Riskiest Players on Each NFL Team (2022 Fantasy Football)

It’s impossible to get through a fantasy football draft without taking at least a few risks, but not all risks are created equally. An early-round risk on J.K. Dobbins is not the same as a mid-round gamble on Garrett Wilson. Knowing when to take risks and when to play it safe can be the difference between winning your fantasy football league and ending up on the wrong end of a Waffle House Challenge.

Our analysts combed through the NFL rosters and identified the riskiest players on every team. The results and accompanying justifications are below.

Previously, our analysts took a look at the most overrated and underrated players, the top rookies, the top breakout candidates on each NFL team, and more:

• Most Overrated Player on Each Team
• Most Underrated Player on Each Team
• Top Rookie on Each NFL Team
• Top Breakout Candidates on Each NFL Team
• Safest Pick on Each NFL Team
• NFL Head Coach & Staff Consensus Rankings
• Biggest Question for Each NFL Team
• NFL Offense Consensus Rankings
• Bold Predictions for Each NFL Team
• Most Polarizing Players on Each NFL Team

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills
James Cook’s real-life impact on the Bills offense may not turn into the fantasy impact many are hoping for. Devin Singletary is a trusted veteran and isn’t going away.
– Andrew Erickson

Miami Dolphins
Mike Gesicki has played from the slot throughout his entire NFL career but will be tasked with in-line blocking duties more than ever in a Mike McDaniel-led Dolphins offense. What could go wrong?
– Andrew Erickson

New England Patriots
There is a major risk that Damien Harris will be used in a split that favors second-year back Rhamondre Stevenson in 2022. Stevenson (93) and Harris (86) split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s remaining seven games. Stevenson is also the favorite to see an expanded role as a receiver, making Harris super dependent on production from TDs.
– Andrew Erickson

New York Jets
WR Garrett Wilson will need to rely on QB Zach Wilson, who has underwhelmed to this point in his career, and he’s likely to play behind second-year WR Elijah Moore, who flashed last season (34-459-5 receiving on 51 targets in final six games). On top of that, veteran WR Corey Davis will push Wilson for snaps and targets, slot receiver Braxton Berrios seems likely to steal snaps based on his preseason usage and the Jets offense will likely lean on the running game. It’s not hard to see how his circumstances make him risky at his ADP.
– Matthew Freedman

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
Even as the “healthier” of the two Ravens top RBs, J.K. Dobbins’ activation off the PUP also doesn’t mean he is 100% healthy. Nor does it mean he will be as effective as a rusher as he was when he last played averaging 6.0 yards per carry – an extremely high standard. It’s just hard to maintain that pristine level of efficiency year over year, let alone do it after suffering a multi-ligament knee injury. Best temper expectations on Dobbins out the gates – even with Gus Edwards also sidelined.
– Andrew Erickson

Cincinnati Bengals
Drafting a QB top-6 who doesn’t add a ton of value with his legs is inherently risky. Joe Burrow was a top-12 QB last season in just 50% of his games.
– Andrew Erickson

Cleveland Browns
Amari Cooper is soaked to the bone in risk. Even if you negate the quarterback position, Cooper is a declining veteran who has never been a high-end target earner. Since 2017 Cooper has never finished higher than 28th in target per route run rate. The risks outweigh the benefits with declining peripherals and the inability to command a target share that can dissuade quarterback and efficiency worries.
– Derek Brown

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have a three-way quarterback battle for the Week 1 starting job, WR Diontae Johnson is an established target hog within the offense and rookie WR George Pickens has flashed in training camp and the preseason and has a skill set that overlaps with Chase Claypool’s. The offense might be bad, and Claypool might see fewer targets than he did last year.
– Matthew Freedman

AFC South

Houston Texans
Rookie RB Dameon Pierce balled out in Week 1 (5-49-0 rushing) of the preseason and then got to rest in Week 2 while veterans Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead played. That indicates that Pierce could be the starter entering the regular season … but the offense is likely to be average at best, and Mack and Burkhead will likely still see consistent usage. Pierce has real upside but unplayable downside.
– Matthew Freedman

Indianapolis Colts
There are only two Colts commanding the sort of draft capital that constitutes true “risk”: Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman. Taylor has proven over two seasons that he’s an extraordinary player. Pittman appears to be on the cusp of big things, but he still has things to prove. I’m confident enough in Pittman to take him just inside the top 25 overall, but we should at least acknowledge the possibility that last year’s WR17 in PPR fantasy scoring isn’t ready to ascend to WR1 status.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Jacksonville Jaguars
We all want Travis Etienne Jr. to be a fantasy force in 2022, but James Robinson’s miraculous return from a December Achilles injury could put a damper on ETN’s Year 2 breakout — especially when you have to draft him in Round 3.
– Andrew Erickson

Tennessee Titans
Last year was the first season where Derrick Henry couldn’t hold up to his elite workload. He also finished outside the top-5 in rushing yards over expectation per attempt for the first time since 2018. Ergo, his volume has nowhere to go but down and he’s showing signs of dependency on his offensive situation more than ever. And that’s not ideal for the 28-year old coming off a foot injury that doesn’t catch passes in an offense primed for regression, who is drafted inside the top-5 overall.
– Andrew Erickson

AFC West

Denver Broncos
The fervor for Courtland Sutton has reached such a high boil that he sometimes goes in the early third round of 12-team drafts. Last year, after fellow Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy came back from a high-ankle sprain that had kept him sidelined for over a month, Sutton averaged 4.0 targets, 2.0 catches, 23.7 yards and a Bluto Blutarsky-like 0.0 touchdowns over his final 10 games. And we’re 100% convinced Sutton is going to be an alpha receiver for Denver this year?
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Kansas City Chiefs
JuJu Smith-Schuster certainly has the upside to become a WR1 in the Chiefs offense, but he failed in that task in Pittsburgh and has dealt with a myriad of injuries the last few years.
– Joe Pisapia

Las Vegas Raiders
The arrival of WV Davante Adams is bound to put a dent in Darren Waller’s target total. Waller is now entering his age-30 season, and after dealing with knee issues that forced him to miss six games last season, he’s had a hamstring issue in training camp. Waller topped the 1,100-yard mark in 2019 and 2020, but it seems unlikely he gets anywhere close to that yardage total in 2022.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Los Angeles Chargers
WR Keenan Allen is being drafted in the top 12 at his position (per our ADP tool), but he has slowed down over the past three years (8.4 yards per target in 2013-19; 7.0 yards per target, 2020-21), and last year he was straight-up outproduced by No. 2 WR Mike Williams (1,146 yards, 9 TDs vs. 1,138 and 6). Given his decline in efficiency and the target competition he has in Williams, second-year WR Joshua Palmer, RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett, Allen could have his worst season since 2017. 
– Matthew Freedman

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
I was the lone analyst sounding the alarm on Ezekiel Elliott last year, so I’m back to do it again. He’s a fine RB2 investment, but the downside is real and the fear of breakdown should be built into your bench RB selections.
– Joe Pisapia

New York Giants
Kenny Golladay is almost too dusty to put in the riskiest column. Golladay is almost assuredly dust to the point where it’s a certainty. With his 2022 preseason confirming what we saw last year, Golladay could be the first coffin nail for your fantasy team leaving the draft.
– Derek Brown

Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders’ risk has been magnified during training camp. While he’s a positive regression candidate in the touchdown department, the bounce back might not be as high as is needed for him to be a worthwhile pick in fantasy. Kenneth Gainwell has been lighting up the rumor mill with whispers he could garner the money touches near paydirt that we clamor for. If this comes to fruition, the risk volume for Sanders will be kicked up to 11.
– Derek Brown

Washington Commanders
Antonio Gibson carries significant downside in 2022 despite opening his career with back-to-back seasons of 1,000-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns from scrimmage. He possesses a true three-down skill set, but the Commanders seem more desirous than ever to limit Gibson’s workload after he played last year with an assortment of lower-body injuries (hip, turf toe, shin). Even though they had Jaret Patterson, Wendell Smallwood and Jonathan Williams on the roster, the Commanders went out of their way this offseason to re-sign J.D. McKissic (who had already agreed to a deal with the Bills) and to invest a top-100 pick into Brian Robinson. With McKissic stealing targets and Robinson challenging for goal-line touches, short-yardage work and rotational series, Gibson could turn into a low-ceiling, low-floor between-the-20s committee back — and he might even lose his starting job, based on how he was used in Week 1 of the preseason after fumbling.
– Matthew Freedman

NFC North

Chicago Bears
David Montgomery *seems* like a safe pick after averaging 19.0 touches and 84.8 yards from scrimmage per game over his first three NFL seasons, but the Bears’ new coaching staff is dropping hints that it plans to go with an RB-by-committee approach this season. One of those hints: Montgomery has been getting special teams reps in training camp. Second-year backup Khalil Herbert and sixth-round rookie Trestan Ebner are pushing Montgomery for playing time, and the Bears’ offense is probably going to be bad, which means there won’t be many TDs to go around.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson has had injury issues and is now in a Lions WR room far more talented than in years past. His target share could shrink as the offense continues to evolve.
– Joe Pisapia

Green Bay Packers
Over the final eight regular-season games that Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon played together last season, Dillon averaged 13.8 carries a game while Jones averaged 10.3. The Packers also used Dillon at the goal line more frequently late in the year. There’s still a lot to like about Jones — particularly the promise of greater usage in the passing game now that WR Davante Adams has left Green Bay — but there’s certainly some risk in drafting a time-share RB in the second round.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

Minnesota Vikings
WR Adam Thielen has been a touchdown-reliant producer over the past two years, but scoring and red-zone usage can be inconsistent for receivers, and Thielen will be 32 years old when the season starts. With No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson still ascending and No. 3 WR K.J. Osborn slated to see more playing time overall, Thielen could regress within the offense.
– Matthew Freedman

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons
Age and added competition for targets and red zone work leave Cordarrelle Patterson as risky business in fantasy football. Kyle Pitts and Drake London should swallow up massive target shares through the air. Tyler Allgeier and Damien Williams could siphon off carries. The flashing red risk alarm shouldn’t be ignored here.
– Derek Brown

Carolina Panthers
Sure, Christian McCaffrey has 1.01 overall upside. No one doubts that. But he’s crushed fantasy dreams two straight years and the potential fallout is real. The CMC frame was ALWAYS a potential issue, and now that these concerns have come to light no one seems to remember. Selective memory is dangerous.
– Joe Pisapia

New Orleans Saints
All the positive camp reports can’t replace seeing Michael Thomas lining up against NFL secondaries in the regular season. Even if health complies, we are still making small (maybe large) leaps of faith, expecting the same player from yesteryear to come screaming into 2022.
– Derek Brown

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans has topped the 1,000-yard mark in all eight of his NFL seasons, and he’s scored 27 TDs over the last two years. Where’s the risk? Well, After averaging 9.27 targets a game over his first six seasons, Evans has averaged 6.97 targets a game over his last two, but he’s continued to thrive thanks to remarkable — and perhaps unsustainable — efficiency. The Buccaneers’ offensive line has taken some major personnel hits; will it give Tom Brady enough time to consistently find Evans downfield? (Evans’ average depth of target last year: 13.0 yards.) And what happens if Brady, who’ll be the first QB of the Super Bowl era to start a game at age 45, finally tumbles over the age cliff? Evans may not be as safe as is commonly believed.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
DeAndre Hopkins is coming off a disappointing season, to say the least. Now he has a lengthy suspension tacked onto his aging body. While the easy reaction is that this can help him stay healthy, we also can’t dismiss Hopkins experiencing some rust and trying to find his rhythm in an offense that could be in mid-season hum.
– Derek Brown

Los Angeles Rams
Yes, I love Cam Akers. I’m still not willing to be an ostrich regarding the risk he presents. Darrell Henderson could eat into his snaps and red zone work. After the Achilles injury, we might never see rookie season Cam Akers again from an efficiency standpoint. The upside is real, but so is the risk. The question is: Are you willing to absorb it with Akers?
– Derek Brown

San Francisco 49ers
In his five years with the 49ers, HC Kyle Shanahan has had five different No. 1 running backs. Elijah Mitchell played well last year (1,100 yards in 11 games), but he’s not built like a lead back (5-foot-10, 200 pounds), he suffered an assortment of injuries last year and he’s already dealing with injuries this year (he opened training camp with a knee injury and will miss the preseason because of a hamstring injury). He could easily lose work to Jeff Wilson, Trey Sermon or Tyrion Davis-Price.
– Matthew Freedman

Seattle Seahawks
Rashaad Penny was terrific down the stretch last season, carrying a lot of fantasy teams to championships. But the oft-injured Penny has missed 28 of 65 regular-season games in his first four seasons, the Seahawks spent a second-round draft pick on exceptional RB prospect Ken Walker, and Seattle’s offense figures to be one of the most impotent in the league.
– Pat Fitzmaurice

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Trade Analyzer – which allows you to instantly find out if a trade offer benefits you or your opponent – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.