Lately, there’s been a lot of buzz surrounding Davis Mills as we head into the 2021 NFL Draft. He’s only played 14 career games over three seasons, but NFL teams are reportedly intrigued by the incoming rookie QB.
Is there enough on tape to warrant the bullish predictions that he could go in the back end of the first round? Or should Mills be viewed more as a developmental QB?
These questions are answered here in our scouting profile on Davis Mills:
Weight: 225 lbs.
Arms: 31 3/8
Hands: 9 1/2
40-Yard Dash: 4.78
Vertical Jump: 32
Broad Jump: 110
3-Cone Drill: 6.96
Skills Breakdown (out of 100)
Accuracy (70.5): Mills is a developmental QB prospect that lacks the top-tier athleticism NFL teams will covet, but there’s enough there for an NFL team to take a look at him. He’s accurate in the short passing game when he’s able to take his 3-step or 5-step drop and get the ball out quickly. However, if that’s not there, his accuracy wavers due to his mechanics. He’s consistently sailing balls over the receivers’ heads or throwing behind them even in the short passing game.
Decision-Making (71.5): There are very few examples of questionable throws just simply due to the offense Stanford runs with Davis at QB. It’s predicated upon quick timing throws and allowing the QB not to think much. However, does show signs from time to time of putting the ball in harm’s way. Due to the offense structure, Davis is typically looking at his first read and firing it in there. He’s not looking to see if the window is even open but simply just letting it go. Will get him into trouble in the NFL.
Mental Processing (71): Wasn’t asked to process much at Stanford. He has a throw against Cal that he sees the Cover 1 safety cheat over but failed to recognize that he came back over, and he still let the ball go. He needs to improve his ability to quickly go through progressions while still maintaining his solid foundation and mechanics.
Arm Strength (77): Solid arm. He will be able to drive the ball from sideline to sideline. He lacks the strength on his touch throws, and they tend to be under-thrown. He needs to work on these throws deep downfield but has the pure arm strength to make it work in the NFL.
Pocket Presence (72.5): Tends to feel ghosts in the pocket if he’s held onto it past his first or second read and then gets to the check-down. Mechanics go haywire when this happens too. Could crumble under NFL pressure.
Mechanics (69): Consistently displays poor mechanics. His feet are leaving the ground, he’s often throwing from 9 and 3 rather than 12 and 6, and his hips aren’t tied to his arm with the release point. He needs to be cleaned up significantly before he can see the NFL field.
Improvisation (70): Very few examples of improvisation ability due to the structure of Stanford’s offense, but did show a decent ability to throw on the run when the pocket broke down.
Poise (69): Struggles in the face of pressure and tends to get rattled pretty easily.
Athleticism (72): Can move better than expected for a player of his size. He won’t be used as a runner at all in the NFL but does have enough movability to escape pressure momentarily. Overall, Mills is a significant project at the QB position. He’ll need to improve his mechanics and pocket presence significantly before he touches the NFL field. A Day 3 pick.
Getting buzz: Stanford QB Davis Mills.
*5 star recruit out of HS
*Top QB in ’17 recruiting class
*Red flag: Knee issues limited him to 11 college starts
*Pros: Showed poise, accuracy, drives ball downfield, etc
Likely day 2 pick – w/ developmental upside.pic.twitter.com/nLBc8TVSZk
– NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) April 16, 2021
“The @PFF guys say he has the quickest release in the Draft, his timing is impeccable, and he was once the number one recruit in high school football. Keep an eye on @StanfordFball Davis Mills. Teams like the dude. A lot.” — @PSchrags pic.twitter.com/6iCxbvn3Vd
– GMFB (@gmfb) April 16, 2021
They Said It
Projected Draft Range
Mills is a mystery right now due to the hype surrounding him compared to his play on the field and his injury history. An NFL team might take him on Day 2, but it would be a massive reach. Mills should go on Day 3 and be viewed as a significant project.
Ideal Fantasy Landing Spot
Since Mills has plenty to work on before he can see the NFL field, it’s impossible to project an ideal fantasy landing spot. He’s going to have to start his career as a backup.
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