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NFL Wild Card Picks: Against the Spread & Over/Under (2021 Playoffs)

Jan 8, 2021

Josh Allen and the Bills have done well against the spread and this week should be no exception

We’re on the cusp of the NFL’s first-ever six-game Wild Card slate! Few things are more exciting than high-stakes NFL action all day Saturday and Sunday. Not only do the extra games give everyone more chances to win some cash, but we’ve got our most accurate betting experts here to share their favorite bets and help you get paid in the process! Read on to see which picks they’re taking this weekend.

View picks from the entire consensus for each Wild Card playoff game:
IND @ BUF (-6.5)LAR @ SEA (-3)TB @ WAS (+8)BAL @ TEN (+3) | CHI @ NO (-10) | CLE @ PIT (-6)

Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread and why?

“It’s chalky to bet on a No. 2 seed as a home favorite, but this is the right side. Many of the Bills’ (-6.5) starters got some rest in Week 17 — and they still beat the playoff-hopeful division rival Dolphins by 30 points. This year the Bills are a league-best 11-5 ATS, and for his career, quarterback Josh Allen is 26-12-2 ATS. After opening the year on fire, the Bills cooled off in the middle of the season, but since Week 9 they are an outrageous 8-0 ATS with an average cover margin of +14.8 points.”
– Matthew Freedman (The Action Network)

“The Bills (-6.5) were 11-5 ATS in the regular season, which tied for the best ATS record in the league. They enter the playoffs having won nine of their last 10 games, with the only loss in that span coming against the Arizona Cardinals by way of Kyler Murray’s last-second hail mary. Their offense is firing on all cylinders and is coming off a game in which they scored 56 points against one of the league’s best scoring defenses while playing mostly backups in the second half. Lastly, do not underestimate the effect the cold weather will have on Philip Rivers and a dome team like the Colts.”
– Mike Spector (BettingPros)

“The Browns have been hit hard with COVID-19 cases during the most crucial time of the year for them. They will be without their head coach Kevin Stefanski, Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio, and more. The Steelers (-6) were able to cover their +10 point spread against the Browns in Week 17 with Ben Roethlisberger resting along with other starters.”
– Anthony Haage (SkullKing Sports)

“The Steelers (-6) were bet up from -4 to -6, but they’re still an appealing play at the latter number. The Browns are dealing with numerous positive tests that have prevented them from practicing this week. Not only will they be down several offensive linemen and their top safety, but their head coach won’t even be able to attend the game. Meanwhile, Matt Feiler returned to practice, so if he can play, the Steelers will have a healthy offensive line for the first time since Week 11.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

“I think the Colts at +6.5 against Buffalo is my favorite spread pick. Josh Allen has been incredible this season, but the last time we saw him in a playoff game he didn’t have a touchdown and managed a 52% completion percentage against a mediocre Texans defense. Although the Bills should win, I like the veteran Philip Rivers to keep the game close.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)

“Whether it’s an injured Jared Goff or John Wolford under center for the Rams, I expect the Seahawks (-3) to let Russ cook in this one and win by at least a touchdown.”
– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice)

View more picks against the spread from dozens of experts >>

Q2. Which matchup are you most confident in picking the over/under and why?

LAR at SEA: 42 – Under
“The Rams and Seahawks met twice during the regular season and neither game reached 40 combined points. It is looking more and more likely that John Wolford will make his second-career start and first-ever playoff start for the Rams. That makes the under even more likely considering Sean McVay will not take many risks with an inexperienced quarterback. Los Angeles has a number of answers on defense for Seattle’s key weapons, namely cornerback Jalen Ramsey’s ability to limit Seattle WR D.K. Metcalf’s big plays.”
– Mike Spector (BettingPros)

“The first two times these teams faced off, the point totals have been 39 and 29. Jared Goff is questionable to play following his thumb surgery and I don’t expect the Rams’ offense to be as sharp as usual. Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey will lead the charge on defense for the Rams as well and bottle up Russell Wilson.”
– Anthony Haage (SkullKing Sports)

BAL at TEN: 54.5 – Over
“I normally don’t bet the over on outdoor postseason games, but I must make an exception here. With quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry, the Titans have an explosive offense that can score in a hurry — and they are absolutely awful on defense, where they rank No. 29 with an 11.1% DVOA. That combination causes a lot of overs. In Tannehill’s 29 starts with the Titans, the over is 22-6-1 (including postseason). At Nissan Stadium in Nashville, the Tannehill over is 11-2-1.”
– Matthew Freedman (The Action Network)

CHI at NO: 47 – Under
“Under 47.5 in the Saints-Bears game is hands-down my favorite. Both of these defenses are in the top half of the league in fewest points allowed per game. Plus, Trubisky against the team allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game is more than concerning. I think Drew Brees will be in ‘game-manager mode’ and do enough to win without the need to torch the Bears’ defense.”
– Ellis Johnson (True North Fantasy Football)

CLE at PIT: 47.5 – Under
“I’m not a big totals player, but Steelers-Browns under 47.5 looks good to me. The Browns have multiple missing offensive linemen, so it will be difficult for them to maintain drives. The Steelers, meanwhile, have been utilizing a dink-and-dunk offense, which creates long drives that eat up the clock. If Matt Feiler doesn’t return despite practicing, that only strengthens the under play.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

TB at WAS: 44.5 – Under
“Two solid defenses and one miserable offense in the WFT should make for an easy under here. With the Bucs getting out to an early lead, and without the services of Mike Evans, I expect Tampa Bay to be mostly in clock-killing mode throughout the second half as the WFT tries in vain to move the ball downfield.”
– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice)

View full set of consensus Over/Under game picks here >>

Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more advice throughout the playoffs.

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