Happy Monday. We are now over two full weeks into the season, and players’ stock for dynasty leagues is changing rapidly. Obviously, if you are playing a dynasty league, you are playing the long game. But that doesn’t mean some players have not seen their dynasty stock already moving this year.
Each week we will dive in on some players seeing their dynasty stock move up and others who are seeing theirs fall. You came for the players so let’s get to them!
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Dynasty Baseball Stock Report
Here are the dynasty stock risers and fallers for Week 3.
Stock Up
While Ryan Mountcastle may only have a .234 batting average and a .261 OBP, his performance this year does not exactly reflect that. Mountcastle is making contact on pitches in the zone at a 90.3 percent rate which is up nearly 10 percentage points from last year.
Additionally, Mountcastle is getting to his game power more this year. He has six home runs already in just 69 plate appearances and has even chipped in two stolen bases. Mountcastle has decreased his ground ball rate by over ten percentage points, which has allowed him to get to those home runs.
If Mountcastle can sustain even part of his 25 percent barrel rate, 94.9 mph average exit velocity, and 56.3 percent hard-hit rate, he should easily hit 30 home runs this year.
It is crazy that people were willing to write off a 21-year-old Wander Franco after just being okay as a rookie last year. Many just assumed Franco would be a high hit tool guy without much power or speed that could provide for fantasy.
Well, now as a 22-year-old, Franco looks like a stud. He makes some of the best contact of any player in baseball and already has four home runs and three stolen bases in 66 plate appearances.
Franco currently has a 15.1 percent barrel rate which is up from his 4.6 percent rate last year. Franco is hitting the ball harder than ever and has not sacrificed any contact in doing so. We are looking at a first-round dynasty-caliber player.
Pablo Lopez has reinvented his arsenal this offseason with a new sweeper and a much-improved four-seam fastball. Lopez’s sweeper sits in the mid-80s and gets a ton of whiffs. His four-seam velocity has been up two mph and is averaging over 95 now.
Through 26 innings this year, Lopez has 33 strikeouts and a 1.73 ERA. He has walked just six batters and looks like He could be a high-end SP2 moving forward. Lopez is just 27 years old and really blossoming with the Twins after being traded this offseason.
Stock Down
Nick Castellanos had a major down season in 2022. After his 2021 season, where he hit 34 home runs and posted a .309, the Phillies signed Castellanos to a five-year, $100 million deal. Last year, Castellanos hit just 13 home runs and saw his batting average dip to .263. His strikeout rate did not jump significantly from 2021 to 2022 (20.7 to 23.3 percent), but this year Castellanos is striking out 37.5 percent of the time. It is hard to find many positives in his profile right now which is why his stock is falling in dynasty leagues.
It is just four starts, but Alek Manoah’s 2023 start is highly concerning. Through 19.1 innings, Manoah has a 6.98 ERA and a 1.97 WHIP. He has struck out 16 batters and walked 15. Manoah’s velocity is a tick down but is not as concerning as in Spring Training when he was down several mph. The struggles seem to be stemming from his pitch location. Manoah’s sinker is being left over the heart of the zone, and his changeup can’t find the zone at all. I am not hitting the panic button yet, but I am a bit concerned about Alek Manoah.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
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