For a professional athlete, a contract year is monumental. Many players get one opportunity in their career to cash in to earn generational money on a large free-agent deal and much of that earning power depends on how you perform in the season prior to hitting the open market.
There’s little doubt that a contract year adds additional pressure. Some undoubtedly feel it more than others and not every situation is the same. Player A may have a lengthy history of elite production that will secure a big bag regardless of contract-year performance while Player B might need a strong bounce-back season whether it be due to injury or performance leading up to the contract year.
You don’t have to look far to see just how much a contract year can affect a free-agent contract. The New York Yankees offered Aaron Judge a seven-year, $213.5 million contract extension prior to the 2022 season, compensating the outfielder for his work prior to his contract year. Judge not only balked at the offer but went on to set an AL record with 62 home runs in 2023. The end result was a nine-year, $360 million deal once Judge hit free agency. He added $146.5 million on his next deal.
However, it can also go the other way. Slugger Joey Gallo entered a contract year in 2022 and flopped to a .160 average and just 19 home runs on the season. He still managed a solid one-year, $11 million deal with the Twins, but what if Gallo hit 38-plus homers as he did in three of the previous four full seasons? After all, he’s an excellent defender with a cannon for an arm, but his contract-year work at the dish was putrid.
While there’s motivation to produce in a contract year, that notion is largely irrelevant when it comes to fantasy baseball. Every player has the motivation to perform or risk losing their job. Of course, this doesn’t just apply to professional athletes.
However, if you’re bullish on contract-year players, let’s take a look at some names you should target on draft day. We’ll leave the Shohei Ohtanis and Clayton Kershaws of the world out of the equation as those are the types of players that are locks to get a big deal or are already financially secure.
Let’s dial in on some names that are looking for their first big contract heading into the 2024 season. Below is a closer look at Lucas Giolito.
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Contract-Year Players to Buy in 2023: Lucas Giolito
*This list does not include those with mutual or club options in their contracts for 2024.
Lucas Giolito (SP – CHW)
If Lucas Giolito’s contract year came after any of the 2019, 2020, or 2021 seasons, he would have made a boatload of dough. After a tough 2022 campaign, he enters a crucial contract year in 2023.
Giolito posted an ERA between 3.41 and 3.53 from 2019-2021 but slipped to a 4.90 mark in 2022 while his strikeout rate dipped, his walk rate increased, and his innings per start slipped. However, there are signs he can bounce back in a contract year.
First, the right-hander’s 4.06 FIP was well below that 4.90 ERA figure, as was his 4.23 xERA and rock-solid 3.79 SIERA. Second, Giolito’s .340 BABIP was miles above his .279 career mark. Sure, he ranked in the league’s 41st percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, but that’s some seriously poor batted-ball luck.
Finally, Giolito’s 3.66 xFIP on the season was tied for the second-best mark of his career across parts of seven big-league seasons. A mild concern is a 92.7 mph average fastball velocity versus marks of at least 94 mph in each of his previous three seasons.
Keep in mind Giolito was far from the only underperforming White Sox player in 2022 under then-manager Tony La Russa. New skipper Pedro Grifol should be able to get more out of a wildly talented ball club that finished 81-81, a dip of 12 wins from the 2021 campaign.
You’ll be able to snag Giolio up far later in drafts this season as he’s trending at a 153 ADP as the third White Sox starter off the board in 2023.
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