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Fantasy football wins above replacement (WAR) is a tool that not only shows how many more wins above replacement a player gave fantasy teams, but also the exact selection in the draft every player ended up being worth for a given year. It also allows us to visualize the hierarchy of each position when it comes to wins for your fantasy team.
WAR doesn’t predict a specific player’s future, but after looking back at results for the last four years, trends in each position’s WAR standings begin to emerge. I’m breaking down all five fantasy positions to identify these trends. This will give you a starting point for your draft evaluations on consensus number ones at each position such as Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chicago DST, and Greg Zuerlein.
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Running Backs
Above are all running back WAR results for the first five rounds of the last four years. The picks are in sequential order from left to right with running back highlighted blue and all other positions grayed out.
2015 may have been a comparatively down year for running backs, but after catching more passes than Todd Gurley in any year, Devonta Freeman was the pass-catching leak in the running back dam taking home the 2015 fantasy MVP.
Everyone knows workhorse pass-catching running backs are important, but looking at first-round results over the past four years reveals that owning such running backs are trending towards downright essential. Any draft strategy that does not revolve around trying to get these guys as soon as possible is flat wrong. It’s hard to imagine 2019 being any different. So, if you thought about being cute and taking a wide receiver with a top or even middle-round pick in the first, don’t.
Wide Receivers
The past four years of WAR suggest a slight downtrend to wide receiver impact. I’m not sure 2019 will be the year they get completely pushed out of the first round, but there seems to be a growing gap between running back and wide receiver fantasy impact. Even Antonio Brown’s fantasy “MVP” year of 2015 that garnered his 2016 No. 1 ADP was only the worth the fifth-overall pick.
Quarterbacks
This is where things start to get a little more interesting. You probably wouldn’t have expected a quarterback being worth a first-round fantasy pick each of the last four years. Counter to most expert opinions on quarterbacks, a considerable gap in WAR exists between the top one or two and the field. There’s no reason to expect this won’t happen again in 2019. The hard part is figuring out who it will be. Look back at the graph again. Each of the four first-round worthy QBs are nowhere to be found in the first five rounds of WAR the following year. Not one. This is exactly why analysts throw up their hands and say wait on drafting QBs.
Even so, if we now know a quarterback will likely end up being worth a first-round pick in 2019, it’s hard to imagine it being anyone other than Pat Mahomes. Nothing considerable has changed about his team’s situation making the only thing working against him being regression on what we’d assume was, for him, an above-average year.
WAR trends tell you a quarterback worth a first is not an anomaly. But a player repeating this feat would be. If someone takes Mahomes in the first round this year, let it happen. You get to decide how much regression to expect from there. Taking him in any round after is fair game.
Tight Ends
The past four years show top-tier tight ends can be every bit worth a first-round pick. The impact Rob Gronkowski had at the position from 2015 – 2016 is simply mind-boggling, as he was worth the overall No. 2 in 2015, No. 12 in 2016 and No. 5 in 2017. If you think Travis Kelce is about to go full Gronk-mode in 2019, historical precedence is on your side. Considering the dearth at TE, if Kelce ends up giving his fantasy teams more wins above replacement than any other player in the NFL in 2019, don’t be surprised. Once the surefire workhorse, pass-catching running backs are picked over, he’s fair game in late Round 1.
DSTs
The only relevant DST worth focusing on is the Chicago Bears, worth almost three full rounds ahead of the runner-up Los Angeles Rams. This visual above doesn’t quite pay their dominance justice. The following graph shows their 2018 WAR was more than twice that of the Rams and in a league of their own compared to the rest of the NFL:
As impressive as the Bears were, the past four years’ of WAR results show that a DST worthy of a second-round pick is typical. Of course, this doesn’t mean it’s been easy to predict who the next second-round DST is going to be. The Jaguars reminded us of this last year. Even though they were worth a high second-round pick in 2017, the ADP consensus No. 1 DST ended up performing around replacement-level in 2018.
Despite this, there’s reason to believe breaking suit and taking a DST on draft day won’t leave you twice fooled. Unlike the 2018 Jaguars, the Bears come into 2019 remarkably healthy and without much turnover from the prior year. The same could be said of the 2016 Kansas City Chiefs who held on to 10 of their 11 defensive starters from 2015. Look back at the Chiefs DST WAR results for 2015 – 2016. The 2016 unit maintained their worthiness of a second-round pick. With nine defensive starters returning this year, this gives a reason to bullish on the Bears DST. Don’t be afraid to pounce multiple rounds above their ADP. Once the Bears DST is selected, you may as well go into hibernation.
Kickers
Much like the Chicago Bears, Greg Zuerlein is the only kicker worth analyzing after reviewing kicker WAR history. Kicker consistency is brutally chaotic, but given that Zuerlein has been worth a second- and third-round fantasy pick in his two years under Sean McVay, this might be the kicker that kicks the rules to the curb. Now that you know just how high Zuerlein’s ceiling is, don’t be afraid to be the one to break suit and take this kicker multiple rounds ahead of his ADP.
Conclusion
Looking back at the past four years of WAR, fantasy owners now know what to expect out of whoever ends up being the top-performer at each position. You likely didn’t think a quarterback being worth a first-round pick was actually typical, or a DST being worth a second, or a kicker being anywhere in the top five rounds. WAR doesn’t tell you who the actual names of these top performers will end up being. That’s your job. But if 2018 is any indication, names like Travis Kelce, Pat Mahomes, Chicago Bears DST, and Greg Zuerlein are top performers to draft significantly higher than their ADP.
It’s up to you to decide how much regression to expect out of these position alphas and thus what round to take each in your draft. WAR only tells you where to start in this quest. It does not tell you when.
Just remember, your chance at one of these positional alphas can be gone in an instant if you wait too long. And for Greg Zuerlein and Chicago’s DST, if you don’t snipe first, you are left in the chaos that lurks behind.
You’re on the clock.
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Jeff Henderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jeff, check out his archive and follow him @statholesports.
