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Breshad Perriman: A Fantasy Hail Mary

by John Ferguson | @FantasyFerguson | Featured Writer
Nov 30, 2020

Breshad Perriman is a fantasy Hail Mary who may be worthy of a dart throw.

It’s been a tough year for the New York Jets. Winless, hopeless, and still being guided by a wild-eyed psycho. The great thing about fantasy football is that a team doesn’t have to be good to provide players that offer fantasy value. Sure, it helps. But it’s not a prerequisite. This is the situation that we have found ourselves in with Jets wideout Breshad Perriman. Over the last three weeks, Perriman has recorded 11 catches for 234 yards and three TDs. But does he have what it takes to be a fantasy factor over the home stretch of the season? Let’s take a deep look.

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Player Profile

Breshad Perriman is in the fifth year of his NFL career. He entered the league as a first-round draft pick of the Baltimore Ravens in 2o15, who took him 26th overall. A product out of UCF, Perriman finished out the final two years of his collegiate career with 811 yards and four TDs as a sophomore and 1,044 yards and nine TDs as a junior. He averaged just over 20 yards per reception in both of his final years in college. An obvious burner, Perriman lit up the combine, recording a 4.30-second 40-yard dash, and a scout reportedly clocked him at 4.19 seconds at his 2015 Pro Day. This led to the Ravens dubbing him “The NFL’s Fastest Man.”

Speed didn’t translate to success with the Ravens as Perriman turned out to be a draft bust for the team. He recorded just 33 catches for 499 yards and three TDs as a rookie, hauling in just 50% of his targets. He regressed even more in his second year catching just 10 passes for 77 yards with an appalling 28.6% reception percentage. After two seasons, the Ravens were ready to chalk him up as a loss, and he was cut from the team. Washington kicked the tires on him in 2018, but he was quickly released a week later. He landed with the Browns in the middle of the 2018 season and played in 10 games with the team but never had a primary role. He played over 50% of the team’s offensive snaps just once.

Last season, Perriman caught on with the Buccaneers for a one-year deal. He was buried on the depth chart but emerged as a late-season sensation due to injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Over the last five weeks of the 2019 regular season, Perriman was a top-three wideout according to our Fantasy Leaders Tool, averaging 21.2 PPG in PPR leagues. He trailed just Michael Thomas and DeVante Parker during that span.

Perriman is again on a one-year, “prove-it” deal, this time with the Jets. He has missed some time with injuries this season, but now fully healthy, he has come on strong over the last three weeks, again looking to make a late-season push towards fantasy relevance.

State of the Offense

You know damn well what the state of the Jets’ offense is. They’re last in the league in offensive points and passing yards. They’ve totaled just nine passing TDs all season and are in the bottom of the league when it comes to total offensive plays. They’re undoubtedly the worst team in the league.

Outlook

Despite the poor overall team stats, Perriman has put together some solid individual stats when it comes to recent volume. He has seen a 24.1% target share over his last three games, which trails just Denzel Mims on the team. Both Mims and Perriman have ranked top-10 in average depth of target this season and rank first and second respectively over the last month. Perriman was the recipient of Darnold’s longest pass of the day in Week 12 as well.

I know what you’re thinking. A member of the Jets being a priority waiver wire add!? “I’m not listening to you, you’re crazy!” (in Nacho Libre voice). In 12-team leagues, yeah, it’s a tough pill to swallow. Perriman is worth a bench stash in your basic 12-team leagues as a fantasy Hail Mary and flexible as a dart throw. He offers a lot of the same appeal that got people excited about Robby Anderson being a potential WR2 last season. Perriman’s real value is for those of you in 14-team leagues or more. He also still carries some solid dynasty appeal as a legitimate deep threat who could be free from the clutches of Adam Gase next season. There are some solid matchups on the horizon for Perriman against both the Raiders and Seahawks, who have been very generous to wideouts in fantasy. He also gets a plus matchup with a revenge-game narrative in Week 16 against the Browns. Deep leaguers who haven’t caught on yet should make Perriman a priority add this week.

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John Ferguson is a Featured Writer and Editor at FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFerguson.

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