5 Burning Questions For Week 9 (2021 Fantasy Football)

Remember to reach out with questions on Twitter (@toomuchtuma) anytime.

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1. Is Travis Kelce regressing?

The 32-year-old tight end entered 2021 as arguably the surest thing in the first round of fantasy football drafts. Through the season’s first three weeks, Kelce lived up to that billing, racking up 289 yards and three touchdowns. Since then, however, he has been more inconsistent, topping 65 yards receiving just once. Admittedly, some of his box score issues have been systemic of the Chiefs’ struggling offense as a whole. That isn’t helping, but there are a couple of disturbing trends in Kelce’s profile when you begin to look under the hood.

Worse, through those opening three games Kelce's yards per route run led all tight ends at 2.73. Since then he checks in at 1.22, so it's clear his hot start is helping that season-long data point. I'd be more willing to write this off as part of Kansas City's struggles if he wasn't being utilized so differently either. Average depth of target (ADOT) can be seen as an athleticism metric, such as how far down the field a pass catcher can create plays. As detailed above, Kelce is being used closer to the line of scrimmage this season.

Add in the fact that he's 32 and it's hard not to be a tad concerned with where his season is headed. To be clear, he's still the best bet at his position for fantasy football purposes. There will still be some monster games down the stretch. I just no longer believe he should have the valuation of a first-rounder. The top tier of tight ends are closer in ranking now than they were back in September.

2. What can we expect from the Titans without Derrick Henry?

Per Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy, the Titans haven't had a single game with a neutral pass rate over 51% since the start of the 2020 season. They're a run-first offense, and we knew that. The question now becomes how they approach things without "the Big Dog." The assumption of rational coaching would lead us to believe they'll become more pass-heavy, but what we don't know is by how much. Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols are going to do their best to replicate as much of Henry's production as they can, but there's about to be more on Ryan Tannehill's plate.

One thing is clear. This offense needs to keep utilizing play action. From Weeks 1-4 Tannehill used it on just 25% of his throws. Since then, that number has spiked to 34.7%, which is more in line with last year's 36% figure. This has helped the overall efficiency of the offense as Tannehill ranks first in the league in EPA per play during this span. The timing of the increased play action also aligns with A.J. Brown getting back on track, who sees 44% of his looks via the concept. I'd ultimately expect this passing attack to have more volume, but worse efficiency. The Rams present a tough Week 9 matchup.

3. Has Michael Pittman Jr. arrived?

Within the first half hour or so of Sunday's Week 8 early games, Pittman had already found the end zone twice. The sophomore receiver turned a career-high 15 targets into 10 receptions for 86 yards and the aforementioned two touchdowns. Meanwhile, T.Y. Hilton suffered a concussion and has already been ruled out for Thursday's Week 9 game against the Jets. Pittman has increased his YPRR (1.37 to 2.01) and his ADOT (8.7 to 11.8) in 2021. The Colts are treating him like an alpha wideout, which he is.

Michael Pittman turned into a complete WR this year. pic.twitter.com/FAOglcHMGZ

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 25, 2021

4. Is Cooper Kupp the No. 1 player in fantasy football?

I think so! What else is there to say about Matthew Stafford's breakfast-eating bestie? The Stafford-McVay pairing has been as fruitful for offensive scoring as we ever could've hoped for, and what is crazy is that Kupp's production seems sustainable, at least somewhat. Through eight games he's hogging a ridiculous 32% of the Rams' targets while registering a 9.5 ADOT. He has also been targeted on 32% of his routes with a 39% air yards share of the offense. What feels fluky is how hot he has been in the touchdown department, scoring 10 times in eight games so far. Everything else about the utilization profile is sustainable, however. There is an argument to be made for still valuing Dalvin Cook or Ezekiel Elliott over Kupp due to position scarcity, but you won't hear it from this writer.

5. Can we trust any Eagles running backs this week?

Miles Sanders remains sidelined. Most of the fantasy world expected Kenneth Gainwell to become the team's lead option, or at least Philadelphia's 1A, in Week 8 against the Lions. Somehow the offense totaled four rushing touchdowns and Gainwell didn't score any of them. Worse, 12 of his 13 touches came in the fourth quarter when they game became uncompetitive. The rookie is a change-of-pace RB who will need negative game script to return value. Consider him a RB4 in full-PPR.

While their game was competitive, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard were splitting touches in tandem. They both received 12 carries while finding the end zone twice apiece. Their Week 9 opponent, the Chargers, currently rank dead last in EPA per play against the rush. LA is arguably the best possible matchup for running backs in fantasy football. Unfortunately, Scott and Howard were splitting their work extremely evenly this past Sunday. We'll have to consider each of them as RB3s with capped upside in a plus draw.

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