Fantasy football is a game of expecting the unexpected. Every year the preseason ADP never looks like the end-of-season results. However, the most volatile position is arguably quarterback.
Last year, the top five quarterbacks in the preseason ADP were Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. Yet, only Allen and Mahomes ended the season in the top five, finishing as the top-two scoring quarterbacks.
Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts was the QB3 last season, while Joe Burrow and Geno Smith rounded out the top five. Hurts and Burrow had a top-10 ADP during the preseason, but Smith was well off the fantasy radar.
So which quarterbacks could be this year’s version of Smith? Let’s look at quarterbacks with an ADP outside the top 12 that could end the season in the top five.
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QB2s with Top-5 Potential: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) | QB14
Last year, the Green Bay Packers traded away Davante Adams and let Marquez Valdes-Scantling leave in free agency. Yet, Rodgers had 26 passing touchdowns, the seventh-most in the NFL. Furthermore, the future Hall-of-Famer had that many touchdown passes despite playing most of the year with a thumb injury on his throwing hand. Unfortunately, Rodgers averaged only 14.1 fantasy points per game last year, the lowest of his career.
Rodgers averaged at least 20.8 fantasy points per game in 2021 and 2020. Furthermore, he has 12 top-10 finishes in his 15 years as a starting QB, including eight top-two finishes.
Rodgers will have several weapons in New York. Garrett Wilson is an emerging star, while the Jets added Rodgers’ favorite receiver from last year – Allen Lazard – in free agency. Rodgers could have a top-three finish this year if he stays healthy.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
