Game-By-Game Projections: Tyreek Hill (2020 Fantasy Football)
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There’s no denying the absolute fantasy dominance Tyreek Hill has put on display since entering the league in 2016. The electric wideout has burned opposing defenses with his speed and big-play ability, culminating in an 87/1,479/12 season in 2018 that saw him finish the year as fantasy’s WR1 in both standard and half-PPR formats.
Most yards on deep passes (targets thrown 20+ yards downfield) in a single season over the past decade (PFF)
2018 Tyreek Hill: 754 (on 41-such targets)
2015 Allen Robinson: 672 (46)
2012 Calvin Johnson: 652 (46)
2011 Jordy Nelson: 637 (21 – sheesh)
2019 Stefon Diggs: 635 (29)
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 25, 2020
He followed that up with a disappointing 2019 campaign that was riddled with injuries. Now, fully healthy, Hill should be ready to return elite fantasy value in 2020 as the top wideout in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. Here’s how his game-by-game projections might shake out this season:
Note: Fantasy scoring based on FantasyPros standard scoring methodology found here.
Week 1: vs. Texans
Kansas City opens the season at home against a team that has struggled with offensive consistency in recent years. Boasting one of the best cast of skill position players in the NFL, the Chiefs should be able to light up Houston’s defense pretty quickly, and this has blowout potential written all over it. The DeAndre Hopkins-less Texans won’t be able to keep up with KC here, and Hill won’t be needed for more than a handful of catches, including a touchdown.
Predicted stat line: 4 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 1 receiving TDs (14.6 fantasy points)
Week 2: @ Chargers
The Chargers’ formidable secondary consisting of Casey Hayward, Desmond King and Derwin James added another stud in Chris Harris Jr. this offseason to truly make this unit elite. Playing on the road in a tough divisional matchup, I think Hill gets slowed up here and fails to make much of an impact in the box score. Better days are ahead.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 44 receiving yards, 0 receiving TDs (6.9 fantasy points)
Week 3: @ Ravens
It’s the second week on the road for Kansas City, and after a slugfest with the Chargers in Week 2, things don’t get any easier in Week 3 at M&T Bank Stadium. Despite the less-than-ideal matchup for Hill and the Chiefs, there is plenty of motivation in facing one of the only teams that can rival them in the AFC. In what will go down as a classic game, Hill gets loose for a 40-yard score but is otherwise held in check.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 81 receiving yards, 1 receiving TDs (10.6 fantasy points)
Week 4: vs. Patriots
Kansas City should be able to dispatch the rebuilding Pats handily at Arrowhead. The renewed rivalry between these two teams in recent years unfortunately won’t carry over in 2020, as the disparity in talent between these squads is cavernous. Given the history between these two teams, however, the Chiefs should relish the opportunity to lay the smack down on New England. Hill only snags four balls, but they’re all for substantial gains.
Predicted stat line: 4 receptions, 108 receiving yards, 1 receiving TDs (18.8 fantasy points)
Week 5: vs. Raiders
The new-look Las Vegas Raiders come to town in Week 5, and for the second week in a row, Kansas City blows the doors off its opponents. The Raiders defense was one of the worst in the league in 2019, allowing the most yards per pass attempt (7.8) to opposing passers. That sets up Hill nicely to cash in on some patented big plays, and I think he explodes for a monster receiving line in the divisional victory.
Predicted stat line: 8 receptions, 147 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs (30.7 fantasy points)
Week 6: @ Bills
The Bills continued to make strides last season, going 10-6 I think Buffalo pulls an upset at home in Week 6, and the Chiefs offense is bottled up. Just a week after posting a 30-point fantasy game, Hill careens back to earth to scrape up a measly 5.7 points.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 32 receiving yards, 0 receiving TDs (5.7 fantasy points)
Week 7: @ Broncos
Kansas City makes the trek to Mile High in what could be a tough matchup for Mahomes and Hill. Though Denver’s defense is no world-beater, the unit showed improvement as the 2019 season wore on. Divisional matchups can be chippy, and Hill has been known to disappear in games like this. There will be more good games than bad in 2020, but I don’t like Hill’s outlook here.
Predicted stat line: 4 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 0 receiving TDs (7.1 fantasy points)
Week 8: vs. Jets
After two mediocre showings, Hill starts to get back on track in Week 8 at home but still falls short of 10.0 fantasy points for the third straight week. The Jets’ physical defense gives Kansas City some trouble in the first half and keeps it close before Patrick Mahomes gets hot in the third quarter and rallies the Chiefs to a victory that seems more comfortable than the final score indicates. The touchdown-drought continues for Hill.
Predicted stat line: 6 receptions, 57 receiving yards, 0 receiving TDs (8.7 fantasy points)
Week 9: vs. Panthers
The second week at home has given the Chiefs time to recover from a physical stretch of games against the Bills, Broncos and Jets in consecutive weeks, and Kansas City comes out firing in this one. This shouldn’t be much of a contest, but Hill does his thing and is able to get free for a 60-yard bomb before the game gets out of hand and the Chiefs pack it in before the bye week.
Predicted stat line: 4 receptions, 88 receiving yards, 1 receiving TDs (16.8 fantasy points)
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: @ Raiders
Hill demolished LV earlier in the year, but I don’t think he blows up here as he did in the teams’ first meeting. Sure, Kansas City is coming off a bye, and the Chiefs should be well rested, but this seems like a perfect spot for No. 10 to let you down. This is a blah game for him rather than a boom, as he’s lnown to put up some yawn-inducing stat lines on occasion.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 64 receiving yards, 0 receiving TDs (8.9 fantasy points)
Week 12: @ Buccaneers
Get your popcorn ready for Week 12, as Patrick Mahomes faces his old nemesis in Tom Brady at Raymond James Stadium. This time, Brady has a variety of excellent receiving weapons at his disposal, and the offensive firepower in this matchup should make for an entertaining afternoon. In the shootout, Hills collects seven receptions and turns them into a healthy 101 yards and a score to offset the big games of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Predicted stat line: 7 receptions, 101 receiving yards, 1 receiving TDs (19.6 fantasy points)
Week 13: vs. Broncos
Denver’s imposing defense is on tap for Week 13, though I think gets the better of the Broncos in this one. I’m not relying on him to explode for a massive receiving line, but I think Hill crosses the goal line at home. It’s an important late-season contest that gets him on the right footing in the last game before the fantasy playoffs.
Predicted stat line: 4 receptions, 62 receiving yards, 1 receiving TDs (14.2 fantasy points)
Week 14: @ Dolphins
Despite the constant “tanking” narrative, the Dolphins under Brian Flores did not give up last season. After starting the year 0-7, Miami finished 5-4 over the final nine games of the season, and a trip to South Beach this late in the year won’t be a cakewalk for the Chiefs. In a surprisingly difficult game, Hill shines and helps lead Kansas City to victory with a score and nearly 100 yards.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 93 receiving yards, 1 receiving TDs (17.8 fantasy points)
Week 15: @ Saints
Two of the league’s best square off in the fantasy semis, and Kansas City is at a disadvantage playing on the road. It’s no secret the Saints play much better at home, and I think New Orleans will do its best to slow down Hill and keep him from taking the top off the defense. I’m expecting Hill to have a solid performance but one that doesn’t feature him crossing the goal line.
Predicted stat line: 6 receptions, 87 receiving yards, 0 receiving TDs (11.7 fantasy points)
Week 16: vs. Falcons
Matt Ryan and the Falcons travel to Kansas City in what’s sure to be an entertaining shootout in fantasy championship week. Facing off against an exploitable Atlanta secondary, Hill goes off, much to the delight of Arrowhead faithful and jubilant fantasy owners alike.
Predicted stat line: 5 receptions, 135 receiving yards, 1 receiving TDs (22.0 fantasy points)
Week 17: vs. Chargers
Kansas City closes the season against Los Angeles in what should be another difficult matchup for Hill against an elite secondary. At home, Hill fares better than he did on the road in Week 2, though he finishes the season without scoring a touchdown against the Bolts.
Predicted stat line: 3 receptions, 61 receiving yards, 0 receiving TDs (7.6 fantasy points)
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A healthy Hill should get back on the board as a top-five fantasy wideout in 2020, though he certainly has the upside to push for an overall WR1 finish. Throughout his career, Hill has been more of a boom-or-blah player rather than a true boom-or-bust guy due to his penchant for mixing huge games with mediocre performances rather than disappearing completely for some weeks. There’s no reason to believe that trend doesn’t continue, so fantasy owners should be prepared for the peaks and valleys that come with owning Hill. Ultimately, his big-play ability, mixed with an elite quarterback and his place on a high-powered offense should vault him back into the ranks of the elite this season, so long as he stays healthy. He’s well worth a first-round pick.
2019 stats: 58 receptions, 860 receiving yards, 7 receiving TDs
2020 prediction: 80 receptions, 1,277 receiving yards, 10 receiving TDs