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Pitcher xERA, xFIP, SIERA Leaders: Pablo Lopez, Kevin Gausman, Paul Blackburn (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

by Mike Maher | @mikeMaher | Featured Writer
May 15, 2022

Over the last several years, advanced statistics have found a bigger home in both “real life” baseball and fantasy baseball. Just as MLB organizations want to evaluate all of the available data in order to gain whatever edge they can, fantasy managers are trying to do the same thing. Some of the most valuable statistics are so-called “expected statistics” that attempt to “normalize” the data by removing certain factors that are outside of a player’s control.

For pitchers, there are a handful of expected numbers that attempt to normalize ERA. A pitcher’s ERA can be a bit fluky, especially in smaller sample sizes, and expected statistics like xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA attempt to quantify a pitcher’s true performance by eliminating factors the pitcher can’t control.

Below are the ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA numbers for every qualifying pitcher through today’s date.

FantasyPros My Playbook

Name Team ERA xERA FIP xFIP SIERA
Pablo Lopez MIA 1.05 2.34 2.15 2.64 2.77
Zac Gallen ARI 1.05 1.85 2.25 3.40 2.90
Miles Mikolas STL 1.49 2.55 2.98 3.74 3.78
Justin Verlander HOU 1.55 2.80 3.15 3.26 3.15
Paul Blackburn OAK 1.67 2.93 2.33 2.88 3.19
Merrill Kelly ARI 1.71 3.38 2.48 3.39 3.59
Alek Manoah TOR 1.75 2.47 3.26 3.72 3.44
Corbin Burnes MIL 1.77 2.87 2.99 2.38 2.29
Carlos Rodon SFG 1.80 2.01 1.21 2.37 2.25
Joe Musgrove SDP 2.08 2.45 2.40 2.72 2.71
Martin Perez TEX 2.10 2.32 2.57 3.83 3.82
Logan Gilbert SEA 2.13 3.55 3.12 3.34 3.43
Chris Bassitt NYM 2.34 2.99 3.38 3.53 3.22
Kevin Gausman TOR 2.40 2.49 0.86 2.12 2.21
Shane McClanahan TBR 2.52 2.47 2.67 1.66 1.86
Eric Lauer MIL 2.60 3.22 3.61 2.51 2.33
Max Scherzer NYM 2.66 2.70 3.05 2.99 2.65
Brad Keller KCR 2.70 3.33 4.08 3.95 4.22
Bruce Zimmermann BAL 2.72 4.14 3.34 3.76 3.76
Sandy Alcantara MIA 2.74 2.95 4.08 4.00 4.22
Walker Buehler LAD 2.81 3.67 3.24 3.70 3.77
Chad Kuhl COL 2.88 3.08 3.56 3.68 3.92
Framber Valdez HOU 2.93 3.22 3.35 3.29 3.28
Gerrit Cole NYY 2.95 3.17 3.45 2.82 2.94
Julio Urias LAD 3.00 3.08 4.96 4.34 4.26
Kyle Wright ATL 3.03 3.22 2.73 3.10 3.07
Jordan Montgomery NYY 3.06 3.52 3.60 3.76 3.70
Dakota Hudson STL 3.06 5.34 5.08 4.83 5.01
Max Fried ATL 3.14 3.47 2.84 2.67 2.81
Nathan Eovaldi BOS 3.15 4.23 4.55 3.04 3.04
Adam Wainwright STL 3.18 3.60 3.39 3.62 3.86
Carlos Carrasco NYM 3.19 3.31 3.04 3.30 3.35
Logan Webb SFG 3.48 3.22 2.95 3.59 3.76
Zack Greinke KCR 3.52 5.27 3.46 4.72 4.99
Dylan Cease CHW 3.55 2.00 2.36 2.54 2.53
Zach Davies ARI 3.57 3.64 3.92 4.07 4.38
Shane Bieber CLE 3.72 4.34 3.61 3.70 3.80
Eduardo Rodriguez DET 3.72 3.55 3.87 4.13 4.21
Ranger Suarez PHI 3.72 4.43 4.53 4.08 4.28
Sean Manaea SDP 3.77 3.24 3.29 3.22 3.17
Frankie Montas OAK 3.77 2.97 3.63 3.32 3.43
Aaron Nola PHI 3.83 2.47 3.47 2.64 2.54
Cal Quantrill CLE 3.93 4.55 4.11 4.93 5.23
Kyle Hendricks CHC 4.03 4.70 4.65 4.59 4.55
Dane Dunning TEX 4.06 4.01 3.31 3.28 3.53
Kyle Gibson PHI 4.10 3.50 3.95 3.68 3.95
Robbie Ray SEA 4.22 3.62 4.15 3.91 3.84
Chris Flexen SEA 4.24 5.14 4.62 4.54 4.64
Josiah Gray WSN 4.34 4.88 5.43 4.41 4.26
Austin Gomber COL 4.36 4.37 3.85 3.50 3.73
Jordan Lyles BAL 4.38 4.85 4.46 4.17 4.26
Yu Darvish SDP 4.62 3.90 3.82 4.04 4.03
Zach Plesac CLE 4.68 5.73 4.90 4.77 4.83
Kyle Freeland COL 4.91 4.58 4.27 4.07 4.17
Charlie Morton ATL 4.93 4.61 4.31 4.82 4.57
Nick Pivetta BOS 5.08 5.41 4.04 4.02 4.08
Jose Berrios TOR 5.82 7.34 5.15 4.80 4.74
Tyler Mahle CIN 5.89 3.55 3.48 4.14 4.05
German Marquez COL 6.16 4.85 4.78 3.56 3.76

Since I can’t help myself and am a total nerd, I created my own metric for expected pitching statistics. I call it MAHERA (clever, I know), and it’s a weighted arithmetic mean of ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. Note that, as I just mentioned, it does include a pitcher’s actual ERA (although it is weighed less than the other four numbers) and not only the expected numbers. The table below is sortable and searchable and includes all of the aforementioned numbers. The default sorting is by MAHERA.

MLB DFS Lineup Optimizer


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Mike Maher is an editor and content manager at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blogThe Birds Blitz.

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