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PGA DFS: How To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup

Jun 11, 2020

PGA DFS gamers can use the Vegas odds to gain an advantage.

The PGA DFS industry has continued to gain momentum over the past couple of years. Last July, the PGA Tour and DraftKings Inc. announced a multi-year partnership. This was huge news for the DFS industry, as it will provide the Tour with another opportunity to engage fans and grow the game. We can expect bigger cash prizes and even various PGA Tour prizes down the road in DraftKings contests.

Prior to selecting your player pool each week, it can be greatly rewarding to compare Vegas odds with DraftKings player salaries. Quickly analyzing Vegas Odds can help you identify golfers who may be more highly valued by Vegas and not by DraftKings, and vice-versa. Bookmakers tend to be very sharp, and the odds they set each week are hugely influenced by a wide array of data.

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To gain a better understanding of this, let’s take a look at the Vegas odds for the upcoming Charles Schwab Challenge next week. While these will be specific to the week ahead, you can use this same strategy each and every week as you construct your DFS PGA lineups.

The top betting favorites, according to DraftKings Sportsbook are:

1 Rory McIlroy 11 Scottie Scheffler
2 Jon Rahm 12 Sungjae Im
3 Webb Simpson 13 Tony Finau
4 Justin Thomas 14 Matt Kuchar
5 Bryson DeChambeau 15 Marc Leishman
6 Brooks Koepka 16 Jordan Spieth
7 Xander Schauffele 17 Collin Morikawa
8 Dustin Johnson 18 Justin Rose
9 Patrick Reed 19 Gary Woodland
10 Rickie Fowler 20 Matthew Fitzpatrick

 
Now let’s compare these betting odds with the top-10 salaries on DraftKings. The top DraftKings salaries for the Charles Schwab are:

1 Rory McIlroy 11 Patrick Reed
2 Jon Rahm 12 Collin Morikawa
3 Justin Thomas 13 Justin Rose
4 Bryson DeChambeau 14 Marc Leishman
5 Webb Simpson 15 Gary Woodland
6 Brooks Koepka 16 Tony Finau
7 Xander Schauffele 17 Shane Lowry
8 Dustin Johnson 18 Matt Kuchar
9 Rickie Fowler 19 Scottie Scheffler
10 Sungjae Im 20 Jason Day

 
As you can see, there isn’t much discrepancy in the top-10 rankings for both Vegas and DraftKings. However, as we go further down the ranks, some potential values stick out. Note how Vegas has Scottie Scheffler listed as number 11, but he’s the 19th-highest priced golfer on DraftKings. Scheffler, who has played lots of golf during this PGA Tour stoppage, could draw sharp money.

Priced at $8,400, Scheffler is a nice value play for your DraftKings lineups. In 13 events this season, he already has four top-10s to his name. He is an elite DraftKings scorer as well. Prior to the stoppage, Scheffler ranked fourth in the PGA in birdie-or-better.

Another player Vegas values considerably more than DraftKings is Jordan Spieth. Currently 16th in betting odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, Vegas certainly knows his history at this event. Spieth has four top-10s in his last five outings. He has won and has two-runner ups to his name. Despite the poor recent form, Spieth is worth a flier in some lineups this week.

Vegas also values Kevin Na higher than DraftKings this week. Na has the 23rd-lowest odds to win this week and is the 27th-highest priced golfer on DraftKings. The reigning champion of this event also has two other top-10s to his name in the last five years. Keep Na on your radar when making your lineups.

These are examples of how you can use Vegas odds to your advantage when constructing DraftKings lineups. Always keep an eye on players whom Vegas values higher than DraftKings. Sharp money comes in on certain golfers each week, and this ultimately drives down their betting odds. You can capitalize by finding salary relief when making your lineups each week.

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Nic Turner is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.

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