Mexico will play host to the final stop on the PGA Tour for the 2020 calendar year. FanDuel has eight golfers priced at $11,000 or above for the Mayakoba Golf Classic. FanDuel provides DFS players with a salary cap of $60,000 to select six golfers for an average roster spot of $10,000. Justin Thomas’ $12,600 price tag is one of the highest we’ll see. Brooks Koepka is the only other golfer in the 12K range at $12,200. Harris English ($11,500), Daniel Berger ($11,400), and Viktor Hovland ($11,300) round out FanDuel’s top-five highest priced golfers.
Remember to have a solid process week in and week out instead of getting bogged down by recency bias or the ups-and-downs of the weekly golf grind. Any golfer can win (e.g., Robert Streb at the RSM after missing the cut in seven of his previous 10 events). Likewise, even the best golfers can miss the cut. Whether you win or lose, golf is one of the most entertaining fantasy sports to follow because you get four days of action. Good luck and, most importantly, have fun!
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Tournament Notes
- Note: Even though this tournament is played in 2020, it is considered part of the 2021 PGA Season. It is part of the wraparound season (Fall swing). This can get confusing when looking at course history or past events. The years referenced in this article will refer to the actual year the event was played as opposed to the PGA season it was a part of.
- The tournament is played at the Fairmont Mayakoba Resort on the El Camaleon Golf Club near Cancun, Mexico. The par-71 course measures 7,017 yards.
- There are only 132 golfers scheduled to tee it up this week, with the top-65 (and ties) making the cut and playing the weekend.
- The Paspalum greens should be slow this week (about 11 feet on the stimpmeter).
- This course is typically one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, with the average winning score from the last seven years approaching 20-under par.
- Past champions on this course that are scheduled to play this week include Brendon Todd (2019), Patton Kizzire (2017), Pat Perez (2016), Graeme McDowell (2015), Charley Hoffman (2014), Harris English (2013), John Huh (2012), and Brian Gay (2008).
Course Fit & Key Statistics
Recent Form
The golfers that rate out the best in my customized recent form model (in ranked order) are Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Corey Conners, Brooks Koepka, Harris English, Scott Piercy, Doug Ghim, Viktor Hovland, Joaquin Niemann, and Carlos Ortiz. Viktor Hovland leads this field with 16 straight made cuts on the PGA Tour. Justin Thomas and Russell Henley are the only other golfers in this field with double digits at 11 and 10, respectively. Daniel Berger has eight straight made PGA cuts. Abraham Ancer and Joaquin Niemann both have seven straight.
Course History
I tend to emphasize baseline talent and recent form, but there is a lot to be said for golfers that enjoy playing at certain courses. Some courses line up better for some golfers. Comfortability with the way a golf course plays can give a golfer confidence going into the week. The ten golfers that rate out the best in my course history model include Russell Knox, Pat Perez, Charles Howell, Brice Garnett, Emiliano Grillo, Chez Reavie, Danny Lee, Graeme McDowell, Vaughn Taylor, and Scott Piercy.
Scoring
It is always important to score well but being a solid par maker might not be advantageous this week. This event produces tremendous scoring opportunities and low scores every year, so we want to look at the golfers in this field with the most scoring upside. My custom model takes into account birdie or better percentage and scoring average. The golfers who rate as the best scorers this year (in ranked order) include Justin Thomas, Peter Malnati, Will Gordon, Corey Conners, Patton Kizzire, Doug Ghim, Harris English, Sepp Straka, Will Zalatoris, and Sebastian Munoz.
Driving Accuracy
Driving accuracy has been one of the best predictors of success here at the OHL over the years. Distance off-the-tee is never a bad thing, but it’s not necessary here. The golfers who are the most accurate drivers in my customized model this week (in ranked order) are Chez Reavie, Brendon Todd, Ryan Armour, Corey Conners, Abraham Ancer, Russell Henley, Henrik Norlander, Chris Baker, Brian Stuard, and Brice Garnett.
Official World Golf Ranking
All the statistics and course history are good to know, but sports (particularly DFS golf) often come down to betting on talent and playing the best overall players. Sure, salary is involved, but fitting as many of the world’s best golfers in your lineups increases your chances for success. According to the OWGR, the best ten golfers in this field (in ranked order) are Justin Thomas (No. 3), Brooks Koepka (No. 12), Daniel Berger (No. 13), Tony Finau (No. 19), Abraham Ancer (No. 22), Viktor Hovland (No. 26), Marc Leishman (No. 27), Harris English (No. 33), Gary Woodland (No. 35), and Billy Horschel (No. 42).
Favorite $11,000+ Plays
Justin Thomas ($12,600)
There is a 7K guy (see below) that you should be automatically playing, so you’ll have room to play the world’s third-ranked golfer at this steep price. He was fourth at the Masters and T2 at the ZOZO before that. I am not going to overthink this one.
Harris English ($11,500)
Talking about overthinking, I will not be scared off by this crazy price for English. He is ranked as the 11th best golfer in the world, according to DataGolf. For a little more than a year, English has been turning in strong performances. He has found something in his game and is making the most of it. In his last eight starts, he has four top-10 finishes, including the U.S. Open and the NORTHERN TRUST (which he should have won if not for DJ and his out-of-body performance). Overall, he has 12 top-20 finishes this calendar year. Last year, he finished T5 here.
Abraham Ancer ($11,000)
He might be a popular pick this week playing in his home country. However, I am hoping that his final round 76 at the Masters keeps his ownership reasonable. After starting that Sunday in the final group, he would finish T13. That finish was his third top-15 in his last six starts. He has played the weekend in 24 of his last 25 events, including seven in a row. He has two top-10 finishes in his last three starts here at the OHL. Other 11K golfers I will be considering are Viktor Hovland ($11,300) and Tony Finau ($11,200).
Favorite $10,000 Plays
Corey Conners ($10,800)
The ball-striking extraordinaire is playing very well coming into this week with back-to-back tenth-place finishes at the RSM and the Masters. He is riding a streak of six straight made cuts during which he also has a T24 at the Houston Open, T8 at the ZOZO, and a T17 at the Sanderson Farms. That’s five top-25 finishes in his last six events. He can score in bunches. In the last 24 rounds played, he is third in fantasy scoring and birdie-or-better percentage. He is also ninth in total strokes gained.
Will Zalatoris ($10,700)
I was prepared for him to be one of the highest-priced golfers this week and instead comes in as only the 11th most expensive. Yes, please! In the last 24 rounds, he ranks second in total strokes gained and fifth in fantasy scoring. He has top-10 finishes in four of his six PGA events since the restart. In his 20 professional events this calendar year, he has 13 top-10 finishes.
Sebastian Munoz ($10,100)
I am going to chalk his MC at the RSM up to a Masters hangover. He had 10 straight made cuts before the RSM, including six top-20 finishes and three top-10 finishes. He can accumulate birdies in a hurry and typically outscores his finishing position. Other 10K golfers I will be considering include Russell Henley ($10,900), Joaquin Niemann ($10,600), Carlos Ortiz ($10,300), and Brendon Todd ($10,000).
Favorite $9,000 Plays
Joel Dahmen ($9,900)
Since his T6 at last year’s OHL Mayakoba, Dahmen has made 17 of 21 cuts. In his last ten starts, he has top-10 finishes at the ZOZO and the PGA Championship. He doesn’t hit it a long way but is accurate, which is an important stat to consider this week.
Patton Kizzire ($9,800)
Five straight cuts, including a T10 at the RSM and a T11 at the Houston Open, makes Kizzire a strong option this week even though he is in a price range we are not used to seeing. He is riding a hot putter right now, but he is typically a strong putter. He is also someone that can score in bunches. He typically outscores his finishing position. He also ranks sixth in this field for birdie or better percentage in the last 24 rounds. He has made the cut in all four starts here, including a win in 2017.
Doug Ghim ($9,400)
He’s made the cut in seven of his last 10 events. This is significant because he was a highly regarded college player a few years ago but struggled slightly after turning pro. The ability has always been there, but it looks like he is starting to grow into that talent. Five of his seven made cuts have resulted in top-25 finishes, including a T18 at the RSM and a T14 at Bermuda. In the last 24 rounds, he is fifth in this field in total strokes gained and seventh in fantasy scoring. He is a very good ball-striker. Other 9K golfers I will be considering are Harold Varner ($9,700), Scott Piercy ($9,700), Adam Long ($9,500), Sepp Straka ($9,300), Denny McCarthy ($9,200), and Kevin Streelman ($9,100).
Favorite $8,000 Plays
Peter Malnati ($8,800)
Malnati has made the cut in seven of his last eight events, including five in a row. He had back-to-back top-five finishes at the Shriners and Sanderson Farms. In the last 24 rounds played, he is fourth in this field in total strokes gained and fantasy scoring.
Brice Garnett ($8,600)
He has made five of his last seven cuts. He also seems to love it here. He has five straight top-25 finishes, including three top-10 finishes. He has also shot par or better in every round of those last five starts. I will also be looking at other 8K golfers such as John Huh ($8,900), Maverick McNealy ($8,800), Chesson Hadley ($8,300), Andy Ogletree ($8,200), Kristoffer Ventura ($8,100), and Wesley Bryan ($8,000).
Favorite $7,000 Plays
Brian Harman ($7,000)
FanDuel obviously made a mistake this week as Harman was $10,100 the last time we had a chance to roster him at the RSM. He is the average price over on DraftKings. You play him, and don’t worry about ownership. This is a free square. Instead of trying to pick the right six golfers, you only have to pick five golfers. He’s made 11 of his last 12 cuts on the PGA Tour.
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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can send him questions and follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, he may end up using different players and strategies after additional information and consideration than what he recommended in this article.