This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different. The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
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Dynasty Addition/Trade Target Of The Week
On the surface, Gausman’s metrics this year are fairly similar to those that he posted during the 2022 campaign. Granted, we’re still in mid-May, but the veteran is sporting nearly identical ERA and FIP numbers, not to mention walks and home runs allowed per nine innings.
- 2022: 174.2 IP, 3.35 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 10.56 K/9, 1.44 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9
- 2023: 48 IP, 3.38 ERA, 2.30 FIP, 12.56 K/9, 1.31 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9
It’s possible the fantasy manager in your league might be concerned by a pair of Gausman’s starts this season. The veteran was tagged for eight runs, seven hits, seven earned runs, two walks and two home runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work against the Houston Astros on April 14. Fast forward to May 4, he gave up 10 hits, eight earned runs, a home run and a walk in 3 1/3 innings in Boston against the Red Sox.
The two starts were tied for the second-most and most runs, respectively, that Gausman has surrendered as a Major League. Since his career renaissance with the San Francisco Giants during the 2020 campaign, Gausman has only allowed more than six earned runs in one other start.
In short, these may have just been aberrations. Outliers. Blips on the radar.
Because despite those outings, Gausman has been as good as ever. He’s given up just three earned runs in his other 40 innings pitched this season, and all three of them came in an eight-inning outing against the Detroit Tigers on April 12 when he struck out 11 batters.
Gausman’s stuff has largely held up as well. In fact, based on his Stuff+, Location+ and Pitching+ metrics, he looks to be that much better in 2023, something that certainly isn’t a surprise with his increased strikeouts per nine innings.
Kevin Gausman In The Last Three Seasons:
- 2021: 192 IP, 109 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 107 Pitching+
- 2022: 174.2 IP, 109 Stuff+, 107 Location+, 109 Pitching+
- 2023: 48 IP, 117 Stuff+, 107 Location+, 109 Pitching+
*Pitching Data via FanGraphs
For reference, Gausman is one of only seven qualified starters this year to rank in the top 10 in all three of those metrics, joining Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, Drew Rasmussen, Dustin May, Sandy Alcantara and Shane McClanahan.
Gausman doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon and looks poised to continue as a top-five or top-10 fantasy starting pitcher moving forward. Both in this season and in the future, especially if his stuff continues to play at this kind of level.
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