Every week fantasy football owners are confronted with difficult lineup questions. Who should you start, and who should you sit? That’s what many are left asking, often with little help. It’s good you landed here, as we can help each week using our Who Should I Start tool. Simply type in several players that you are deciding between per position or for your flex and we will let you know who the experts would start and who they would sit.
Here’s a look at the toughest start and sit decisions of the week along with our expert’s advice.
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Start Matthew Stafford (QB – DET) or Philip Rivers (QB – IND)?
69% of Experts Would Start Stafford
Stafford
Sometimes you just have to throw up your hands and say, “it makes no sense.” There have been four games where Stafford has topped 18.5 fantasy points this year. Those games have come against the Bears, Colts, Saints, and Washington. Those are all teams who rank as bottom-11 matchups for quarterbacks. Does that make him a must-play against this week’s opponent? The Packers have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this year. The reason for that is because their offense has been so efficient, it’s kept opponents off the field. They’ve averaged just 60.1 plays per game, which is the third-fewest in the league. Overall, Packers games net just 123.3 plays per game, which is the second-lowest number in the NFL, while the Lions games have netted 129.8 plays, which is slightly above the league average. If there’s something Stafford has going for him, it’s that the Packers have struggled to get consistent pressure, though that hasn’t really benefited him this year. In one of the oddest stats I’ve found this year, Stafford has a 100.9 QB Rating when under pressure (best in NFL), but just a 92.5 QB Rating while kept clean (37th). Again, it makes no sense. Stafford completed 20-of-33 passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting against the Packers this year, finishing as the QB19 back in Week 2. Prior to holding the Eagles quarterbacks in check, the Packers did allow both Philip Rivers and Mitch Trubisky to throw for three touchdowns apiece in Weeks 11 and 12, so it’s not like it’s a must-avoid matchup. Stafford has the look of a mid-tier QB2 who should be playing from behind for most of the day.
Rivers
Can you believe that we’ve now had top-16 performances in six of the last seven weeks, including each of the last four? The only negative mark during that streak came against the Ravens, who are one of the best defenses in the league. It seems like his chemistry with the receivers took some time, but he eventually got there. The unfortunate part is that he might be down to their third-string left tackle for this week’s game. Fortunately, the Raiders have struggled to generate any pressure this year and have reached the opposing quarterback for a sack just 3.27 percent of the time, which is the third-lowest number in the NFL. They are coming off a game in which they brought tons of pressure to Sam Darnold, but that’s more of an outlier than the norm. The downside for Rivers is that he’s obviously not a mobile quarterback, so if he has an off-day throwing the ball, it can crush his streaming appeal. The Raiders have allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than two touchdowns, and that was Tom Brady way back in Week 7. That’s a bit worrisome for Rivers, as he hasn’t topped 19.2 fantasy points in a game he hasn’t thrown at least three touchdowns. When you factor in his low floor without mobility, that’s not a great combination, though we have seen 7-of-12 quarterbacks throw at least two touchdowns against the Raiders. Rivers did play this Gruden team last year, and though it was with the Chargers, it’s something. He completed 44-of-70 passes for 486 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions in the two games combined, so it wasn’t all that great. The Colts do have a 26.8-point team-implied total, which is solid, but Rivers’ floor/ceiling combo keeps him in the middling QB2 conversation.
Start J.K Dobbins (RB – BAL) or James Conner (RB – PIT)?
65% of Experts Would Start Dobbins
Dobbins
We didn’t know if Dobbins was going to get the workhorse role back in the lineup, but the answer was apparent. The touch split was Dobbins 11, Edwards 7, Ingram 7, and Justice Hill 1. The snaps were Dobbins 21, Edwards 18, Ingram 11, and Hill 6. The 38 percent snap share Dobbins’ lowest since back in Week 5, but that could’ve been because it was his first game back from COVID. He certainly looked good, though it’s important to note it was against the Cowboys, who appeared to forget how to tackle. The Browns have done a good job limiting the production to running backs, which is evidenced by the fact that they’ve accounted for just 26.7 percent of the production by skill-position players against them, which ranks as the third-lowest number in the league. There’s been just one team of running backs who’ve rushed for more than 128 yards against them (Raiders, 166), so it’s been a major problem for timeshares like the Ravens have, especially when they’re non-existent in the passing game. Even when you factor in the level of competition they’ve had, they’re the 10th-toughest schedule adjusted matchup for running backs. In the first meeting, the Ravens running backs combined for just 68 yards on 21 carries, though they did score two rushing touchdowns. All in all, there have been eight running backs to finish top-24 against the Browns, and six of them totaled 18-plus touches, a number we won’t likely find in this group. You’re looking for big plays or touchdowns here, and Dobbins is certainly the most likely to deliver. He should be considered a low-end RB2. Edwards looked good against the Cowboys while Ingram looked like the same running back he’s been all year. Edwards should be considered a touchdown-dependent RB4 while Ingram isn’t someone you should aim to play.
Conner
He’s been cleared to return and will play in this game after a two-game absence. While he was out, no Steelers running back earned a bigger role, that’s for sure. Benny Snell totaled just 65 scoreless yards on 24 carries while Anthony McFarland tallied 24 yards on seven carries. It’s not like Conner has been great when on the field recently, either. It’s because their offensive line is creating them just 0.92 yards before contact, which is the lowest mark in the league. Conner has averaged a rock-solid 2.89 yards after contact, which is what his value higher than most. Meanwhile, the Bills have allowed ball carriers just 1.33 yards before contact, which ranks as the 14th-lowest number in the league. They’ve struggled to tackle though, because running backs have averaged a rock-solid 4.52 yards per carry against them, including a touchdown every 26.9 carries, which are both working in Conner’s benefit. They’re the definition of an average run defense, though it’s been somewhat feast or famine against them. We’ve seen just four running backs top 60 rushing yards, but those four running backs all ran for 100-plus yards. When you add in the 9.0 PPR points per game they’ve allowed through the air to running backs, you have what is the team that allows the 12th-most fantasy points to the running back position. We’ve watched 12 running backs finish as the RB26 or better, which should make you feel solid about getting Conner into lineups as a low-end RB2 who should be fresh.
Start Nyheim Hines (RB – IND) or J.D. McKissic (RB – WAS)?
61% of Experts Would Start Hines
Hines
Sure, Taylor has posted RB13 and RB3 finishes over the last two games he’s played, but don’t forget those games came against two of the three worst run defenses in all of football. Fortunately, he’ll play the fourth-worst run defense this week, as the Raider have allowed a massive 28.0 PPR points per game to the running back position. Not only have they allowed a touchdown every 18.4 carries (most often in NFL), but they’ve also allowed 4.71 yards per carry, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. The odd part is that the Raiders have seen just 21.4 carries per game against them, as teams have chosen to run the ball just 41.2 percent of the time. That carry number is scary for a team that has a three-way timeshare, even if Taylor is getting 62.5 percent of them, like he has in the last two games he’s played. But here’s the good news: Taylor has run 27 routes in his last two games, which trails Hines by just six routes. The Raiders have allowed 5.4 receptions and 42.9 receiving yards per game to running backs, which should provide an additional safety net for Taylor. There have been four running backs who’ve scored two rushing touchdowns against the Raiders and Taylor has received 47.5 percent of the team’s red zone carries. He doesn’t come without risk, but Taylor has done enough to be considered a mid-to-low-end RB2 for this game. Hines remains in the low-end RB3 range as someone who can lead the team in touches at any random point.
McKissic
McKissic got back to being heavily targeted out of the backfield last week and reeled in all 10 of his targets. While he has way more value in Full PPR formats, he is still a safe option to start in Half PPR leagues. McKissic should be utilized heavily again this week and he can be viewed as a low-end RB2 with upside.
Start Marvin Jones Jr. (WR – DET) or Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)?
57% of Experts Would Start Jones Jr.
Jones Jr.
Just when you’re ready to give up on Jones, he pops back up and reminds you that he’s the No. 1 wide receiver on the Lions. He’s averaged a robust 10.0 targets per game over the last four weeks, which ranks as the sixth-most among wide receivers. He’s been the No. 9 wide receiver in PPR formats during that time, too. Jones has actually scored 10.8-plus PPR points in six of his last seven games, so this goes beyond no Golladay. Any wide receiver who’s averaging 10.0 targets per game needs to be in lineups, even if it’s a not-so-great matchup. The Packers would qualify as one of those, as they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to them. The 1.72 PPR points per target they’ve allowed is the 10th-lowest mark in the league, but that’s where we need to be reminded about what volume means to wide receivers. Even if Jones were the average NFL wide receiver against them and got the same target share he’s received over the last four games, he’d finish with 17.2 PPR points, which would be a top-20 performance. He’s probably going to draw Jaire Alexander in coverage, who’s allowed 26-of-49 passing for 273 yards and two touchdowns. That’s a bit worse, as his coverage has amounted to just 1.33 PPR points per target, but 13.3 PPR points would still be a mid-tier WR3 performance. I just wanted to share why we’re constantly harping on volume. Jones was struggling out of the gate this year and though he only saw six targets without Golladay in the lineup, he finished with 4/23/1 in the Week 2 matchup against the Lions. It’s not the greatest matchup with Alexander, but he’s a high-end WR3.
Samuel
Samuel’s one of the most exciting players to watch in all of football. He’s electric with the ball in his hands and he can make things happen after the catch that few other receivers in the league can. Washington’s the second-toughest matchup for opposing WRs from a fantasy perspective, but Samuel absolutely belongs in your starting lineup as a high-end WR3.
Start Cole Beasley (WR – BUF) or Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE)?
51% of Experts Would Start Beasley
Beasley
Beasley’s been underrated and currently sits as the No. 19 wide receiver on the season in PPR formats, ahead of guys like Chase Claypool and Cooper Kupp. After doing extremely well in a tough matchup versus the 49ers, he moves onto a matchup with the Steelers, who rank as the No. 1 team in DVOA while defending the short pass. But here’s the kicker, do you know who No. 2 is on that list? The 49ers, the same team Beasley just tagged for 130 yards and a touchdown. There’s been some real inconsistency to Beasley’s usage, though. He’s finished with four or less targets in three of their last five games, which has led to fewer than 40 yards in each of them. Mike Hilton has been playing better as of late and has allowed 20-of-28 passing for 223 yards and one touchdown in his coverage, but we have seen five slot-heavy wide receivers finish as top-36 options against the Steelers this year. With how much we’re expecting the Bills to struggle running the ball, Beasley should be targeted semi-frequently, so consider him a low-end WR3 who should provide a stable floor.
Landry
In the two non-windy/rainy games the Browns have played without Odell Beckham, Landry has seen 21 targets, bringing in 16 receptions, 205 yards, and two touchdowns. To be fair, he played against two of the worst defenses in football (Jaguars, Titans), but it’s still huge to see him get a massive 33.9 percent of the Browns targets in those games. This week is going to be much tougher against a Ravens defense that’s allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. It’s not due to a lack of trying, as receivers have been targeted 21.7 times per game, which is the seventh-most in the league. When you break it down to fantasy production on a per-target basis, the Ravens rank as the second-toughest matchup behind only the Rams, allowing a tiny 1.56 PPR points per target. This is a matchup the Ravens are familiar with, as they play these guys twice a year. In their last two games, which had the same cornerback trio, Landry has finished with 5/61/0 and 7/74/0, so he was still useful. It’ll be Marlon Humphrey in coverage most of the game, who’s been attacked quite a bit lately. Over the last three weeks, he’s allowed 17-of-27 passing for 147 yards and a touchdown. That’s not great production, but he’s been targeted a lot, which amounts to fantasy points regardless. Landry should deliver a solid floor as a mid-to-low-end WR3.
Start Logan Thomas (TE – WAS) or Hayden Hurst (TE – ATL)?
59% of Experts Would Start Thomas
Thomas
Washington has found something with Logan Thomas. Thomas has been in the NFL since 2014 and he’s been on three other teams, but it’s all finally clicked here in Washington. He’s being heavily targeted with Alex Smith at QB and he’s now moved into the weekly must-start conversation. The 49ers are the second-toughest matchup for opposing TEs, but Thomas is seeing too much work to be scared off of starting him. Fire him up as a low-end TE1 with upside.
Hurst
Hurst is coming off of back-to-back disappointing performances against the Saints. With the fact that he performed well against the Raiders in Week 12, we shouldn’t read too much into his stat lines against New Orleans. They’re an extremely tough defense for opposing TEs and Hurst now has an easier matchup against the Chargers. LA is allowing the 7th most fantasy points to the TE position and Hurst can be started as a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 this week.
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