At TeamRankings, we develop data-driven predictive models to project the NFL. Using over a decade of historical data, our algorithms not only predict individual games, but also project where each team will end up at the end of the 2019 season.
For example, our 2019 NFL preseason predictions give Seattle, our No. 12 ranked team, a 28.5% chance to win the NFC West based on an average projection of 8.5 regular season wins in our simulations.
To come up with our preseason predictions, we simulate the 2019 NFL season thousands of times using our power ratings. But once the regular season arrives and we have more data to work with, we forecast individual games using a more comprehensive approach.
With the 2019 NFL season just days from kicking off, let’s take a look at what our computer models say about three of the biggest games on NFL Week 1 slate.
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How We Predict NFL Week 1 Games
The first step in our process is to predict every Week 1 game using multiple forecasting models we’ve developed. These models each take a very different approach to making predictions:
• Power Ratings Model. This model primarily looks at a team’s point margins of victory, adjusted for opponent strength and game location. The idea here is that win-loss records can be deceiving — a timely interception or untimely fumble can easily turn a loss into a win or vice versa. Over the long term, a team’s success at outscoring its opponents is a much better indicator of its true performance level.
• Similar Games Model. This model looks at the statistical profile of each of the two teams playing (e.g. Denver and Oakland), as well as contextual information about the game (e.g. the point spread, how far Denver needs to travel). Then, it computes a “similarity score” for over a decade’s worth of historical NFL games in our database. Past games with the highest similarity scores — that is, the games in which a team very similar to 2019 Denver played a team very similar to the 2019 Oakland — drive predictions for the current game.
• Decision Tree Model. This model is the output of a machine learning algorithm that evaluates hundreds of variables for historical NFL games. It analyzes team-level trends in a sophisticated way that also applies statistical significance testing. The general problem with trend analysis — especially in the mainstream NFL media — is that most sexy sounding trends (e.g. “teams coming off a loss on Monday night are 15-5 in their last 20 games”) are simply the result of randomness, and not actually predictive. This model avoids that trap.
Once we generate game predictions from these three models (and occasionally a few others), we compare and combine their predictions in an intelligent way to generate our final picks for a game. If a particular model has done very well with its picks in similar matchup scenarios, we’ll give that model’s prediction extra weight.
Analytics geeks would refer to this approach as a “model of models” or “ensemble forecasting.” In short, combining multiple predictive models often produces better predictions than relying on any one model alone, since every model tends to have its own particular blind spots.
Picks & Predictions For Three Big Week 1 Matchups
Without further ado, let’s get to some picks and model predictions for the first week of the 2019 NFL season.
We’ll dive into three specific matchups in this post, but remember you can get all our predictions for NFL and college football by signing up for our free trial for NFL Week 1.
Note: All predictions and odds are as of post time, and may change in the future.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars Picks
Kansas City’s high-powered offense rolls into Jacksonville to face a Jaguars squad with elevated expectations, after signing former Philadelphia QB Nick Foles in the offseason. Foles is a disciple of Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, having played under Reid both in Philadelphia and Kansas City.
Both the betting markets and our 2019 predictions expect Jacksonville to rebound from last year’s free fall. Thanks in part to Andrew’s Luck retirement, we give the Jags a 24.4% chance of winning the AFC South in 2019, making Jacksonville the most likely “worst-to-first” division winner candidate in the NFL this season.
Meanwhile, new Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo helmed the Giants defense during their 2007 Super Bowl run, when he was working for now-Jags Executive VP Tom Coughlin. If the Chiefs’ defense levels up this year and QB Patrick Mahomes plays like he did in 2018, watch out. Of course, that’s certainly no guarantee; after such gaudy numbers Mahomes is probably at least as likely to regress as improve. Still, Kansas City has done enough to land our preseason No. 1 ranking, albeit by the slightest of margins, over New England.
This matchup is a case of strength vs. strength: the Chiefs passing offense against the Jacksonville pass defense. KC averaged a league-best 8.3 yards per pass with the emergence of Mahomes last season, while the Jaguars held opposing offenses to 6.2 yards per pass (fourth best). In what may be a more telling sign, in the one matchup between these teams in 2018, Jacksonville prevented Mahomes from throwing a TD pass (the only team in the NFL to do so), and held Mahomes to his lowest passer rating of the entire season.
The hype is big on Kansas City thanks to Mahomes Mania, but especially playing at home, Jacksonville is a sneaky upset threat. The point spread says it all. Despite Kansas City being a Super Bowl contender and Jacksonville coming off a poor season, the line sits at only Chiefs -3.5.
Power Ratings Prediction:
Kansas City by 2.3
Similar Games Prediction:
Kansas City, 63.2% win odds
Decision Tree Prediction:
Kansas City, 60.3% win odds
Betting Value: None (Lay Off)
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Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings Picks
Our 2019 NFL preseason predictions place both Atlanta and Minnesota in a large group of NFC teams competing for a playoff spot, and our projected win totals for both teams are remarkably close (8.4 for Atlanta, 8.5 for Minnesota). That backdrop makes this early contest a potentially high-leverage game for future tiebreaker purposes.
Both Atlanta and Minnesota are coming off disappointing 2018 seasons in which they both missed the playoffs. Atlanta cleaned house and fired all three of its coordinators, but brought back former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who held the same role from 2012-14.
The Falcons offense was certainly the strength of the team last year with 25.9 points per game (ninth best in the NFL). Running back Devonta Freeman returns after missing most of last season with injuries, and the team invested heavily in retooling the offensive line. The defense is pinning its hopes on the healthy returns of stars Deion Jones and Keanu Neal, along with a better pass-rush from their front seven.
After firing offensive coordinator John DeFilippo during the 2018 season, the Vikings are expected to show more balance this year after passing the ball 64.4% of the time last year (fourth most in the NFL). Minnesota returns most of its 2018 roster after a cash-strapped offseason, and the team used most of its draft picks on offensive players, including three offensive linemen, in a bid to find some help for quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Vikings defense declined last season, but still ranked 10th in the league with 21.3 points allowed per game.
Leaning more heavily on the run in this game could benefit Minnesota, against an Atlanta defense that allowed 4.9 yards per rush last season (second worst in the NFL). Minnesota’s pass rush also had an NFL-best 9.04% sack rate last season, so Atlanta QB Matt Ryan may face extra pressure to release the ball quickly.
Notably, the point spread has moved in Atlanta’s favor since last week, from Minnesota -4.5 to Minnesota -3.5. This will be the first game for Atlanta at U.S. Bank Stadium, which opened in 2016; Minnesota is 2-4 against the spread there against other dome teams (Detroit and New Orleans).
Power Ratings Prediction:
Minnesota by 2.8
Similar Games Prediction:
Minnesota, 59.8% win odds
Decision Tree Prediction:
Minnesota, 63.1% win odds
Betting Value: Game Total Under 47 (55.0% confidence)
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Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots Picks
The first Sunday Night Football game of the year features what’s become an AFC rivalry between the Patriots and Steelers. The defending World Champs are hoping to compensate for tight end Rob Gronkowski’s retirement with the return of WR Josh Gordon. Still, TE depth could be an issue as veteran Ben Watson is suspended for four games and Matt LaCosse has been battling a high ankle sprain.
Most of the New England defense returns, though, with the notable exception of Michael Bennett replacing Trey Flowers at defensive end.
Pittsburgh’s personnel changes are arguably more drastic. The Steelers also lost a top passing target in trading volatile wideout Antonio Brown to Oakland, replacing him with Donte Moncrief. On defense, they signed cornerback Steven Nelson and linebacker Mark Barron, and traded up to draft linebacker Devin Bush in the first round.
We project both these teams to win their divisions this year. New England is our No. 2 team (barely) behind the Chiefs, but the Patriots still have the top odds in the NFL to win the Super Bowl (12.1%) thanks to a fortuitous schedule that includes a home game against Kansas City. We give the No. 7 Steelers just under 40% odds to win the AFC North, along with a 9.5 win projection.
Pittsburgh was the victor in the one meeting between these teams last year, snapping a five-game losing streak to New England. It’s also the sixth straight meeting between these teams with an over/under line of 49 or more; the Under has gone 1-4 in the previous five games.
Power Ratings Prediction: New England by 5.7
Similar Games Prediction: New England, 68.2% win odds
Decision Tree Prediction: New England, 65.5% win odds
Betting Value: Pittsburgh +6.0 (54.8% confidence)
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FantasyPros readers can get a free All-Access subscription to TeamRankings for NFL Week 1. The free trial includes all NFL game predictions and betting picks, plus customized picks for your NFL survivor pools and pick’em contests:
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Pool Picks From TeamRankings:
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More On FantasyPros:
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NFL Survivor Pool Strategy
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