The 2023 NFL Draft is still several weeks away. However, the No. 1 overall pick has been a hot topic for the past two months. Following the Houston Texan’s Week 18 win over the Indianapolis Colts, the Chicago Bears secured the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Alabama’s Bryce Young is considered the top quarterback and overall prospect in this year’s draft class. Therefore, it’s no surprise that multiple teams have contacted the Bears about the top draft pick. While several teams need a quarterback this year, there are three prime trade partners for the Bears: the Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Las Vegas Raiders.
Today, I look at what it would cost the Texans to acquire the No. 1 overall pick.
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Current Quarterback Situation
Houston’s quarterback situation has been a mess over the past few years. They traded away Deshaun Watson last offseason after he sat out the entire 2021 season. Davis Mills has started most of the games over the past two years, posting a 5-19-1 record as the starter.
Behind him on the depth chart are Jeff Driskel and Kyle Allen. Both veteran quarterbacks are free agents this offseason. While the Texans could re-sign one of the veterans this offseason, they could also overhaul the quarterback room.
While Mills has had some solid moments in his NFL career, he is not a franchise quarterback. If the Texans draft Young, expect them to add an experienced backup behind the rookie. Houston could then look to trade Mills for a Day 3 draft pick.
Draft Capital
While there is no hard and fast rule with trading draft capital, there are two trade charts. Jimmy Johnson created the original trade chart in the early 1990s. Meanwhile, Rich Hill made an updated trade chart several years later. I prefer the Johnson trade chart, but both are useful tools.
The Texans have 10 picks in the 2023 NFL, including five in the top 75. Below, I break down the total trade value of the team’s 10 picks for both trade charts.
|
The Team’s Draft Picks |
Johnson Trade Chart Value |
Hill Trade Chart Value |
|
Round 1, Pick 2 |
2600 |
717 |
|
Round 1, Pick 12 |
1200 |
347 |
|
Round 2, Pick 33 |
580 |
180 |
|
Round 3, Pick 65 |
265 |
78 |
|
Round 3, Pick 73 |
225 |
65 |
|
Round 4, Pick 103 |
88 |
34 |
|
Round 5, Pick 136 |
38.5 |
16 |
|
Round 6, Pick 186 |
15.4 |
5 |
|
Round 6, Pick 201 |
9.4 |
4 |
|
Round 6, Pick 205 |
7.8 |
3 |
|
Total Number of Picks: 10 |
Total Value: 5,029.1 Points |
Total Value: 1,451 Points |
Potential Trade Package
According to the Johnson trade chart, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points. Meanwhile, it’s worth 1,000 points according to the Hill trade chart.
Most teams don’t have the needed draft ammo to acquire the No. 1 overall pick without mortgaging their future draft picks. However, the Texans don’t have that problem. Thanks to their trade with the Cleveland Browns for Watson, Houston has two first-round picks this year and in 2024.
Depending on which trade chart the Texans use, they could acquire the No. 1 overall pick and still have two first-round selections. According to the Johnson trade chart, Houston can send Chicago the second and 33rd overall picks to move up one spot for Young. However, they would need to send both their first-round picks (2nd and 12th overall) to Chicago to acquire the top overall pick, according to the Hill trade chart.
The Texans are in an excellent trade position. They can offer the Bears multiple picks this year, including up to three in the top 33. More importantly, Chicago can slide back one spot and still have their choice of the two elite defensive prospects: Will Anderson or Jalen Carter.
Furthermore, general manager Ryan Poles is an aggressive trader. He made several moves before the 2022 NFL trade deadline. Poles also made multiple trades during last year’s draft. Moving to the No. 2 overall pick gives the Bears options, including trading back again and collecting more draft capital.
Houston could also send Chicago veterans in a potential trade deal. Brandin Cooks wants out of town and would give Justin Fields a veteran receiver to lean on. Another possible trade candidate is Laremy Tunsil. The veteran offensive tackle is entering the final year of his contract. While the Bears would need to work out an extension as part of the trade, Tunsil would give Fields a talented left tackle protecting his blind side.
Fantasy Impact
Young was an excellent player at Alabama despite not having the best-receiving corps. In his two years as the starter, the star quarterback had 8,200 passing yards and 79 touchdowns. He also added seven rushing touchdowns during his time at Alabama.
The Texans only have one fantasy star, running back Dameon Pierce. However, Nico Collins had productive moments last year. Meanwhile, John Metchie III didn’t play as a rookie, but the team has high expectations for him. If Houston can improve the quarterback play, Collins and Metchie could become steals in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts next year.
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.