It’s important to factor in different perspectives of players as you prepare for your fantasy football draft. We’ll do just that today as we debate the prospects of Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.
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The Case For Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson had a season to forget in 2021, as he dealt with a plethora of injuries/illnesses and regressed immensely as a passer. Two key metrics at PFF that are important to analyze for QBs are performance in a clean pocket and throwing at the intermediate level.
Jackson ranked 28th in passer rating from a clean pocket (90.4) and 22nd in PFF passing grade at the intermediate level (70.0). Despite all his shortcomings as a passer, Jackson still finished the season second in expected fantasy points per game (23.8) and seventh in fantasy points per game (21.3).
His expected fantasy point per game output marked the highest of his career thanks to the Ravens’ willingness to throw more in 2021. From 2019-2020, Jackson had 37 or more passing attempts in a game only four times. He did so five times in 2021, with Baltimore throwing at a 60% clip.
However, I would not anticipate the pass-heavy approach to continue into 2022. Their philosophical change on offense was forced out of necessity based on the injuries. But a lack of passing doesn’t impact Jackson the way it does most other QBs with his greatest fantasy asset being his legs.
Jackson may never recapture his 2019 rare MVP form when he averaged north of 28 fantasy points per game, but a 22-point per game average seems like his norm based on his last two years of fantasy production. In 2020, he led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback. That cements him as a clear-cut top-5 fantasy QB.
The Case Against Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson is QB4 in ADP, ranking 49th overall. Obviously, the electrifying quarterback isn’t in any danger of losing his starting job. However, it’s easy to understand some of the team’s offseason transactions that suggest pivoting back to a more run-heavy attack in 2022.
Jackson’s touchdown, interception and sack rates have all gone in the wrong direction since his 2019 NFL MVP campaign. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, out of 33 qualified quarterbacks, Jackson was 20th in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (5.78 ANY/A). Perhaps, swinging the pendulum back to a more run-heavy approach will help Jackson’s efficiency. Still, a top-50 pick seems steep for Jackson. Sure, his rushing ability elevates his floor and ceiling. However, other dual-threat quarterbacks are coming off more impressive passing campaigns. Kyler Murray is a more attractive option with arguably a higher ceiling, and Hurts is an enticing option at a more affordable ADP.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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