Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
- Weekly Trade Advice
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
*Stats up to date through May 29, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Varsho has yet to really be a consistent contributor at all during his first season in Toronto. However, a terrible stretch a couple of weeks ago that saw him go 3-for-33 with nine strikeouts over a nine-game stretch sent his 2023 totals into a tailspin.
In the week since then, Varsho has at least started to shift things back into gear. Over the last seven games, he has gone 7-for-30 (.241) with a pair of homers. He has struck out just once in 30 plate appearances, and his .334 xBA in this stretch is quite encouraging as well. This would be the time to “buy in” on Varsho.
After posting a tremendous 2.00 ERA over his first six starts of the season, Ashcraft was due for some significant regression in the negative direction. Now, a month later, we see the young righty in a spot where his results should drastically improve.
Ashcraft stats completely crashed during a four-start stretch between May 7 and 23, as he surrendered seven or more earned runs in three separate outings en route to a 12.89 ERA and 2.13 WHIP across 17 1/3 innings. Still, his 4.56 xFIP, 90.0 mph EV and ridiculous .429 BABIP in that span indicate he was not nearly as bad as the numbers suggest.
Ashcraft could already be on the rebound. He allowed just three runs on five hits with six strikeouts this past Sunday against the Cubs. That’s not a full return to his form from the first several weeks of the season, but the performance was notably better.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Urshela has been swinging a magic wand at the plate recently. Before taking an 0-for-5 on Memorial Day, the versatile veteran had hit safely in 11-of-12 games during the previous two weeks, posting an impressive .439/.457/.659 slash line with six extra-base hits and nine RBI.
Despite just a 90.0 mph EV, Urshela turned in an outrageous .447 BABIP in that stretch. In addition, his 8.7 K% during that hot streak is less than half his career mark (18.7%). Urshela’s .299 xBA in that two-week run and .261 xBA on the season provide a more appropriate range for where he should be. He’s a solid contact hitter, not a great one.
Gray is walking too many batters and suddenly, the strikeouts are gone. In fact, the 25-year-old hurler has recorded more walks (16) than punchouts (14) over his last four starts combined. Yet, he has still been able to limit the opposition to two runs or less each time out, somehow registering a 2.35 ERA across 23 innings despite a 1.52 WHIP and a mere 13.7 K%.
Gray’s xFIP comes in at an alarming 5.55 for this stretch. In addition to the free passes, that mark is being driven up by a 47.2 HardHit% and 23.6 LD%. He has also been able to strand 83.3 percent of base runners, but given his lack of whiffs lately, Gray figures to get burned soon if he continues to play with fire.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.