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Dynasty Rookie Prospect Profile: Christian Watson (2022 Fantasy Football)

Dynasty Rookie Prospect Profile: Christian Watson (2022 Fantasy Football)

Every NFL Draft cycle, a select few get to breathe in the scenic views as their draft stock rises like a helium balloon. This year Christian Watson finds himself squarely among that contingent. After an outstanding showing at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama, which we’ll discuss further later in this writeup, and his blazing combine (4.36 40-yard dash, 98th percentile speed score, 95th percentile burst score), Watson is getting first-round buzz. The growing hum that he’s generated is well deserved.

Watson leaves North Dakota State with a quietly dominant profile. Do the stat lines scream off the paper at first glance? No, but this is also a result of the run-first offense he was confined by. Watson never saw more than 62 targets in any season, but his deeper metrics speak louder than raw volume stats. Since 2019 he has garnered target shares of 18.8%, 24.4%, and 24.1%. Over the last three seasons, if we compare his Yards per route run among the realm of FBS wide receivers with 50 or more targets, his numbers pop. Yes, we should contextualize for competition level and the fact that he only drew 46 targets in one of those seasons, but his results are outstanding. Among FBS wide receivers in this volume sample (minimum 50 targets), he would have ranked 28th, 25th, and first in Yards per route run in each season. He wraps up his collegiate resume with a 90th percentile (44.0%, per Playerprofiler.com) college dominator and an 89th percentile yards per reception (18.6). As a future top 50 pick (at the very least) in the NFL Draft, let’s discuss how his intangibles will translate to a pro offense.

 

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