What a great week of golf we had at the Charles Schwab Challenge. It featured a jam-packed leaderboard on Sunday, and a number of players could have won. Hopefully, you took our advice and played both Collin Morikawa and Daniel Berger. If this was your first time playing DFS golf, you got a taste of the variance that goes with the sport. Four of the top six most-owned golfers missed the cut. Getting all six golfers through the cut is difficult, but last week was particularly crushing for some.
There are 11 golfers priced at $11,000 or above on FanDuel this week. FanDuel provides DFS players with a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Rory McIlroy ($12,200) is the only golfer priced in the 12K range, and Bryson DeChambeau ($11,900) is the next most-expensive golfer. Justin Thomas ($11,800), Jon Rahm ($11,700), and Xander Schauffele ($11,600) round out FanDuel’s top five highest-priced golfers.
FanDuel has contests for everyone ranging from their “Mega Eagle” contest, where you can turn $9 into $100,000 to their $0.05 “Lob Wedge” contest, in which you can get a taste of mass multi-entering 150 lineups if you desire. Regardless of which contests you choose to play, the depth of this field means that if you finish constructing your roster and don’t feel good about it, you should just start over. Every lineup that you submit should feel like a good lineup. Whether you go stars-and-scrubs or take more of a balanced approach, you should have a lineup that you like.
All of the tips and information that I mention in this article are plays that I will consider for my own lineups. In fact, most of the plays mentioned are based upon my customized model that includes a variety of statistics and results. However, that doesn’t mean that I will end up with all of the guys that I mention. This article is written early in the week, so additional news, research, and roster construction could lead me to different plays.
You should work at having a solid process week-in and week-out, as opposed to getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Use all the information available to you to make the best decision possible for your lineup. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun! Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action.
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Tournament Notes
- The RBC Heritage is played at the Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina. The Pete Dye designed course is a Par 71, which measures 7,099 yards.
- The course has very narrow fairways (24 yards average width) and small Bermuda greens.
- There are four Par 3s (190-yard average), 11 Par 4s (427-yard average), and three Par 5s (547-yard average) at Harbour Town.
- 155 golfers are scheduled to tee it up this week with the top-65 (and ties) making the cut.
- The average winning score is 13-under par, and the average cut line has been 2-over par. These will probably be a little different this year with the stronger field and the new cut rule.
- Previous winners of the RBC Heritage that are in the field this week include C.T. Pan (2019), Wesley Bryan (2017), Branden Grace (2016), Jim Furyk (2015, 2010), Matt Kuchar (2014), Graeme McDowell (2013), Brandt Snedeker (2011), Brian Gay (2009), Aaron Baddeley (2006), Stewart Cink (2004, 2000), Davis Love III (2003, 1998, 1992, 1991, 1987), and Bernhard Langer (1985).
- The last four winners of the RBC Heritage were all first-time winners on the PGA Tour (Pan, Satoshi Kodaira, Wesley Bryan, and Branden Grace).
- Brian Gay’s 20-under par in 2009 is the tournament record.
- Of the defending champions able to defend their RBC Heritage title, 25 straight champions have made the cut in the year after their win.
- Each of the last seven winners has trailed by at least two shots on Sunday.
- Last year’s top-five finishers were C.T. Pan, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Cantlay, Scott Piercy, and Shane Lowry. Dustin Johnson was the leader going into Sunday, only to shoot a horrific six-over to finish T28.
Course Fit & Key Statistics
Overall Statistics
My customized overall stat model measures all key stats (driving, approach, short game, putting, etc…) from both a short-and-long-form standpoint. Last week, seven of the ten players we listed finished in the top 10 at the Charles Schwab, including Collin Morikawa and Daniel Berger. Ironically, the two best players, McIlroy (T32) and Rahm (MC), had bad weeks. From a stats perspective, this week’s best golfers (in ranked order) are Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Sungjae Im, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Daniel Berger, and Justin Thomas.
Recent Form
The jury may still be out on whether a golfer can have strong recent form after the shutdown. However, seven of our “form guys” from last week made the cut at the Charles Schwab. Four of them had top-10 finishes, including winner Daniel Berger. Generally speaking, recent form is a good predictor of success. The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Daniel Berger, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Gary Woodland, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa. Among the golfers in this week’s field, Collin Morikawa leads the PGA Tour with 22 consecutive made cuts. Matthew Fitzpatrick is close behind with 19. The only other golfers in this field coming into the week with double-digit cut streaks are Tyrrell Hatton (13), Talor Gooch (13), Rory McIlroy (10), Hideki Matsuyama (10), and Abraham Ancer (10). Berger is not the only golfer coming off a win, though, as PGA veteran Luke List won on the Korn Ferry Tour last weekend.
Course History
This year’s field is stronger than any other field in the tournament’s history, as this event normally takes place the week after the Masters. As a result, you’ll want to take course history with a grain of salt. Some players with strong records here may have them because the fields were weaker. However, it’s still something to consider. The golfers who have gained the most total strokes at this course during the last five years (in ranked order) include Matt Kuchar, Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, Branden Grace, Kevin Kisner, Russell Knox, Webb Simpson, C.T. Pan, Kevin Na, Jason Kokrak, and Kevin Streelman. Four players have made the cut in each of the last five years (Kuchar, Poulter, Kisner, and Simpson). Bryson DeChambeau has two top-five finishes and two missed cuts in the last four years. Kuchar, Donald, and DeChambeau are the only players with multiple top-five finishes in the last five years.
Pete Dye Courses
This is a Pete Dye-designed course, which tends to mean narrow fairways, extreme angles on approaches, and tree-lined fairways. The same guys tend to play well on Pete Dye-designed courses. These courses just seem to fit different players’ eyes. Webb Simpson, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Ian Poulter, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Si Woo Kim, Abraham Ancer, Patrick Reed, and Ryan Moore have been the top-10 golfers in the last three years at Pete Dye courses.
Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are good to know, but sports (in particular, DFS golf) often comes down to playing the best golfers. Sure, salary is involved, but fitting as many of the world’s best golfers in your lineups increases your chances of success. Yes, there is some variance from week to week, but these players are the best for a reason. Sixteen of the world’s top-20 golfers play this weekend, including Rory McIlroy (No. 1), Jon Rahm (No. 2), Justin Thomas (No. 3), Brooks Koepka (No. 4), Dustin Johnson (No. 5), Patrick Reed (No. 6), Webb Simpson (No. 9), Xander Schauffele (No. 10), Bryson DeChambeau (No. 12), Justin Rose (No. 14), Marc Leishman (No. 15), Tony Finau (No. 16), Gary Woodland (No. 17), Matt Kuchar (No. 18), Louis Oosthuizen (No. 19), and Tyrrell Hatton (No. 20).
Favorite $11,000+ Plays
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,900)
I will have a lot of Rory McIlroy sprinkled into my MME’s, but I like really Bryson this week if he comes with a lower ownership rate. He is riding a streak of four straight top-five finishes, and he is crushing the ball off the tee, hitting greens, and sinking putts. He is playing great golf right now! He has an interesting record at Harbour Town, too. He either misses the cut or finishes top-five every other year. I am fresh off homeschooling my third-grade son during the shutdown, and we covered sequences in math. Even my son can see that the pattern says that it’s time for Bryson to have another top-five finish at the RBC Heritage. Bryson plays well at Pete Dye courses, and nobody has gained more total strokes than him in the last 12 rounds played. He is on fire right now.
Collin Morikawa ($11,500)
He is quickly establishing himself as one of the world’s best players. He is certainly one of the most consistent despite not having a strong short game. We saw his putter let him down on Sunday when he finished second in a playoff to Daniel Berger. That said, he leads the PGA Tour with 22 straight cuts made. In the last 24 rounds played, only Rory McIlroy, Patrick Reed, and Bryson DeChambeau have scored more fantasy points. During that time, Morikawa is also first in SG: Approach, second in ball-striking, and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. His cut streak is impressive, but he has also shown that he can contend on a big stage. He was runner-up last week, T9 at the API, and T7 at the Tournament of Champions. He also won at the Barracuda last Fall.
Webb Simpson ($11,400)
He let a lot of people down last week, and I’m hoping that will lower his ownership significantly for this one\. Everyone is entitled to a bad week every now and then, including the ninth-ranked player in the world. I was hoping that his price was would be lower this week. He has played in seven events this season, and he has five top-10 finishes, including a win at the Phoenix Open. He has made the cut at the RBC Heritage nine straight times, including six top-20 finishes. He finished T16 last year and T5 in 2018. His best finish at Harbour Town was a runner-up performance in 2013. It had been a year since he previously missed a cut. He finished T5 the next week — at the Masters! He also tends to play well at Pete Dye courses.
Favorite $10,000 Plays
Sungjae Im ($10,900)
His T10 at the Charles Schwab gave him his third straight top-10 finish, and yet his price decreased by $300. Despite his pricing, there are no apparent weaknesses in his game, and he is fifth in my customized stat model. Im is a great ball-striker and plays great off the tee, which will be important with the narrow fairways at Harbour Town. During the last 12 rounds (which has included his win at Honda, third at API, and T10 last week), only Bryson DeChambeau has gained more total strokes. He shot in the 60’s in each of the four rounds at the Charles Schwab. He is the seventh most-expensive player on DK, so you get a good discount playing him on FD, where he is only the 12th most-expensive option.
Daniel Berger ($10,600)
He beat a star-studded field last week, but people tend to avoid playing the winner from the week before. Since I am not a clinical psychologist, I am not going to pretend to know how he will react. I do know that Sungjae Im won the Honda and followed it up with a third the next week. Also, Brendon Todd won back-to-back earlier this year. Berger riding a streak of four straight top-10 finishes is impressive. Some were worried (not us, if you read last week’s article) that his form from before the shutdown wouldn’t last, but he put those fears to rest Sunday. He has made seven straight cuts, and in the last 24 rounds, he ranks third in SG: TOT and sixth in fantasy scoring.
Gary Woodland ($10,500)
His T9 at the Charles Schwab gave him his seventh top-12 finish in his last nine events. The defending U.S. Open champion is ranked as the 12th-best player in the world, according to DataGolf. He is sixth in my customized recent form model. In the last 12 rounds played, he is sixth in total strokes gained. He is priced too low as a recent major winner who is also currently playing well.
Favorite $9,000 Plays
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,800)
He often goes overlooked, especially since he doesn’t play full time on the PGA Tour. You might not even remember that he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational right before the shutdown. This followed up his T6 at the WGC-Mexico. Prior to Christmas (and his wrist injury), he also won the Turkish Open on the European Tour. He has seven top-20 finishes in his last eight events worldwide. He is ninth in my customized stat model, and he has made the cut in 13-straight PGA Tour events. In the last 36 measured rounds, he is eighth in total strokes gained but is only the 24th most-expensive golfer. As far as the potential rust factor, it is worth remembering that he was out for a couple of months with a wrist injury but finished T6 in his first tournament back.
Abraham Ancer ($9,600)
While he played well last week en route to a T14 finish, he didn’t do anything spectacular on the greens. Ancer tends to play Pete Dye courses well, and he’s riding a streak of ten straight PGA cuts made. In the last 24 rounds played, he is 11th in fantasy scoring.
Scottie Scheffler ($9,600)
If he could just make a putt, he might win an event. He lost more than three strokes on the greens last week, but he gained strokes tee-to-green, off-the-tee, and on approach. In the last 24 rounds, he is ninth in fantasy scoring. He is a strong ball-striker and isn’t afraid to go at pins. DataGolf ranks him as the 16th-best player in the world. So far this season, he has four top-10 finishes. He also finished T15 at the API despite losing nearly five strokes putting. He just seems priced too cheap for his upside — if his flat stick can get hot.
Favorite $8,000 Plays
Max Homa ($8,600)
In the last 24 rounds played, he ranks seventh in total strokes gained and 10th in fantasy scoring. His missed cut last week was his first in nine events. Overall, he has made the cut in 15 of his last 17 events. In the 2020 calendar year, he has three top-10 finishes, including a T5 at the Genesis. He shot 70-69 at Charles Schwab, so it’s not like he played poorly. In fact, he talked at length this week on his podcast about how he played well but just didn’t score well. I like him to bounce back this week.
Brendon Todd ($8,100)
This is probably the riskiest pick I’ll make this week, but I list the guys that I like, and Todd is definitely one of them. I will most likely be using him in a number of my main GPP lineups as a low-owned flyer. Prior to missing the cut last week, he had made 10 straight cuts, including two wins back in the fall. He finished T18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational prior to the shutdown, so we know that he still has some game. In the last 36 rounds, he ranks 19th in the field for total strokes gained and is 29th in fantasy scoring. That’s not bad for a guy with an $8,100 price! He also finished fourth here way back in 2015. Also, remember that he is fifth in the current FedEx Cup Standings. Though that is on the strength of his back-to-back wins, he is still someone who isn’t intimidated on the big stage.
Talor Gooch ($8,100)
He made another cut last week at the Charles Schwab, moving his streak to 13. There are no guarantees when it comes to golf, as the variance is too large, but you have to play a guy at this price point with 13 straight made cuts. He also finished T13 at the API and a T10 at the Genesis before the break, so he has shown that he can sneak onto some leader boards. He has a solid all-around game and ranks 31st in fantasy scoring during the last 24 rounds played.
Favorite $7,000 Plays
I only recommend plays that I plan on using myself, and I don’t plan on using anyone from the 7K range in my main lineups. Also, because of the strength of the field and the fact that I like so many of the 9-10K guys, I do not feel the need to go dumpster diving this week. However, I will always sprinkle some guys into my 150 MME lineups, but those are just to cover my bases. The 7K guys that might get 2-5% allocation this week include Eric Van Rooyen ($7,900), Vaughn Taylor ($7,700), Sam Burns ($7,700), Matthew NeSmith ($7,700), Jason Dufner ($7,600), Brian Stuard ($7,600), Mark Hubbard ($7,400), Adam Long ($7,200), Cameron Tringale ($7,100), Doc Redman ($7,000), and K.H. Lee ($7,000).
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.
