By nature, one-league formats are generally thin in talent. Of course, there are the players who transcend all league styles and would be worthy of a roster spot under any condition, but we are effectively slicing the player pool in half by restricting options to either the American or National League and not both.
This is, however, one of the reasons why AL and NL-only leagues have taken on such popularity over the years. Many fantasy managers enjoy the idea of trying to dig deeper and find the overlooked bench player who might earn a starting role. These are the sleepers that help win leagues.
In this particular column, we aren’t necessarily looking at the traditional sleepers. Here, we want the highest reward possible, even if the risk is extreme. In fact, the risk should be extreme. The players’ floors should be at zero — or negative if we consider the possibility of a demotion to the Minor Leagues. As long as the potential for a massive payoff is there, we want to consider them.
We want to grab a lottery ticket that has a chance to hit the jackpot.
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Lottery Tickets for AL-Only Leagues
American League
Let’s start with arguably the biggest risk-reward player in Major League Baseball, not just the American League. Adalberto Mondesi could legitimately lead all other players in one category, and it is one of the most difficult to fill regularly: stolen bases. That, alone, gives him extreme upside, where he would vault up the player rankings if he can deliver on the speed promised long ago.
Of course, injuries and inconsistency have derailed him, and he doesn’t even have a starting position on his new team. Still, we have seen stolen base specialists deliver value for fantasy baseball teams in the past. Mondesi is a player that can convert from “specialist” to starter simply by returning to his prior form. Let’s not forget that when he swiped 43 bags, he also hit a respectable .263.
The start of Jarred Kelenic’s Major League Baseball career has been nothing short of frightening. He has hit a combined .168 through 147 games and would need to collect hits in 20 consecutive at-bats just to move his career average to .200.
The good news for Kelenic is that the Mariners are not giving up on him yet. Despite being demoted in each of the last two years, he is still competing for a role with the team and remains young enough to blossom into a full-time contributor. In addition to an expected increase in batting average — simply out of positive correction — Kelenic also boasts some speed that would help carry his value if he can get on base more regularly. If not, then there is likely no future for him in Seattle.
It won’t take much — i.e., a solid Spring Training — for fantasy players to start to notice Shintaro Fujinami and at that point, it might be too late. Fujinami is on this list simply because of his wide range of outcomes. Could he be a complete bust? Definitely. Could he be a superstar? Absolutely. That is what makes him a lottery ticket.
Even among Major League circles, Fujinami is viewed as a high-risk/reward option, but he had an overpowering fastball that hits 101 mph. He was once considered a future superstar in Japan, as he was selected first overall in the 2012 draft. Perhaps the best value he can serve fantasy managers is opportunity, as he threw 107.1 innings last year and should not be held back by extreme innings limits.
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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.