Every NFL Draft cycle, a select few get to breathe in the scenic views as their draft stock rises like a helium balloon. This year Christian Watson finds himself squarely among that contingent. After an outstanding showing at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, which we’ll discuss further later in this writeup, and his blazing combine (4.36 40-yard dash, 98th percentile speed score, 95th percentile burst score), Watson is getting first-round buzz. The growing hum that he’s generated is well deserved.
Watson leaves North Dakota State with a quietly dominant profile. Do the stat lines scream off the paper at first glance? No, but this is also a result of the run-first offense he was confined by. Watson never saw more than 62 targets in any season, but his deeper metrics speak louder than raw volume stats. Since 2019 he has garnered target shares of 18.8%, 24.4%, and 24.1%. Over the last three seasons, if we compare his Yards per route run among the realm of FBS wide receivers with 50 or more targets, his numbers pop. Yes, we should contextualize for competition level and the fact that he only drew 46 targets in one of those seasons, but his results are outstanding. Among FBS wide receivers in this volume sample (minimum 50 targets), he would have ranked 28th, 25th, and first in Yards per route run in each season. He wraps up his collegiate resume with a 90th percentile (44.0%, per Playerprofiler.com) college dominator and an 89th percentile yards per reception (18.6). As a future top 50 pick (at the very least) in the NFL Draft, let’s discuss how his intangibles will translate to a pro offense.
Every NFL Draft cycle, a select few get to breathe in the scenic views as their draft stock rises like a helium balloon. This year Christian Watson finds himself squarely among that contingent. After an outstanding showing at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, which we’ll discuss further later in this writeup, and his blazing combine (4.36 40-yard dash, 98th percentile speed score, 95th percentile burst score), Watson is getting first-round buzz. The growing hum that he’s generated is well deserved.
Watson leaves North Dakota State with a quietly dominant profile. Do the stat lines scream off the paper at first glance? No, but this is also a result of the run-first offense he was confined by. Watson never saw more than 62 targets in any season, but his deeper metrics speak louder than raw volume stats. Since 2019 he has garnered target shares of 18.8%, 24.4%, and 24.1%. Over the last three seasons, if we compare his Yards per route run among the realm of FBS wide receivers with 50 or more targets, his numbers pop. Yes, we should contextualize for competition level and the fact that he only drew 46 targets in one of those seasons, but his results are outstanding. Among FBS wide receivers in this volume sample (minimum 50 targets), he would have ranked 28th, 25th, and first in Yards per route run in each season. He wraps up his collegiate resume with a 90th percentile (44.0%, per Playerprofiler.com) college dominator and an 89th percentile yards per reception (18.6). As a future top 50 pick (at the very least) in the NFL Draft, let’s discuss how his intangibles will translate to a pro offense.
Christian Watson Draft Profile
| Position |
WR |
| School |
North Dakota State |
| Height |
6’4″ |
| Weight |
208 |
| 40-Yard Dash |
4.36 |
| 2021 Age |
22 |
| Class |
SR |
| Recruit. Stars |
– |
2022 NFL Draft Projected Round: 1/2
Christian Watson College Statistics
| Year |
Games played |
Targets (Target %) |
Receptions |
Receiving Yards |
Yards per Reception |
Catch Rate |
Receiving Touchdowns |
| 2018 |
14 |
15 (5.1%) |
9 |
165 |
18.3 |
60.0% |
0 |
| 2019 |
16 |
57 (18.8%) |
34 |
732 |
21.5 |
59.6% |
6 |
| 2020 |
8 |
46 (24.4%) |
18 |
437 |
24.3 |
39.1% |
1 |
| 2021 |
12 |
62 (24.1%) |
43 |
801 |
18.6 |
69.4% |
7 |
Christian Watson Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
As soon as you flip on Christian Watson’s film, you automatically see that the testing speed is real. What he can do with his lightning-fast legs adds a wow factor to several plays. Whether he’s taking deep targets or handoffs to the house, he’s a big-play threat anytime the ball is in his hands. North Dakota State’s coaching staff knew this and tried to get the ball to him any way they could. They lined him up in the backfield (4.1% of his snaps in 2021, per PFF) and used him on jet sweeps, screens, wheel routes, etc. Don’t think that NFL offensive coordinators won’t do the same thing to ease his small school transition.
| Among FBS wide receivers with 50 or more targets (*Statistics referenced per PFF): |
| Year |
Formation alignment Slot / Wide |
Yards per route run (Rank)* |
YAC / reception |
| 2019 |
10.4% / 89.6% |
2.86 (28th of 290)** |
10.1 (12th) |
| 2020 |
33.3% / 64.9% |
2.70 (25th of 146) |
8.3 (7th) |
| 2021 |
12.8% / 83.1% |
4.33 (1st of 251) |
8.0 (17th) |
*Yprr ranks compared against FBS WRs
**Only 46 targets
Since 2019, he’s been lethal after the catch. In these instances, he’s manufactured explosive plays with speed, yes, but his vision and change of direction ability in traffic have also been exquisite. His testing numbers at the combine also reflected this, as he finished with a 97th percentile short shuttle. Stacking his FCS numbers against FBS receivers with 50 or more targets, he would have ranked inside the top 20 in yards after the catch per reception in the last three seasons. Easy completions for significant gains are a welcome addition to any offense.
While his route running still does need refinement, he showed at Senior Bowl practices that he’s not as raw as many think. In 1-on-1 drills, he was nearly unguardable. His quick feet, release variations, and upper body strength led to easy separation. This boots-on-the-ground first-person recollection gave me a better understanding of his skills in this area that didn’t necessarily translate from his game tape.
Watson makes sizable contributions even when he isn’t the focus of the offensive play. He’s a tenacious and physical run blocker. This won’t show up in the box score weekly, but it’ll endear him to any coaching staff. His play strength can be seen here as he has no issues securing and anchoring his marks.
Watson’s highlight reels are littered with deep plays, but when the in-game consistency with deep ball tracking still must be honed. While 64.2% of his receiving touchdowns at North Dakota State were on 20+ yard targets, he also accumulated 37.5% of his drops on those downfield shots. Since 2018 he dropped 10.1% of his deep targets. He’s got to clean this up, or he’ll leave yards on the field yearly.
Another area he will need to hone during his NFL career is his strength at the catch point. He wasn’t used above the rim for a receiver with his size and 91st percentile vertical jump. The vast majority of his big plays are moments when he burnt a corner to a crisp on a deep route, but you rarely see on film back shoulder or jump balls tossed in his direction. This could be a result of their offensive design, the quarterback play, 30.0% contested catch rate (per PFF), or all of these factors.
Yes, Watson will have a sizable learning curve with the step up in competition. Considering what he showed at the Senior Bowl and his mouth-watering physical traits, it’s a call to action that he’s prepared to answer.
Player Comp – Martavis Bryant
While Bryant’s career was a screaming comet that was gone as quickly as it appeared, that doesn’t take away what he was able to accomplish, especially in his first two seasons. Before missing the 2016 season, he racked up seasons with 6.9 and 6.7 (per PFF) YAC per reception and 2.18 and 2.51 Yards per route run. If Watson can harness his ability consistently, we’ll enjoy his game-breaking ability for longer than four trips around the sun.
Landing Spot and Dynasty Outlook
Senior Bowl standout and combine phenom Christian Watson is officially a cheesehead filling a glaring need for Packer nation at receiver. Watson’s small school and non-early declare status is problematic, but the talent and opportunity are there for him to explode. Watson is competing with Allen Lazard, the Lizard King, Randall Cobb, fourth-round pick Romeo Doubs, and a laundry list of depth chart filler for targets. He’s a moonshot home run swing worth taking in the mid to late first round of drafts tied to a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers.
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Derek Brown is a fantasy analyst at FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @dbro_ffb.
