Dynasty Rookie Prospect Profile: Brian Robinson Jr. (2022 Fantasy Football)

Brian Robinson Jr. finally got his opportunity to be the focal point of the Alabama backfield following Najee Harris‘s departure to the NFL. He took advantage of that opportunity in a significant way.

As a former four-star recruit who spent time buried on the running back depth chart behind the likes of the Najee Harris, Damien Harris, and Josh Jacobs, Robinson Jr. is a thick, powerful runner and is capable of handling the lion’s share of rushing work in the backfield of whichever NFL team selects him.

Brian Robinson Jr. 2022 NFL Draft Profile

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Brian Robinson Jr. College Statistics

Brian Robinson Jr. Dynasty Fantasy Analysis

While Robinson Jr. may not have the tantalizing upside that some of his peers offer in the 2022 NFL Draft, he's a sturdy back capable of shouldering a significant workload. NFL teams will covet his strength and physicality. He's rarely brought down by the first tackler and is slightly more elusive than he often gets credit for. Draft capital and landing spot will be huge factors in where he should be selected in rookie drafts. He is the prime example of a running back who will likely be selected in the second or third round of rookie drafts, and he has a real chance of outperforming that draft capital.

Outside of the top three or four options at the running back position, there are many players who will likely be lumped together in similar tiers. You're left with a proposition once the top players at the running back position have been selected in rookie drafts. Are you selecting a running back you expect to command most of their fantasy relevance through receiving work? Or would you rather bet on someone with the size profile to handle early-down work in the NFL? There is a legitimate thought process for either side. We know how valuable running backs who contribute in the receiving game can be, and that's why any improvement as a receiver for Robinson Jr. was significant this past season.

2021 was Robinson's best season yet as a receiver. While he won't ever be mistaken for prospects who are true difference makers in the receiving game, (such as Arizona State's Rachaad White), the fact that Robinson Jr. was able to chip in 35 receptions for almost 300 yards receiving shows he can be relied on as a check-down option. Combine that with the fact that he is solid in pass protection, and there is a legitimate path for him to stay on the field for some third-down work.

That's the difference between Brian Robinson Jr. and some of the other running backs set to go in a similar range of rookie drafts, such as Tyler Badie or James Cook. While both of those players offer immense upside in the receiving game, it's unlikely either one carves out a significant role as a lead rusher for their respective NFL teams.

There's typically a narrative surrounding Crimson Tide players about the wear and tear their bodies have sustained, especially those who have not declared early for the NFL draft, but 2021 was the only season that saw Robinson Jr. receive more than 100 carries.

His faster than expected 40-yard dash time (4.53) helped quiet some concerns over his long speed, although he will never be mistaken for one of the most explosive runners in this class. What he lacks in actual explosive ability, he makes up for with prototypical size, excellent strength and physicality, and excellent patience and vision to hit the hole. In addition, he flashes a nice jump cut in the open field, which will continue to help him at the next level. Finally, his sound pass protection and ability to contribute as a check-down option should alleviate some concerns about him only ever being a two-down runner.

Before the NFL Draft, I would feel comfortable selecting him from the middle of the second round of rookie drafts. Currently, I have him projected as an early day three pick in the NFL Draft, but there is a strong chance based on college pedigree that an NFL team selects him anywhere from the late second round on. If he can secure day two draft capital, there's a real argument for him as an early second-round rookie pick.

Player Comparison - Chris Carson

Strength, physicality, and toughness are easy traits to identify in Chris Carson and Brian Robinson Jr. The ceiling as a receiver is likely similar to what we've seen from Carson over the years. Carson's career-high in targets is 47, and I feel confident projecting Robinson Jr. to hit marks near there eventually. I believe he is a player who can regularly handle between 30 and 40 targets per season in the receiving game.

While that might not be the same eye-popping numbers other running back prospects could eventually hit, he more than makes up for it with his strong, durable running style, like Carson. He regularly bounces off would-be tacklers and can easily find himself as either the leader of a committee or eventually entrusted with three-down duties in the right scenario. Plan on taking Robinson Jr. in the second round of rookie drafts with confidence, and be willing to pivot and even select him early on in round two if he lands in an ideal spot.

Landing Spot and Dynasty Outlook

With Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic both not slated to become free agents until 2024, Brian Robinson has his short-term path to work blocked. If Gibson gets hurt or falters, Robinson is waiting in the wings to pair with the Commander's dump-off assassin. The third-round draft capital is encouraging and gives us insight into what they think about Gibson, but this could easily be a situation where he's a handcuff until 2024.