There are many things that factor into your fantasy football decisions, though one of the things many fantasy footballers tend to overlook is changes to the coaching staff. While some do understand that those changes matter, they don’t know how to factor that into their decisions come draft day.

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While there isn’t one metric or statistic that’ll help you win your fantasy league, there are many things that should factor into your decisions, even if it’s to give you a one-percent edge on your competition. When you continually do those things, the one percent quickly becomes five percent, and sometimes more. That’s what’ll make the difference between you and the guy who misses the playoffs.

There has been a lot of movement among coaches this offseason, so we’re going to talk about what it means when there’s been a complete overhaul with a team’s coaching staff, a simple replacement of an offensive coordinator, or if there was nothing at all. What is the best-case scenario for that team’s fantasy players? Well, it depends on what position they play. Let’s take a look at the trends over the last five years to see if we can find an edge.

Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator Change

If there’s one thing we know shakes the boat, it’s a head coaching change. But is that a good thing for the offense? If so, what positions typically benefit?

Of the 34 teams who’ve hired a new head coach over the last five years, 24 of them finished with fewer pass attempts. While you may be thinking, “Well, that still leaves 10 teams to throw the ball more,” only seven teams increased their pass attempts by more than five. That means just 20.6 percent of new head coaches will lead to increased pass attempts in year one. And even then, there were just three teams (8.8 percent) who increased their pass attempts by 42 or more, while there were 11 teams who decreased their pass attempts by 52 or more.

On average, teams led by a new head coach average 24.4 fewer pass attempts than the prior year. While it may not seem like much, a full target-and-a-half per game are gone from the pass-catchers.

Naturally, when you see the pass attempts decline, you’d expect an increase in rush attempts, yes? Well, that’s actually balanced, as we saw 17 teams increase their rush attempts, and 17 decrease them. However, when rushing attempts are cut, it’s not nearly as significant. There was just one team who decreased their rushing attempts by more than 71, while there were eight teams who increased their rushing attempts by at least 114. Because of that, teams with a new head coach have averaged 13.9 more carries per game.

In the end, it’s typically better for the running backs when there’s a head coaching change, as they’ll get more opportunity. The teams who have hired a new head coach obviously hope to see their offense become more efficient, and as a quarterback, you will need to with the decrease in pass attempts. This will leak down into the wide receivers and tight ends as well, though it’s not as significant as the quarterback. Here are the teams who underwent a head coaching change heading into 2019: Cardinals, Bengals, Browns, Broncos, Packers, Dolphins, Jets, and Buccaneers. With the 20.6 percent rule in effect, it’s likely that just one or two of these teams increase their pass attempts in 2019, with my vote going towards the Cardinals and maybe the Bengals.

Offensive Coordinator Only Change

We now know that head coaching changes mean a bit less passing and likely a rise in rushing attempts, but what about when they replace the guy actually calling plays for the offense? There have been 37 instances where the head coach stayed intact, while they brought in a new offensive coordinator. There were just 17 teams who decreased their pass attempts, which is a much better outcome for quarterbacks than getting a new head coach. Oddly enough, just 13 teams ran more plays under their new offensive coordinator.

There were just two teams who saw a 100-plus pass attempt increase, but there were also just three teams who saw a 100-plus decrease in pass attempts. There were eight teams who threw the ball 600-plus times under a first-year offensive coordinator, which is a relatively high 21.6 percent. That means you’re more likely to get 600-plus attempts out of a quarterback with a new offensive coordinator than you are to get any increase in pass attempts from a quarterback with a new head coach. Crazy, right?

The change in coordinator hasn’t very generous to running backs, as just six teams increased their rushing attempts more than 23 of them, while there were nine teams who decreased by at least 64 rushing attempts. Overall, teams with a new offensive coordinator averaged 8.2 fewer carries per season. This isn’t anything that’ll make you cringe when drafting a running back, but understand that it’s pretty rare he’ll see a dramatic increase in carries.

When a team swaps offensive coordinators, it shouldn’t sway you too much one way or another, particularly with the quarterback and pass-catchers. The long list of teams who held onto their head coaches but replaced the offensive coordinator heading into 2019 include the Falcons, Ravens, Cowboys, Lions, Texans (though Bill O’Brien calls the plays), Jaguars, Vikings, Titans, and Redskins.

No Coaching Change

There are definitely some positives from no coaching change, as the players are not needed to learn a new offensive system or a new way of doing things in general. There’s something to be said for familiarity, as there have been just two teams who’ve not had a new head coach or offensive coordinator over the last five years, and those teams – Patriots and Saints – just happen to be two of the best in the NFL.

Of the 89 teams who kept everything status quo with the coaching staff, 50 of them increased their pass attempts the following year, with five teams increasing by more than 100 pass attempts, while just two teams decreased by more than 100 attempts (2017 Saints, 2017 Ravens). There’s definitely more appeal in quarterbacks who remain in the same offense, as they have time to perfect the playbook.

Just 39 teams increased their rushing attempts under the same coaching staff, though none of them increased by more than 96 rush attempts, while there were four teams who decreased by at least 107 rushing attempts. This just highlights that it’s typically rare for a team to dramatically fall-backward on the pass and run the ball more while under the same coaching umbrella, eliminating some of the upside you get when there is a coaching change.

As you’d expect with no change on the coaching staff, 40 teams ran more plays, 48 teams ran less plays, while one team ran the exact same amount of plays. It’s essentially a mixed-bag depending on what type of coach you have, as defensive-minded coaches would like to slow the pace down, while offensive-minded coaches want to put up as many points as possible, as fast as they can. In general, no changes to the coaching staff should allow for the most accurate projections because we know what they want to do and how they’ve done it before.

What We Learned

As mentioned at the top of this article, there’s no one secret formula/metric that’s going to help you win a fantasy football championship, but there are going to be certain pieces of information that will give you an edge. This is one of those things that gives you that little bit more information than your competitors. Coaching changes do matter, and to recap what they mean, here’s the chart:

The biggest takeaway is to be a bit more cautious with quarterbacks and their pass-catchers who’ll be playing under a new head coach, as they typically see the biggest volume drop-off. There are going to be one or two teams who’ll go against that mold, but remember the 20 percent rule. On the flipside, aim for running backs who’ll be playing under a new head coach, as there’s typically more volume to go around. The 13.9 carries per season may not seem like much, but when you factor in the 9.8-carry loss that running backs with no coaching change average, that’s a 23.7-carry swing.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.