Spring Training and the World Baseball Classic are both in full swing, marking the true start of fantasy baseball draft season. Each new season brings the hope of a title to every team, the fans and fantasy baseball managers. However, a gigantic first step in achieving that fantasy championship is nailing the draft, and your chances of doing so move up when you take the players you genuinely believe are primed for a breakout season.
Taking “your guys” and honing in on upside as the draft progresses maximizes your chance at getting the high-value studs who push your squad into title contention. Our featured analysts are back today to share who their must-haves are as we enter the season. Read on to see which breakout candidates you shouldn’t pass on.
- Fitz’s Positional Primers
- Justin Mason’s Draft Day Cheat Sheet
- Players the Experts Draft
- Latest Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft
Fantasy Baseball Must-Have Players for 2023
Who is the one starting pitcher outside the top 30 in starting pitcher ADP you are targeting as a must-have on all your teams and why?
Blake Snell (SP – SDP)
“I’m buying back in on Blake Snell for 2023. The 30-year-old has taunted fantasy managers for years with bouts of inconsistency mixed with enormous potential. While the overall numbers last season look uninspiring (8-10 record, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP), a look under the hood reveals the potential for much greater things in 2023. For the second consecutive season, Snell struggled in the first half of the season before finishing strong in the second half. In 11 games in August and September last season, Snell struck out 87 batters in just 61 innings while sporting an elite 2.51 ERA, 1.95 FIP, 2.48 xFIP, and 1.07 WHIP while featuring his breaking balls more and reducing the use of his often-ineffective changeup. Snell has won a Cy Young Award in the past, has looked good in spring training thus far, and plays for a team in win-now mode in San Diego. That’s a lot to like for a pitcher being drafted outside the top 30 at his position with an ADP around 112.”
– Lucas Spence (Pitcher List)
Justin Steele (SP – CHC)
“Justin Steele is an underrated pitcher going super late in drafts (ADP 291), and I continuously find myself drafting him with my last pick. With only 176 MLB innings under his belt, he strikes out a batter per inning, and he should have a sub-4.00 ERA. Steele showed some improvement in walk rate in 2022, and his Statcast page shows that he limits hard contact. It’s not like the Cubs have a plethora of other starters they’re going to play over him, so health permitting, he will end up on many of my fantasy teams this season.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Lance Lynn (SP – CWS)
“Lance Lynn is going as the 40th SP overall and there are very few arms in that range that have the track record of Lynn. Many are down on Lynn after a dreadful beginning to 2022 that saw his ERA of 7.50 over his first 7 starts. After that abomination, he turned in a sparkling 2.52 ERA over his final 14 starts. His K rate is still strong and he is a #2 starting pitcher going at #4 value.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Lucas Giolito (SP – CWS)
“Lucas Giolito burned me in 2022, but I am allllll the way back in for 2023 because of his price tag. Sure, Giolito’s ERA was close to 5.00 last season, but his xFIP and SIERA were 3.66 and 3.79, respectively. There are some concerning numbers, though. His swinging strike rate was down, his WHIP jumped to 1.44 from 1.10 the year before, and his Statcast page, which was a bright red beacon in 2021, was a concerning shade of blue last year. But he’s in a contract year, reportedly came into camp down 35 pounds, and is, at the very least, due for some regression. Even modest projections have him at 175 innings, 188 strikeouts, and an ERA around 4.00. If he is even slightly better than that, he’s a steal at an ADP of 140 (56th pitcher).”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Joe Ryan (SP – MIN)
“It’s a good thing the limit for pitchers is outside the top 30 instead of the top 50, because the available arms get ugly fast. Going 44th this year is Joe Ryan, a pitcher I’m drafting wherever possible. Ryan had a 3.55 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 147 innings in 2022, winning 13 games and striking out 151 batters. Those are perfectly fine numbers for a young pitcher, but they may be just the beginning. Ryan spent the offseason working with Driveline, aiming to develop his secondary pitches. and give up fewer home runs. The results have been promising early this spring, with teammates raving about his new slider and upgraded changeup. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has also discussed letting his starters pitch deeper into games in 2023, which would be in line with an expected leap in Ryan’s workload in his second full season. It all adds up to a potential high-end SP3 (or even an SP2 if everything breaks the right way) who’s only being drafted like a mid-SP4.”
– Ryan Wormeli (FantasyPros)
Beyond our fantasy baseball content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball draft season.
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