Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football.
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
- ATL -3, O/U 43.5
- Falcons vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The play volume will balance out here. Atlanta is 28th in neutral script pace, but Carolina is fourth in pace in close games.
- Each of these teams loves to run the ball. We know this. Atlanta is first in neutral rushing rate, while the Panthers are 14th.
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota: Mariota has continued his bounce-back play. Since Week 5, he’s 13th in PFF passing grade and 11th in yards per attempt as the QB8 in fantasy. Predictably Mariota’s rushing upside has also played a part in his fantasy success, as he’s seventh in rushing yards and fifth in rushing touchdowns (tied) among quarterbacks. Carolina has been a beatable pass defense surrendering the 11th-highest success rate per dropback and eighth-highest EPA per dropback. Mariota is a high-end QB2 that could flirt with top-12 status.
P.J. Walker: The matchup we know is good for Walker, but after his benching last week, he’s a scary fantasy play outside of 2QB or Superflex leagues. After a brief glimpse of improved play, Walker’s passing numbers have come crashing back to earth. Walker is 20th in PFF passing grade and yards per attempt while limping to 37th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Atlanta remains a defense that can’t stop anyone. The Falcons have been torched, allowing the second-highest success rate per dropback, fifth-highest EPA per drop back, and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Running Backs
Week 9
| Player | Rushing attempts | Targets | Routes | Red zone opportunities |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 13 | 1 | 9 | 4 |
| Tyler Allegier | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Caleb Huntley | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Cordarrelle Patterson: Last week, Patterson returned to the lineup playing 39% of the snaps with 14 touches, 53 total yards, and two touchdowns. Patterson had another score that was called back due to a penalty. Patterson led the backfield in routes run and red zone opportunities. The Falcons could continue to split this backfield up three ways, but it’s also possible that Patterson returns to 59-65% snap share in Weeks 1-3 as soon as this week. Patterson is 41st in yards after contact per attempt, 25th in breakaway run rate, and 46th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 rushes). Patterson is an upside RB2 this week. Carolina has been gutted by opposing running backs. Since Week 5, they are 28th in rushing yards per game, 25th in EPA per rush, and 25th in explosive run rate.
Tyler Allgeier: Last week, Allgeier returned to his pre-Patterson injury workload playing 38% of the snaps while turning his 11 touches into 123 total yards. He nearly equaled Patterson in routes but lost the red zone workload battle to Patterson and Caleb Huntley. With only six targets all season, his value is tied to the early down and red zone work. Allgeier is 26th in yards after contact per attempt and 40th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). With a plus rushing matchup incoming, Allgeier is a decent RB3 with a slight downgrade in PPR formats.
Week 7
| Player | % of Rushing attempts | Target share | Route Run % | Red zone opportunities |
| Chuba Hubbard | 33.3% | 15% | 36.4% | 1 |
| D’Onta Foreman | 55.6% | 10% | 31.8% | 0 |
Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard has been listed as questionable and is expected to play. He’ll possibly return to the 1A role he served in this backfield in Week 7 before departing with an injury. Before leaving Week 7’s game, Hubbard had out snapped Foreman 22 to 14. He still finished with a higher route run rate despite the missed time. Hubbard should split the early down work with Foreman and own the majority of the passing down work. Take this with a grain of salt considering the small sample (15 carries), but Hubbard has been efficient with his work in 2022. He’s ranked second in yards after contact per attempt and third in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). The Falcons can be run on as Foreman demonstrated in their last meeting. Atlanta done a good job of limiting big plays ranking seventh in explosive run rate allowed, but any ground game that is willing to feed their guys volume can move the ball. Atlanta is also 26th in EPA per rush, 29th in adjusted line yards, and 17th in second-level yards. The Falcons are seventh in rushing touchdowns and 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Hubbard is a low-end RB2/high-end RB3.
D’Onta Foreman: Foreman is gamescript sensitive, as we saw last week with the Panthers getting truck sticked by the Bengals. In Week 7, Foreman played 54% of snaps with 17 touches and 145 total yards. There’s noise there with Hubbard leaving the game, but projecting Foreman for 40-45% of the snaps this week with 12-15 touches isn’t outlandish. Foreman has been an effective rusher when called upon this year, ranking 29th in yards after contact per attempt, 24th in breakaway rate, and 38th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Foreman is a touchdown-dependent RB3 that could easily finish inside the top-24 running backs this week if he scores and break at least one long run.
Wide Receivers
Drake London: Wash. Rinse. Repeat. It’s another week of me whining about London’s lack of volume. He’s still eighth in Target share (29.0%) and seventh in target per route run rate (31.5%). London has dipped to 32nd in yards per route run as his aDOT has dropped to 10.3 (68th). He still hasn’t surpassed 50 receiving yards since Week 3, which coincidentally was his last finish inside the top 36 wide receivers (WR31). London is 18th in red zone targets this season with only two touchdowns to show for it, so he’s a touchdown regression candidate. London will run about 83% of his routes against Donte Jackson (78% catch rate, 85.5 passer rating) and Jaycee Horn (50% catch rate, 37.9 passer rating). London is a WR4/5.
D.J. Moore: After rising from the grave in Weeks 7-8 as the WR9 and WR5 in fantasy, Moore was buried again last week. He finished with six targets but only converted them into two receptions and 24 receiving yards (WR51). Since Walker has taken the reigns, though, Moore is 24th in PFF receiving grade, 15th in yards per route run, and 14th in receiving yards (minimum 15 targets). Moore is tenth among wide receivers in deep targets and has seen three of his five red zone targets with Walker. He’ll run about 66% of his routes against Darren Hall (73.3% catch rate, 131.0 passer rating) and Cornell Armstrong (66.7% catch rate, 108.4 passer rating). Moore is a WR2.
Terrace Marshall vs Dynasty Ranks
(After Week 9)pic.twitter.com/yILjbhpcJz— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 6, 2022
Terrace Marshall: My truther heart is beating furiously these days. Marshall is flashing the promise that he displayed as a draft prospect. Since Week 7, he’s been a full-time player with a 20.9% Target share, 28% air yard share, and 45.5% of the end zone target volume. Over the last three games, he’s 21st in PFF receiving grade and 28th in yards per route run (minimum ten targets) as the WR31 in fantasy. Marshall will run about 92% of his routes against Hall and Armstrong as a WR3 this week.
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts: After begging and pleading with the fantasy gods, Pitts has a pulse again in fantasy. Last week he led all tight ends and wide receivers in air yards, with Davante Adams finishing second (14 air yards away). Yes, Pitts only finished the week with 27 receiving yards, but his 30.4% Target share (seven targets) and downfield usage are fantastic. Since Week 6, Pitts is the TE9 in fantasy with a 30.3% Target share (first), 36.7% air yard share (first), 0.68 weighted opportunity (first), and 1.82 yards per route run (19th, minimum five targets). Pitts is a top-five tight end in Week 10. Carolina is 28th in DVOA against the position allowing the fourth-highest catch rate and 13th-most fantasy points to slot tight ends (Pitts 41.1% slot).
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
