Dynasty Rookie Prospect Profile: Matt Corral (2022 Fantasy Football)

Matt Corral was a highly touted four-star high school prospect. Per 247Sports, he was the 63rd ranked player in the nation after his senior year and ninth-best in the state of California. Before ultimately choosing Ole Miss, he was courted by Alabama, Georgia, and Michigan, among others. Over the last two seasons, he has thrived in Lane Kiffin’s up-tempo and RPO-heavy scheme. In 2020 he was a finalist for the Manning Award, and last year he finished seventh in the Heisman voting.

Corral offers a team some dual-threat ability with his passing and rushing skills. He has rushed for at least 506 yards on the ground over the last two seasons. Unfortunately, the propensity to use his legs has also led to some injuries along the way, with banged-up ribs (2019) and a high ankle sprain (2021). Projecting him to the NFL is a layered process, but he’s still garnering first-round buzz as teams are intrigued by his upside.

Matt Corral Draft Profile

* Recruit stars via 247Sports

Matt Corral College Statistics

Matt Corral Dynasty Fantasy Analysis

Matt Corral processes information quickly and is an accurate quarterback. Over the last two years, he bucked his rocky 2019 season with top 20 finishes in adjusted completion rate. He’s also reeled in the iffy plays more and more, dropping his turnover-worthy play rate each year, ranking third among the signal-callers sampled in 2021. However, this came at a cost, as his big-time throw rate also dropped to his previous 2019 levels after sitting at 20th in 2020.

Corral’s yearning to play more under control and push the ball less can be seen in his aDOT (average depth of target) and deep passing rate from 2020 to 2021. Last year his aDOT (8.5) was 104th out of 124 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. In the two previous seasons, he ranked 15th (10.9) and 37th (10.2) in aDOT. In 2021 he finished with the lowest deep passing rate of the last three years (13.3%), which ranked 114th of 140 quarterbacks (minimum 200 dropbacks, per PFF). So, which version of Corral will we see in the NFL? A quarterback willing to risk it more for the biscuit or a safety-prone check-down artist?

In Corral’s defense, losing Elijah Moore and Kenny Yeboah from the 2020 squad could have played a role as the passing attack leaned on Dontario Drummond and Braylon Sanders last year. However, another factor at play could be Corral further understanding his strengths. Outside of 2020, he has finished outside the top 60 in deep completion rate in two of three seasons while excelling (third, 17th) with his accuracy in the 10-19 yard range. Corral has plenty of arm strength to toss it deep, but he intermittently puts too much mustard on the ball leading him to overthrow his intended downfield receiver. However, he has the requisite arm power to hit boundary throws and deep-outs.

Corral peppers the short and intermediate areas of the field well with a quick release. The Ole Miss offense was heavily RPO (run-pass option) and first read dependent, but he does exhibit the ability to go through a progression. He will quickly cycle from one to two, but he needs to make it to three more often in the NFL. Corral intentionally keeps his eyes downfield when navigating the pocket and in the face of pressure. By the time he looks at his secondary option, he’s already considering pulling it down and running with the ball. Corral shows off decent acceleration and vision as a ball carrier, but he takes too many big hits. He needs to make a concentrated effort to slide or duck out of bounds more, or he’s going to get pummeled in the NFL.

When he’s zipping around outside of the pocket looking for an open receiver, his accuracy does take a hit. He’ll sail or bounce many throws while scrambling around. He also shows accuracy lapses when trying to get the ball out immediately to short area routes. Corral must improve his consistency with leading receivers and hitting them in stride. The dip in precision is palpable when his mechanics are altered because of timing or pressure.

Corral possesses an interesting skill set that offers league-average to slightly above starter potential. While his raw traits don’t scream franchise changer, he could be quite serviceable if he lands in an offense that eases him into the flow of full feel reads and highlights the strengths currently in his game.

Matt Corral Comp – Andy Dalton

Andy Dalton is a near-size and speed clone of Matt Corral. It’s easy to forget that Dalton rushed for at least 430 yards in each of his final three years at TCU. Corral, like Dalton, could be a playoff-level quarterback with the right scheme and supporting cast around him.

Landing Spot and Dynasty Outlook

Among the quarterbacks drafted in the third round in the NFL Draft, Matt Corral could have the easiest path to playing time in year one. Sam Darnold flopped as a reclamation project last season in Carolina. Matt Rhule is firmly parked on the hot seat at the moment. At best, rolling it back with Darnold in 2022 feels like a shaky proposition. Rhule needs this team to take a step forward and possibly contend (or make) for the playoffs to add some length to his leash. Corral has his question marks with erratic deep accuracy and residing from an RPO and first read-heavy scheme at Ole Miss. If he can show even a glimmer of promise in camp or the preseason, Corral could be under center Week 1 instead of the long-time Ghostbuster’s intern, Darnold.

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