, ironically, his best finish was a T16 at The PLAYERS against one of the best fields on the PGA Tour.
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Brooks Koepka ($12,600)
First off, Brooks Koepka should probably be in your lineup. This is a bad field and he is the clear best player. This isn’t like last week when Rory McIlroy was the heavy favorite, but you could see four or five other guys winning since eight of the top 20 in the world’s rankings were in the field. This week it is Brooks and then everyone else. I don’t personally think he is going to win (that will probably be some unknown that shoots a 60 on one of the days. I am not even sure that Brooks will be great this week, but I don’t plan on fading him. I don’t need to give you stats or results. You know Brooks is a stud and at any point can do Brooks-type things. It’s not like there are a bunch of other guys that I am confident in and I can pay down for. Even if you fade Brooks, what six guys will you feel good about? The answer is you won’t! I don’t like playing the favorite, but I also don’t want to be a hero and try to be smarter than everyone else. I am going to take Brooks and hope that he gets his calendar wrong and thinks it is next week during the PGA Championship.
Sungjae Im ($10,600)
Hideki Matsuyama rates out as the best in my customized stat model but Sungjae Im is third. For $1,400 less, I will go ahead and roll with Im. Don’t get me wrong, in a vacuum, I like Matsuyama better, but I may be growing impatient that he can’t put four rounds together. At his price point, he needs to either win or become more consistent for four rounds. Nobody on the PGA tour has more than his 302 birdies or better scoring holes. Nobody on the PGA Tour has more rounds in the 60s this year. Granted, he has played more than anyone else, but it still is a testament to his ability to go low. Aaron Wise went 23-under last year and I see another scoring fest. Im is as good as it gets when it comes to scoring. He is not a safe option (especially at this price point), but he has good win equity. In the last 24 rounds, Im ranks first in total shots gained and fifth in fantasy scoring. Overall, he has made the cut in 14 of his 20 events during the 2018-19 season. He has five top-10 finishes this year.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello ($10,500)
In the last 36 rounds, he is third in the field in both total strokes gained and fantasy scoring. His only real weakness is his around-the-green game but that is not really an issue this week. He should hit green after green in regulation. I would like to see him show up on more leader boards on Sundays, but he is very consistent. He has played the weekend in 22 of his last 24 worldwide starts. The only hiccup on the PGA Tour was at The PLAYERS, which always causes carnage to many of the top players. His best finish in 2019 was a T3 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He ranks fifth in my customized stat model.
Ryan Moore ($10,300)
Moore rates out really well in my customized stat model as only Matsuyama ranks ahead of him. He has made nine of 13 cuts this season, though things are starting to look up for him. He has made the cut in five of his last six events, including a top-20 finish at The PLAYERS and a T3 at the Valero Texas Open. In the last 24 rounds, he has gained the sixth most total strokes in the field. He is eight in my customized stat model.
Keith Mitchell ($10,200)
It is hard to win on the PGA Tour. It is even harder to win twice in the same season but that is what Keith Mitchell could do this week. The field is weak, and the course suits his game. He can grip it and rip it without too much fear. He also likes playing on Bermuda greens. In fact, in the last 36 rounds played on Bermuda, nobody has scored more fantasy points in this field than Mitchell. He has three top-10 finishes in his last six events, including a win at the Honda Classic. He followed that up with an impressive T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He is coming off a respectable T8 at the Wells Fargo last week. Overall, he is first in SG: OTT, second in ball striking, and fourth from tee-go-green in the last 24 rounds played. Last year he finished T3 here at Trinity Forest. Overall, he has made six of his last seven cuts. Mitchell is 10th in my customized stat model.
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Ryan Palmer ($9,700)
Admittedly, he has only made the cut in three of his last six events. Fortunately, one of those was a win at the Zurich Classic. He also finished T4 at the Honda. Unfortunately, he missed the cut here last year, but he is coming off a win with renewed confidence. There is no water on the course so he should be okay. In the last 24 rounds, he is first in the field when it comes to fantasy scoring.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,600)
Scheffler has four straight top-seven finishes on the Web.com Tour, including a playoff loss this past weekend. It may be a bit of a stretch to say that he could do well this week but why not him? This course is set up for low scores and that is precisely what the Web.com Tour serves up on a consistent basis. He is also a local Dallas boy that played at the University of Texas. He helped the U.S. team win the 2017 Walker Cup. He finished T27 at the 2017 U.S. Open to win the low amateur honors (besting Cameron Champ for that honor). He finished T22 at the 2014 Byron Nelson. Recently he had a top-20 finish at the Valero Texas Open. Overall, he has made the cut in five of his eight PGA starts, including three in a row. He is fifth on the Web.com in scoring average and nobody has shot more rounds in the 60’s this year than Scheffler.
Kevin Tway ($9,000)
I have been waiting for Tway to show me something and he finally flashed a little glimmer of hope with his T36 at Augusta. That isn’t anything special except that he had missed six straight cuts prior to that. He finished T9 here last year. He definitely has the length for this course, and he has shown an ability to avoid three-putts, which is needed at this course. Last year, he had a streak of 300+ holes played without a three-putt. His stats will not pop off the page as he has had a terrible 2019 since finishing T11 at the Tournament of Champions in early January. Remember that going into the TOC, he had made 11 straight cuts, including getting a win at the Safeway Open. As you can see, there are some reasons why Tway could have a big week. Most projections won’t say that but there is some life still to his game. This upside play is purely a gut hunch based upon his skill set and my personal biases toward Tway.
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Matt Jones ($8,900)
He finished T13 here last year and comes into this week on a streak of 9 made cuts. Only Matsuyama has more consecutive cuts than Jones does when it comes to players entered into this event. However, none of the made cuts have resulted in a top-10 finish yet. He is a consistent player. He doesn’t do anything great but has no real weaknesses. In the last 36 rounds played, he ranks ninth in total shots gained and 13th in fantasy scoring. I like the fact that he is a cut maker and fared well at Trinity Forest last year.
Brian Stuard ($8,800)
He has made the cut in nine of his last 11 events. In his last six events, he has two missed cuts but has finished in the top 20 in the four events he has made the cut. In this last trip to Texas a couple weeks ago, he finished T4 at the Valero. He made the cut at last year’s Byron Nelson. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks 11th in the field for total strokes gained. In the two stats that could be important this week, he ranks sixth in both my customized putting and second shot models. Overall, he is ninth in my overall customized stat model.
Wyndham Clark ($8,500)
He should be able to buy-low on Clark after he disappointed a bunch of people last week as a bargain chalk option. He had a streak of eight straight cuts until Wells Fargo. He had been putting great and the flat stick let him down. If he can regain that magic, he has a chance to make some noise this week. He finished T20 at the Valero Texas Open a few weeks ago. In the last 24 rounds played, nobody in the field has a better birdie or better percentage than does Clark and this course is a scoring course.
Adam Schenk ($8,500)
Last week I fell victim to recency bias with Schenk. I have been playing him a bunch this year but he missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and so I cooled on him a bit last week. He ended up finishing T13 at a bargain price. I am going to jump back on him this week (more recency bias, I guess). He recently finished T7 at the Valero Texas Open. Overall, he has made 14 of 19 cuts in the 2019-19 season. He certainly isn’t safe but has shown an ability to return quite a nice value at this price point. In the last 24 rounds, he is fourth in the field for total strokes gained. He is 17th in fantasy scoring during that same time frame. He doesn’t do anything great statistically but has a solid overall game coming in fourth in my customized stat model.
Hank Lebioda ($8,100)
The rookie has made six straight cuts on the PGA Tour. Outside of partnering with Curtis Luck and finishing T5 at the Zurich Classic, his best finish has been a T17 at the Valero Texas Open. That was only three events ago for Lebioda and it was in Texas. He should have confidence going into this week. Even though he may not consistently finish high in the standings, he is consistently outscoring his finishing position. In the last 36 rounds, he is ninth in fantasy scoring.
Nate Lashley ($7,800)
He ranks 18th in my custom stat model, which caught my attention when I saw how cheap he is. Certainly, guys priced this low are there for a reason, but Lashley makes for an interesting punt play. In the last 36 rounds, he ranks 11th in total strokes gained. Since last year’s T32 at the Byron Nelson, he has had 10 PGA starts and made the cut in eight of those events.
Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and is a leadership trainer, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommends.
