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Super Bowl LV Betting Odds, Picks, and Prop Bets (2021 Playoffs)

Feb 4, 2021

 
We’re just three days away from capping off the wildest season in league history! We’ve got two of the league’s best signal-callers facing off in what should be an exhilarating matchup.

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs enter this game having won 25 of their last 27 games, including last year’s Super Bowl. Meanwhile, a much-improved defense along with the acquisitions of Tom Brady and Antonio Brown have helped propel the Buccaneers to the game’s biggest stage. The Chiefs are three-point favorites, even though the Bucs are playing in their home stadium. Let’s also keep in mind that no team has won back-to-back titles since the Tom Brady-led Patriots accomplished that feat back in 2004.

Considering how even both teams are on each side of the ball, it’s very difficult to place a wager with extreme confidence on either the spread or point total. That’s why we have our most accurate sports betting experts to give their take on this highly anticipated matchup. They’re also naming their favorite prop bet for this weekend. Enjoy the game and we wish you all the best of luck!

Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread and why?

“I like the Chiefs at -3 and would bet them to -5, although I think I’m in the minority among industry experts with my Chiefs enthusiasm. In Week 12, the Chiefs sprinted to a 17-0 lead against the Bucs. At the start of the fourth quarter, they were ahead 27-10. Even though they won by only three points, they were clearly the better team. The Bucs are the first team in NFL history to play a Super Bowl at home, but home-field advantage doesn’t mean this year what it has in previous seasons, and since HC Andy Reid joined the Chiefs in 2013, they have been the league’s most profitable team on the road against the spread with their 41-24-1 record.”
– Matthew Freedman (Action Network)

“I like the Buccaneers at +3. Assuming Mitchell Schwartz is out again, as expected, the Chiefs will be down three offensive linemen against one of the top defensive lines in the NFL. The Chiefs scored just 10 points in the final three quarters of their first matchup against the Buccaneers, as Tampa was able to put lots of pressure on Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs weren’t even missing Eric Fisher in that game, while Tampa didn’t have Donovan Smith or Jamel Dean, so Tampa will be better in the rematch.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

“I am most confident in the Chiefs (-3) mostly due to the fact of how Tampa Bay struggled to stop Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill in their first matchup. The Chiefs also showed how great their defense is by shutting down Josh Allen and they have been a top-10 scoring defense all year.”
– Anthony Haage (SkullKing Sports)

“Not only are the Buccaneers getting three points, but they are playing at home too. Yes, this game can go either way because the Chiefs have an incredible offense and coach, but the Buccaneers have more superstars on offense: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Leonard Fournette, and Ronald Jones. Their potent offense and better defense leads me to be more confident in the Buccaneers winning, which means they’ll cover the spread.”
– Tal Malachovsky (The Fantasy Scout)

“We saw the Chiefs (-3) at full-throttle for the first time in a while in the AFC Championship — and they easily handled a Bills team that had a lot of supporters coming in. The offensive line injuries are a real concern versus a strong Bucs pass rush on Sunday, but I think Kansas City’s edges at QB and head coach will be enough to have them win their second-straight Lombardi Trophy and cover the three-point spread.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

View picks from the entire consensus for Super Bowl LV >>

Q2. Are you more confident in picking the over or under and why?

Under: 56
“I’m not a totals bettor, but the under makes sense to me. The two teams playing in this game will be missing a combined four offensive linemen. With both defensive lines likely to win their matchups in the trenches, points might be hard to come by at times. The Chiefs scored just 10 points in the final three quarters in their first trip to Tampa earlier this year, and now they won’t have Eric Fisher. Unless there are some crazy defensive or special teams touchdowns, this game should go under the total.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

Over: 56
“I am more confident in picking the over in the big game. I think both offenses are more on point than the defenses, and the Bucs have injury issues in the secondary. I think the pass rush of Tampa Bay will give Mahomes issues at some points, especially due to the injuries KC has upfront. But KC could catch fire at any point in the game. I like the score to be around 31-27, which would make the over by two points.”
– Anthony Haage (SkullKing Sports)

Under: 56
“The total opened at 57.5 before being quickly bet down to 57, where I took a small position on the under. BettingPros has this line at 56 and I have this line at 55.5, where the total is now at a couple books. Bucs QB Tom Brady historically starts slowly in Super Bowls, and I expect to see the Bucs attack the Chiefs with their ground game, which should slow the contest down.”
– Matthew Freedman (Action Network)

Under: 56
“Betting an under in a game featuring Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady is terrifying, but that’s my lean here. I think Tampa tries to slow the game down with the run. And Kansas City’s offensive line injuries might be enough to prevent them from putting up 30+ in this one.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

Over: 56
“This is going to be a great game. The only concern for the over in this game is the potential for thunderstorms. Either way, this Super Bowl should be high scoring because these high-powered offenses are measurably better than the opposing defenses. Simply put, I’m betting on the over because these two teams have scored in abundance in almost every game they’ve played this season.”
– Tal Malachovsky (The Fantasy Scout)

View full set of consensus Over/Under picks here >>

Q3. Between the available game props and player props, which one are you most confident in and why?

“A game prop I like is Travis Kelce over 98.5 yards. I think the Bucs will try to hold Tyreek Hill (who could also reach the century mark easily) more than the first time they matched up and that will open up the middle of the field for Kelce. The last time they faced off, Kelce went for 82 yards, but he’s reached 100+ yards in four of his last six games.”
– Anthony Haage (SkullKing Sports)

“The surest bet in this game — the Chiefs will go extremely pass-heavy. They’re already one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the league, and teams passed on a league-high 65% of plays versus the Bucs this season. I expect Patrick Mahomes to throw it 45+ times in this one, which will be enough for him to hit the over on 28.5 completions.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

Chris Godwin is +3500 to win MVP. In two of Tom Brady’s six Super Bowl victories, a receiver of his was named MVP. Godwin’s odds are better than Mike Evans’, though I like both. There is some Brady fatigue among the media and fans, so if one of the receivers has a huge game, they could be named MVP.”
– Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

“There are lots of player props I like, and you can see them in The Action Network App. The game prop I like the most is under 11.5 penalties, since refs tend to swallow their whistles a little more in the playoffs. For instance, in the Conference Championships we saw just six and seven penalties.”
– Matthew Freedman (Action Network)

“I really like the odds of a Mike Evans touchdown to start the scoring bonanza in this game. He’s one of the most talented receivers in the NFL. Plus, it seems that Brady has made Evans his favorite target this season. I believe the Buccaneers will score first because, even if they don’t get the ball first, the Chiefs will be more conservative on their opening drive and the Buccaneers’ defense is top-notch. I also think Mike Evans is the one to be targeted in the end zone in their first drive.”
– Tal Malachovsky (The Fantasy Scout)

View our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet here >>


Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more thoughts on these two remaining teams.


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