Skip to main content

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Analysis & Key Takeaways (2023)

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Analysis & Key Takeaways (2023)

As Free Agency has made roster positions more clear and there is more clarity on draft needs for teams heading into the NFL Draft, it is time to have an early look at redraft strategy for 2023.

Using the FantasyPros Draft Simulator, and picking a draft spot at random, I wanted to take an early look at early ADP and draft strategy, whilst also understanding if there are any pivots or trend changes from 2022.

This mock draft does include rookies, despite their landing spots not being clear, to give a clear picture in terms of how our Experts value the rookies in this pre-draft season.

This draft is focused on Standard scoring, meaning no points for receptions, so let’s dive in and get an early look at some roster construction strategies for 2023.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Kit

Fantasy Football Standard Redraft Mock Draft: Analysis & Key Takeaways (2023)

What did you learn from this draft?

I was incredibly surprised to see the run on Running Backs in Round 1. Whilst this is standard scoring, it was a surprise to see only 2 of the first 14 picks not be Running Backs. It felt like the back end of the first round, there were some reaches at the position, which meant value continued to fall down the board.

As the contrarian in this draft, I was delighted to see the run. It is always good to go against the grain. There might be some that would have taken Ekeler, Barkley, or Henry at the 1.03. However, having seen the consistency of Justin Jefferson, despite there not being any points per reception, it felt much better taking Jefferson here and letting others reach for running backs. Especially as I still have two excellent starters in J.K Dobbins and Dameon Pierce, who I got the great value on whilst others were chasing wide receivers.

As a result of this contrarian play, I have a nice Eagles stack in Hurts and A.J. Brown, whilst securing a top 3 quarterback and the best wide receiver on the board, and two top 7 receivers.

I am not sure in many drafts that we will see 20 running backs go in the first 36 picks. However, if that is the case, do not panic and reach for running back. There is no value in taking the RB20 in Round 3 because of scarcity. That strategy will tend to lead you to being outside of the playoffs looking in most years. Especially as we have seen many running backs contribute off of the waiver wire in the last three seasons.

Therefore, the lessons here are expecting drafts to still be running back heavy, but don’t cave into the pressure of reaching for one and blowing value. You can still draft a top team, as I did in this case, without reaching and giving away value.

What area(s) of your draft are you happy with?

There is one area of this team that stands out, and that is the wide receivers. To have a wide receiver corps of Jefferson, Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin, Tyler Boyd, and Skyy Moore means there is plenty of depth and quality at the position. This team has assets it can trade during the season to potentially fill in some holes if injuries occur or to keep on for consistency and bye week purposes.

In having this corps, it means there is plenty of cover should an injury occur or if it takes a while for someone like Godwin to get up to speed with his new quarterback.

I am also pleased to get Hurts. I very nearly took Allen at the 2.10 but felt I could get a top 3 quarterback a couple of rounds later, which is what transpired. To have that stack with Brown and to be able to have a set-and-forget quarterback meant I didn’t feel the need to waste a draft pick on another.

The running back room has some risk but a ton of upside. We know Dobbins can be an elite performer if he stays healthy. Also, seeing how Pierce took off last year, he will be expected to carry the rock more if a rookie quarterback is drafted and brought in to start. However, to then follow these selections with D’Onta Foreman who will lead the Bears in carries this season, and Mostert who should do the same with the Dolphins, whilst having the upside handcuff of Alexander Mattison, means there is a lot of upside in what might be considered a weak running back room compared to others in this draft.

What area(s) of your draft would you have liked to improve?

There isn’t much of a weakness in this group, except maybe at tight end. As this is standard scoring, there isn’t much of an advantage in taking many tight ends and hoping for the best. Instead, I balanced this position with a potentially consistent performer in Pat Freiermuth and added him with someone who could have a huge upside in Dalton Schultz.

In standard scoring, unless you take Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, there isn’t much point in wasting an early draft selection on tight end. They will not make much of a difference to the total points your team will score. I feel like selecting a tight end 9-12 three to six rounds after the first few are off the board is better value, and stacking your team with productive wide receivers and running backs, then getting a middling tight end is much better for your roster construction.

Therefore, whilst the tight end position is a slight weakness, it isn’t giving away much of an advantage except to maybe two or three teams in this league.

What lesson did you learn from today’s mock that you will apply to future drafts you partake in?

This draft reinforces the strategy that following value, instead of chasing the draft and chasing positions by reaching for talent, will yield a better-constructed roster. This team has a higher probability of making the playoffs than any other team currently, due to the balance and a blend of consistency, with upside.

I was surprised to see the run of running backs, even in standard scoring. Therefore, being able to pivot and build your roster differently can yield some great value picks whilst everyone is focusing on the same positions to pick from later in the draft.

If you can walk away with a top 3 quarterback, two top 12 wide receivers, a potential top 12 running back, and some great depth pieces, you will be in great stead to make the playoffs. Remember, you are more likely to find a top-12 replacement player at running back than any other skill position on the waiver wire. Jamaal Williams proved this 12 months ago, whilst Tyler Allgeier and Jerrick McKinnon would have helped you win leagues in your playoffs.

Therefore, chasing the running back position is a real risk. It’s fine to grab an elite one at the 1.03. However, if you are reaching to take Tony Pollard and Bijan Robinson in the first round, you are more likely to fall short of the playoffs as they carry far more risk. It could work out beautifully. However, a pivot at the end of the first round to wide receiver would have left these teams in a better spot with their rosters. Especially as those two teams in question finished in the bottom four of the projected rankings.

Don’t be afraid to be contrarian. Instead, embrace the variance and scoop up the value. If you only take away one point from this piece, make sure it is that.


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.

More Articles

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 2 min read
3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

3 Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Running Backs (2024)

fp-headshot by Anthony Corrente | 2 min read
Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

Fantasy Football Mock Draft: FFPC Best Ball Picks (2024)

fp-headshot by Tom Strachan | 3 min read
3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

3 Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid: Tight Ends (2024)

fp-headshot by Mike Fanelli | 2 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

4 min read

FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

Next Up - FantasyPros Dynasty Football Podcast: How Much is Your First-Round Draft Pick Worth?

Next Article