We have officially made it a month into the season, but it still might be easy to be overreacting to small samples. Yes, a month provides us good data points, but most would not even notice if their favorite player went into a one month slump midseason. There are important things to pay attention to though in the early going. We will discuss those things when talking about the players who are moving up and down dynasty rankings.
Each week we will dive in on some players seeing their dynasty stock move up and others who are seeing theirs fall. You came for the players so let’s get to them!
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Dynasty Baseball Stock Report
Here are the dynasty stock risers and fallers for Week 5.
Stock Up
Jarred Kelenic (OF – SEA)
When Jarred Kelenic’s hot streak first started, I wrote it off as simply that. A short hot streak that could not continue. That has not been the case, however, as Kelenic’s hot streak has turned into a hot month as he begins May with a .308/.366/.615 slash line with seven home runs and five stolen bases.
Kelenic’s seen tangible improvements in his profile, starting with his plate discipline. His out-of-zone swing percentage is down three percentage points. Kelenic has seen his zone-contact percentage rise by nearly 10 percentage points as well.
While it may appear that Kelenic is trending the wrong way with it comes to his batted ball types, he actually is hitting more healthy fly balls. His ground ball rate is up over five percentage points, but Kelenic’s line drive rate is up from 10.7 percent to 25 percent this season. He has also seen his infield flyball rate drop from 22 percent to zero.
Jarred Kelenic has made significant improvements this year that certainly support his strong start. Is he going to sustain this? Probably not, but if he did he would be a first round talent. The expectation for Jarred Kelenic should be a 30 home run bat that steals 15 bases. He still profiles as a .260 type hitter rest of season, but that is valuable and there’s a reason he is a major dynasty riser.
Matt Chapman (3B – TOR)
Few hitters have been as scorching hot to start 2023 as Matt Chapman. Thanks to some strong improvements with his contact rates, Chapman is slashing .384/.465/.687 with five home runs. Many people have asked: “What did Chapman do to cause this change?”
It starts with his contact rate jumping seven percentage points from 74 to 80.8 percent. Chapman’s zone contact has jumped from 79.7 percent to 87.5 percent. Chapman putting more balls in play has allowed him to really get to the power that we have known he has.
Chapman has consistently hit the ball hard, but it has been taken to another level this season. His average exit velocity sits at 96.3 mph, and he boasts a 32.9 percent barrel rate; both are best in baseball. Chapman is hitting the ball in the sweet spot 41.1 percent of the time and has cut his strikeout rate. Everything Chapman is doing backs his strong performance. He is a massive riser up dynasty rankings as a 30-home-run bat who could post a solid batting average.
Stock Down
Gunnar Henderson (SS/3B – BAL)
Gunnar Henderson ascended to top prospect status last year after a stellar 2022 season that saw him debut in the Majors in September. Between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Henderson hit 19 home runs, stole 22 bases, and posted a slash line of .297/.416/.531. Henderson even posted a strong performance in his 132 plate appearance MLB sample in September. The two questions surrounding Henderson were his platoon splits against lefties and his ground ball rate. He has proven the high ground ball rate in his debut was a bit flukey, but he is still struggling with left-handed pitching.
Henderson is showing elite plate discipline skills and not chasing many pitches out of the zone, but his contact skills have taken a step back in the early going of 2023. He has also taken a step back when it comes to exit velocities and hard-hit rate.
I am not overly worried about Henderson, but considering he was a top 30 dynasty asset coming into the season, he has taken a pretty big dip in rankings.
Eloy Jimenez (OF – CHW)
I really thought this would be the year Eloy Jimenez put it all together. He was moving out of the outfield, and permanently to designated hitter. He will definitely stay healthy, or at least I thought so. However, I played myself by having Eloy in so many leagues this season. He’s already spent over ten days on the injured list with a hamstring injury, and not even the same hamstring that kept him out over two months last year. The latest is that Jimenez is playing with a sore leg. The injury-prone label for Jimenez is more than fair at this point.
On top of the injuries, Jimenez has not been great at the plate. He currently has a .225/.295/.350 slash line with just two home runs in 88 plate appearances. His exit velocities are way down as is his hard-hit rate. In fact, his hard-hit rate dropped from 54.9 percent in 2022 to 41.2 percent in 2023. Eloy’s ground ball rate has steadily been rising the last several years and is up to 55 percent in 2023.
In general, Eloy is an easy sell in dynasty if you can grab a top-100 player in return.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.
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