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NFL Conference Championship Round Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2020 Playoffs)

Jan 17, 2020

George Kittle and the 49ers have a strong chance of beating the spread against the Packers

We’re down to the final four, folks. Both home teams are favored by at least seven points heading into the weekend. Can the Chiefs cover against the most surprising playoff team and will the 49ers beat the spread against another opponent that had a first-round bye? Find out on our BettingPros site, where we break down both games from every angle. As for this article, our most accurate sports betting experts have arrived to share their insight on which teams against the spread and over/under picks they are most confident in. Read on to see what the analysts are choosing.

View picks from the entire consensus for each Conference Championship Round playoff game:
TEN @ KC (-7)GB @ SF (-7.5)

Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread and why?

“My favorite ATS bet this week is San Francisco (-7.5). Not only did Aaron Rodgers have his worst game of the season against this unit, but he had the worst game of his career in terms of yards per attempt. This 49ers’ defense is finally getting healthy, so I expect them to keep the Packers’ offense in check. On offense, the 49ers are likely to exploit the Packers’ tendency to give up explosive plays. That’s how this defense has been beaten all year and that’s bad news going up against George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida. Their entire offense can score from anywhere on the field, so I think we see a few long touchdowns on Sunday.”
– Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

“These games always come down to matchups. I actually believe both home teams (Chiefs and 49ers) cover the spread. That being said, I am immensely more confident in the 49ers (-7.5). For starters, we recently saw the 49ers dismantle the Packers. I believe the 49ers are simply a nightmare matchup for the Packers. I think the 49ers win this game up front, in the trenches, on both sides of the ball. The 49ers control the game on the ground with the play-action passing game while Richard Sherman and the 49ers’ secondary keep Davante Adams in check and limit the Packers’ offense significantly. It won’t be 37-8 again, but I believe the 49ers win by multiple scores.”
– Matt MacCoy (The Next Big Thing)

“Give me the Chiefs (-7). The Titans are playing their fourth consecutive road game and that is certainly not to be overlooked. This is the week that all that travel takes a toll on them. The gameplan will be simple. Feed Derrick Henry until his legs fall off. Henry may very well get his 150 yards, but over 60 minutes, their defense will be demoralized by how easy the Chiefs’ offense moves the ball. Kansas City’s coaching staff is too good not to make the necessary adjustments and avenge their earlier loss. Plus, that game was kind of fluky in the sense that the Chiefs dominated in total yards, whereas the Titans did things like score defensive touchdowns.”
– Mike Spector (BettingPros)

“Full disclosure: I’m staying away from both of these games if the lines remain at 7.5 or 7. But if I had to pick one, I’d go with the Chiefs (-7). They got a wake-up call early in that Texans game last week. I expect the offense to continue to roll on Sunday against a burnable Titans pass defense — and for the defense to get enough stops for a comfortable win.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

“Silence the Patriots in New England — check. Trounce the Ravens in Baltimore — check. What else do the Titans (+7) have to do to earn some respect? Asking the Chiefs to lay eight points against a team that has dominated their way to the AFC Championship is quite the tall task. Tennessee is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games when they’re dogs by a field goal or more. Incredibly, they won 11 of those contests. The Titans have also covered in five straight on the road. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have failed to cover in each of their last four against Tennessee. Derrick Henry is averaging 168 yards over his last eight contests, including an eye-popping 206 over his last three. Why is that important? Well, Kansas City allowed at least 130 yards to a running back seven times in 2019 — four of those resulted in their only losses of the season and they didn’t win either of their other three by more than a touchdown. I should mention, this is a team that won seven of their other nine games by double-digits. I’m taking the points here and not looking back.”
– Elisha Twerski (FantasyPros)

“Since the two teams met back on November 24, Green Bay (+7.5) has been an absolute terror while San Francisco has slowed down quite a bit. Yes, the 49ers destroyed the Packers at home, but these two teams are very different than the last time they met. San Francisco was once thought to have the best defense in football, but they’ve allowed 165 points in those six games (27.5 points per game). Meanwhile, Green Bay was thought to have a weak defense, but they have been among the best in the league, allowing just 94 points in their six-game winning streak (17.7 points per game). Both teams have great running attacks, although the 49ers have the advantage, but Green Bay cancels that out through the air. While being at home still makes the 49ers the favorite in my book, I’ve got Green Bay covering the spread.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Q2. Which matchup are you most confident in picking the over/under and why?

TEN at KC: 53 – Under
“The under is batting a thousand for Tennessee in the playoffs and I expect that to continue. Both the Titans and Chiefs have held six of their last seven opponents to 21 points or fewer. Each of these defenses seems to be waking up at the right time. In Kansas City’s last 23 games as favorites by at least a touchdown, the over has hit just six times. Tennessee hit the over in just two of their six games as road dogs this season. At 53, I like the under for this one.”
– Elisha Twerski (FantasyPros)

“My favorite bet of any kind this week is the under on Tennessee at Kansas City. Yes, the two teams put up 67 points in their last meeting, but since then, the Chiefs’ defense has suddenly morphed into one of the best, if not the best, in football, allowing just 100 points in seven games (or 14.2 points per contest). Tennessee’s defense has been improved too and that’s against a ridiculously difficult end-of-season and playoff schedule, but when you add that with the fact that Patrick Mahomes has slowed down since coming back from his injury, it seems likely this will be a slow-paced, lower-scoring game than most are expecting.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

GB at SF: 46.5 – Under
“I love the under in the Packers-49ers game. San Francisco’s defense is healthy again and looked dominant in last week’s win. The Niners stifled the Packers in their Week 12 meeting, allowing just 2.8 yards per play. On the other side of the ball, I still don’t trust Jimmy Garoppolo in a big game — and I’m not sure Kyle Shanahan does either. I’m expecting a run-heavy attack from the 49ers, meaning fewer plays and fewer points.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

“I feel best about under in the Packers at 49ers game. I do think the 49ers will score at least 24-26 points, but I don’t think the Packers will keep up. This defense is too good, and even though Aaron Rodgers is an elite quarterback, they realistically only have two above-average weapons. Davante Adams and Aaron Jones might be enough to beat most teams, but they’ll need more than that to consistently move the ball against this 49ers defense. If the 49ers can build the early lead, then they’ll lean on their running backs and defense. That should limit the total possessions, leading to a lower-scoring game.”
– Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

GB at SF: 46.5 – Over
“I’ll take the over 46.5 in the 49ers-Packers game. Clearly I am not the only person who likes it, as the total has skyrocketed from 45. I see both teams having success offensively. The 49ers will be able to pound the rock at a vulnerable Green Bay front, while Aaron Rodgers will learn from their 37-8 defeat and find other ways to move the ball. Look for the Packers to get creative on offense and maybe even throw in a few wrinkles with trick plays. In the end, both of these play-callers are too smart to be shut down for 60 minutes.”
– Mike Spector (BettingPros)

TEN at KC: 53 – Over
“You do realize that the Chiefs scored 51 points THEMSELVES last week, right? All jokes aside, the Chiefs could not have started last week’s game against the Texans any worse — so I would anticipate them coming out firing on Sunday. I believe this game plays out in a manner that the Chiefs win from wire to wire. If this is the case, then the Titans will be chasing and will have to throw the ball more than they would like, which again, should open up the scoring.”
– Matt MacCoy (The Next Big Thing)

View full set of consensus Over/Under game picks here >>

Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more advice throughout the playoffs.

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