2022 Fantasy Baseball ADP Recap: Round 2
As we head into the new year and ramp up the 2023 fantasy baseball draft prep, let’s look back at the early rounds of the 2022 drafts. Part 2 of my five-part series will review each pick of the first five rounds. This series will focus on 12-team leagues, so 60 players are discussed, and will use end-of-draft season ADP (average draft position) from CBS. I chose CBS over ESPN and Yahoo as some of the ADP was wonky, and this made the most sense for this exercise.
Looking back on what went right and wrong from the previous season is an excellent exercise before digging into the 2023 fantasy baseball research. So we will dig in and see what players were worth the draft day price. Which players were busts? And even which players were major hits that likely helped fantasy players win leagues.
The results of a draft pick can vary from format to format so I will focus on 5×5 ROTO formats, but the information should also help points leagues and H2H players. If you have any further questions on the analysis by rounds or more for your 2023 season, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter. But first, let’s look at picks 13-24 of the 2022 draft season.
2022 Fantasy Baseball Average Draft Position Takeaways: Second Round
Devers is one of the most consistent early-round targets year in and year out. He did not disappoint in 2022. Sure he didn’t have his MVP-caliber season of 2021, but last season he still hit 27 home runs with 84 runs scored and 88 RBI. Those numbers are great, and he hit .295, which was Devers’s best batting average since 2019. Devers also lowered his strikeout rate to 18.6%, which was his best since 2019-another full and safe season from Devers.
Tucker once again had an impressive fantasy season with another 30 home runs (same as 2021), but he improved his stolen bases to 25. If there had to be a disappointment with Tucker, it would be his .257 batting average, but that coincided with a minuscule .261 BABIP, much lower than his career norms. However, Tucker’s quality of contact metrics was in line with previous seasons, so I expect the batting average to improve heading into 2023.
Not much to say for Buehler. It was a lost season for the Dodgers’ ace as he made 12 starts and looked off most of the season. It turned out he was injured and needed Tommy John Surgery which ended his season prematurely.
16. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL – OF)
Acuna got a late start to the season as he was recovering from ACL surgery, but he did not disappoint in the end. He hit .266 with only 15 home runs over 119 games but did steal 29 bases which were the second most in his career. Sure, some would have hoped for more power, but coming off the injury, the power was ok, and the steals were much more than most expected. The quality of contact metrics was a little below his career norms but still very strong, and the power should come back in 2023, as he should be healthy and ready to roll on Opening Day.
Mad Max had another strong season with an incredible 2.29 ERA and 26.4% K-BB, but Max had a few concerns. He was battling injuries throughout the season, resulting in only 23 starts and 145.1 innings pitched. They were a quality 145.1 innings, but much more is expected of Max, especially with such a high draft pick.
18. Brandon Woodruff (MIL – SP)
Woodruff gave fantasy managers a scare early in the season with his early injury, but he finished another strong fantasy season once he was good to go. Woodruff had a 3.05 ERA, which gives him three straight seasons with an ERA of 3.05 or lower. Woodruff also had a 1.07 WHIP, and 23.9% K-BB over his 153.1 innings pitched. He appears to have worked through his freakish hand injury and should be in line for another strong season ahead.
Robert had another season that left fantasy managers wanting more. He battled a hand/wrist injury off and on throughout the season. Robert played in only 98 games, sadly the most in his young career. He still hit for a strong batting average of .284 to go with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Robert improved his strikeout rate to 19.2% but did not play enough games for the draft price.
Injuries derailed Albies for most of the 2022 season. He only played 64 games, producing a .247 batting average with eight home runs and three stolen bases. Albies’ quality of contact took quite a hit, with a 5.4% barrel rate and 28.6% hard-hit rate. Not the season fantasy managers wanted when drafting Albies.
Machado had another strong fantasy season as he racked up 32 home runs, 100 runs scored, 102 RBI, and a strong .298 batting average. Machado even threw in nine stolen bases. Machado perennially puts up substantial power numbers with plenty of counting stats. He also played 150 games and has proven to be a reliable fantasy source playing in 150 or more games in seven straight seasons, excluding the shortened 2020 season when he played in all 60 games.
In Olson’s first season with the Braves, he did not disappoint as he flexed his muscle again with 34 home runs while driving in 103. Sure his batting average dropped to .240, but he has never been the .271 hitter we saw in 2021. Olson’s strikeout rose to 24.3%, but he set a career-high maxEV of 116.8 mph with an excellent 13.6% barrel rate and 50.9% hard-hit rate. Olson provided the power and run production we expected year in and year out.
After an injury-riddled 2021 season, Bieber reminded everyone why he is an elite fantasy ace. In 2022 Bieber made 31 starts, throwing 200 innings on his way to a 2.88 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, and 20.5% K-BB. Bieber was elite again, and the injury concerns should be a thing of the past after his 2022 season.
Judge put together one of the best fantasy seasons in quite some time and was a league winner for so many. Judge put up an MVP season with a stat line of .311-62-133-131-16. He played in a career-high 157 games and has now played in at least 148 games in back-to-back seasons. That makes Judge one of the most sought-after fantasy picks in 2023.
Conclusion:
Round 2 of the 2022 fantasy season was about avoiding the injury minefield. Buehler, Scherzer, Albies, and Robert were all disappointed for fantasy managers that took an early draft pick on them. If you avoided those four, then you were sitting pretty. There were two ultra-consistent third basemen in Devers and Machado to go with some elite outfielders in Tucker and Acuna. Woodruff and Bieber were vital SP1 targets for most as well. Last but not least, Judge was the pick of the 2022 draft season and helped many win fantasy championships.
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